U.S. Launches A Hybrid War Against Russia In Africa

Politico: To counter Russia in Africa, Biden deploys a favored strategy  

As in the weeks before the Ukraine invasion, the U.S. is sharing what it knows about Putin and his paramilitary force. 

As Russia’s paramilitary organization, the Wagner Group, expands its presence in African countries, the Biden administration is pushing back with one of its prized tactics: sharing sensitive intelligence with allies in Africa in an attempt to dissuade countries from partnering with the group. 

The administration has used this tactic with increasing frequency, including in the months leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It serves the dual function of alerting allies to looming threats and placing adversaries on notice that the U.S. knows what they’re doing.  

Read more ....  

Update: US Plans Hybrid War vs Wagner In Africa (Automatic Earth)  

WNU Editor: As predicted by WNU a few months ago. Africa is being prepared to be the next major battleground in the New Cold War. And while the focus in the above analysis is on the U.S. and Russia in Africa, China is also being targeted by the West

The Future Is In Africa

Ken Opalo: Three Billion Africans 

How demographics will shape African states' economic and political futures 

I: A historically empty continent

For much of history the continent of Africa has been largely underpopulated. For example, it wasn’t until the mid-1990s that the entire region’s population surpassed Europe’s (see below). Now the region is in the middle of a demographic boom that will see its population double over the next 50 years to more than 3 billion. By 2100 half all humans being born will be African. It is not an overstatement to claim that the world’s demographic future is in Africa. 

What will a world of 3 billion Africans mean for African economics and politics?  

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WNU Editor: Their birthrates are going to decine just like the rest of the world. But I predict Africa, with its long history of tribal conflict, is going to be the continent where many of the major future wars and conflicts will occur.

African Leaders Say ‘We Don’t Have Food’

The town of Djibo in Burkina Faso has been at the epicentre of the violence linked to al-Qaeda and the ISIL group that has killed thousands and displaced nearly two million people [File: Sam Mednick/AP Photo] 

Al Jazeera/AP: ‘We don’t have food’: Africa’s growing humanitarian crisis 

Leaders urge increased mobilisation to resolve a crisis that has left more than 280 million suffering from malnourishment. 

African leaders gathered for a summit Friday in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, to address growing humanitarian needs on the continent, which is also facing increased violent activity, climate change challenges and a run of military coups. 

 Leaders called for increased mobilisation to resolve a humanitarian crisis that has left millions displaced and more than 280 million suffering from malnourishment.  

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WNU Editor: Just in the Sahel region of Africa millions are facing starvation .... 18 million in Africa’s Sahel on ‘the brink of starvation’ (UN News). The Russian - Ukraine war is being blamed for worsening this crisis .... Russia war will have 'shattering' effect on food shortages in Africa: 'you're going to see governments fall' (FOX News), but the food crisis in Africa has been an ongoing crisis long before the Ukraine war started.

African Food Prices Soaring Raising Fears Of Starvation And Unrest

DW: African food prices soaring amid Ukraine war 

The war in Ukraine is having a drastic impact on Africa. Prices for wheat, gas and gasoline are at record highs. Crisis regions could see things get worse than they already are. 

Every morning, the operators of a small kiosk located in an informal neighborhood in Kenya's capital, Nairobi, bake fresh chapati — a popular flatbread. 

Chapatis usually cost around 20 shillings (€0.17/$0.17). However, customers can hardly afford it anymore. "Chapati costs twice as much now. Life has become extremely expensive," one customer at the kiosk complained. 

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WNU Editor: Grim warnings that this food crisis will be creating the next refugee/migrant crisis .... Salvini Warns Food Shortages Could Cause 20 Million African Migrants to Enter Europe (Summit News).

IMF Report Says Africa Facing Rising Food And Fuel Prices Due To The Russia - Ukraine War

The IMF official has warned that rising food priced due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to unrest [File: Yuri Gripas/Reuters] 

Al Jazeera: IMF: Rising food and fuel prices stoke risk of unrest in Africa 

Experts have been sounding the alarm that the Ukraine conflict could lead to food insecurity across parts of Africa. 

Surging food and energy prices stoked by the war in Ukraine may lead to “social unrest” in Africa, the International Monetary Fund has warned. 

Most countries south of the Sahara are already seeing a slowdown in economic growth from last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact will be amplified by the rising cost of cereals and fuel, it said on Thursday.  

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 IMF Report Says Africa Facing Rising Food And Fuel Prices Due To The Russia - Ukraine War  

Africa Faces New Shock as War Raises Food and Fuel Costs -- IMF  

Rising prices stoke risk of unrest in Africa, says IMF -- AFP  

Ukraine war fallout could fuel unrest in Africa - IMF -- BBC  

War in Ukraine is compounding Africa's food crisis -- DW

West Africa Is Experiencing A Wave Of Military Coups

Politico: West Africa grapples with wave of military coups 

“It looks increasingly hard to argue against the idea of coup contagion," said one expert. 

OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso — It’s a pattern becoming all too common again in West Africa: Mutinous soldiers detain a president, then seize control of the state broadcaster to announce they’ve taken over the country. International condemnation quickly follows, but the junta remains in power. 

West Africa’s new wave of coups kicked off in Mali in 2020, followed by another in Guinea the following year, and then Burkina Faso late last month. Just a week later, gunmen also tried to overthrow the president of Guinea-Bissau in a machine-gun attack that lasted hours but failed.  

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WNU Editor: This unified condemnation is not going to make a difference .... African Union condemns 'wave' of military coups (DW).

US Cuts Ethiopia, Mali, And Guinea From Duty-Free Trade Program

 

VOA/Reuters: US Takes Ethiopia, Mali, Guinea Off Africa Duty-free Trade Program 

WASHINGTON — The United States on Saturday cut Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea from access to a duty-free trade program, following through on President Joe Biden's threat to do so over accusations of human rights violations and recent coups. 

"The United States today terminated Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea from the AGOA trade preference program due to actions taken by each of their governments in violation of the AGOA Statute," the U.S. Trade Representative's office said in a statement. 

Biden said in November that Ethiopia would be cut off from the duty-free trading regime provided under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) because of alleged human rights violations in the Tigray region, while Mali and Guinea were targeted because of recent coups.  

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: The Biden administration said the African countries had violated internationally recognized human rights. 

US Cuts Ethiopia, Mali, And Guinea From Duty-Free Trade Program  

US cuts off Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea from duty-free trade programme with Africa -- The National  

Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea excluded from US trade agreement -- RTE  

US removes Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea from AGOA trade programme -- Al Jazeera

2021 Was The Year For Military Coups In Africa

Colonel Mamady Doumbouya addressing Guineans after the September 5 coup [File: Screengrab] 

Al Jazeera: 2021, the year military coups returned to the stage in Africa  

This year, there were four successful military takeovers across the continent – in Chad, Mali, Guinea and Sudan – up from one in 2020. 

Surrounded by soldiers and with Guinea’s flag draped around his shoulders, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya appeared on state television hours after leading a coup in September. “Guinea is beautiful,” he told his co-patriots, using a crude analogy to describe what would be his vision for the future of his country. 

“We no longer need to rape her. We need to make love to her, that’s all.” 

Doumbouya’s elite Special Forces had earlier stormed the presidential palace and detained Alpha Conde, the country’s first democratically elected president whose election victory in 2010 was once seen as a new beginning after decades of authoritarian rule. 

But the 83-year-old’s time at the helm of the West African country ended dramatically, with a video showing him sitting on a dusty sofa, barefoot with his printed shirt buttons open and surrounded by heavily armed guards.  

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WNU Editor: Here is a good summary of the coups that occurred in Africa in 2021 .... Sudan coup: Are military takeovers on the rise in Africa? (BBC). 

Update: External actors are not helping the situation .... Africa’s Coups and the Role of External Actors (Africa Center).

Military Coups In Africa Are Now At The Highest Level Since The End Of Colonialism

Addios Herald/Wall Street Journal: Military Coups in Africa at Highest Level Since End of Colonialism 

* Military strongmen in Sudan, Guinea, Chad and Mali have in recent months taken power from weakened governments that were vulnerable to foreign interference. 

* Attempted or successful coups in Africa are occurring more frequently as democratic states buckle under pressure from Covid-19. 

* The return of military strongmen in sub-Saharan Africa comes a decade after the Middle East’s Arab Spring protests 

* The Egyptians were unhappy with the prime minister’s leadership, particularly his public openness to the Ethiopian dam, as well as his reluctance to deepen ties with Israel. 

On the day before launching the coup that halted Sudan’s democratic transition last month, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan made a string of daring geopolitical moves. He reassured Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. envoy to Sudan, that he didn’t intend to seize power. Then he boarded a jet to Egypt for secret talks to ensure his plot would have regional support. 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, who seized power in a 2013 coup backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, reassured his fellow general, according to three people familiar with the meeting. 

Upon his return to Khartoum, Gen. Burhan arrested dozens of government officials, including the prime minister, dissolving the civilian-military power-sharing deal that had brought Sudan out of three decades of international isolation. Spokesmen for Gen. Burhan and Mr. Sisi didn’t return requests for comment.  

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Update: Sudan coup: Are military takeovers on the rise in Africa? (BBC)  

WNU Editor: There are no signs that this trend of African coups is going to decrease.

The Taliban's Victory In Afghanistan Is Inspiring Jihadist Groups In Africa

The extremist al-Shabaab group voiced its support of the Taliban 

 DW: Taliban triumph means more worries in Africa 

The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has taken the world by surprise. In Africa, it compounds the worry and fear in countries struggling to crush Islamist insurgencies. 

For over a decade now, there's been a surge in the activities of extremist groups in East and West Africa, the Sahel and parts of southern Africa. 

Many are Islamist militant groups with some form of affiliation to al-Qaeda, an organization the United Nations (UN) has said shares links with the Taliban in Afghanistan. 

Somalia-based media affiliated with the homegrown al-Shabab group hailed the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan in what could be seen as a show of support, says London-based political analyst Ahmed Rajab.  

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WNU Editor: The Taliban victory in Afghanistan is not going to inspire jihadists in Africa, their victory is going to inspire jihadists worldwide.

Update: Here is a good analysis .... As the Taliban controls Afghanistan, 'the idea you can win' is reverberating around terrorist cells (Emily Clark, ABC News Australia).

Africa Is Losing $89 Billion Per Year Through Tax Evasion And Theft

Reuters: Illegal money flows from Africa near $90 billion, U.N. study says

GENEVA (Reuters) - Africa is losing nearly $89 billion a year in illicit financial flows such as tax evasion and theft, amounting to more than it receives in development aid, a U.N. study showed on Monday.

The estimate, in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) 248-page report, is its most comprehensive to date for Africa. It shows an increasing trend over time and is higher than most previous estimates.

The report calls Africa a “net creditor to the world,” echoing economists’ observations that the aid-reliant continent is actually a net exporter of capital because of these trends.

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WNU Editor: Only $89 billion. For one year that is a small amount. But over 15 years we are talking big money .... Africa’s ‘lost $836bn through illegal transfers’.

More News On Africa Losing $89 Billion Per Year Through Tax Evasion And Theft

Africa could gain $89 billion annually by curbing illicit financial flows -- UN Trade and Development
Illicit capital robbing Africa and its people of their future: UN trade and development chief -- UN News
Illicit money flows from Africa near $89bn, UN study says -- Al Jazeera

African Leaders Launch A 55-Nation Trade Zone

DW: African leaders launch landmark 55-nation trade zone

It took African countries four years to agree to a free-trade deal in March. The trade zone will unite 1.3 billion people, create a $3.4 trillion economic bloc and usher in a new era of development across the continent.

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and Benin's President Patrice Talon on Sunday signed a landmark trade agreement ahead of the accord's official launch at the African Union (AU) summit in Niger.

AU commission chairman Moussa Faki dubbed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) deal a "historic" moment.

Read more ....

More News On African Leaders Launching A 55-Nation Trade Zone

Economic 'game changer'? African leaders launch free-trade zone -- Reuters
Leaders launch landmark trade deal at African Union summit -- AFP
AfCFTA deal is 'a dream come true'- AU -- Africa News
Nigeria signs African free trade area agreement -- BBC
Africa Launches Free Trade Pact -- VOA

Is Africa The Next Major Producer Of Oil?

Irina Slav. OilPrice.com: This Oil Boom Is Going Under The Radar

If anyone needed any further proof that Africa is shaping up as the next major hot spot in oil and gas, this year’s edition of Africa Oil Week will provide it. The event launched amid higher oil prices and booming exploration activity across the continent with supermajors and independents both upbeat about their prospects there.

If we ignore the waywardness of oil prices, which served as the basis for Africa’s oil and gas recovery, and which can once again plunge local oil producers into recession should they drop, prospects are bright.

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WNU Editor: Africa is a massive continent .... and mainly unexplored for oil. I for one would not be surprised if major deposits of oil are found.

Middle Eastern And African Leaders See A Bleak Future

GPI

Reuters: Middle East leaders paint 'dark picture' at Rome conference

ROME (Reuters) - When Italy organized a conference focused on the Middle East, the Gulf and North Africa, it promised to look beyond the turmoil roiling the region and instead promote a “positive agenda”.

But many of the 45 heads of state, ministers and business leaders who attended the event over the past three days saw little future cheer.

Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, captured the gloom, bemoaning “a lack of wisdom” in the region, with “no hope” on hand for ordinary people hoping for an end to years of conflict, upheaval and sectarianism.

“Maybe I have presented a dark picture, but it is not as dark as I have explained, it is darker,” said Thani, whose country is suffering an economic blockade by its Arab neighbors, which accuse Qatar of supporting terrorism.

Qatar denies the accusations and the crisis has pushed the tiny, gas-rich state closer to Shi‘ite Muslim Iran, the regional rival to Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia.

The foreign ministers of both Iran and Saudi Arabia addressed the conference, taking turns to trade barbs.

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WNU Editor: A culture of corruption, authoritarianism, tribalism, religious intolerance and extremism, coupled with rigid economic and political structures .... with no real political or societal will to change it .... so yes .... a bleak picture it definitely is.

African Leaders Agree To Create An Emergency Military Force

A pan-continental force is to be set up to tackle rebellions and coups d'etat in Africa. Picture: UN/Reuters

African Leaders Create Emergency Military Force -- Reuters

(Reuters) - African leaders said on Monday they would immediately create a military rapid reaction force to deal with regional coups, rebellions and wars, seeking to reduce the continent's reliance on foreign troops and funds for its defense.

African Union (AU) Chairman and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced the creation of the so-called African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crises, and said South African President Jacob Zuma had proposed the force.

Besides South Africa, which in March had more than a dozen soldiers killed in Central African Republic by coup rebels, Uganda and Ethiopia have also pledged to contribute to the new contingent, officials said at an AU summit in Addis Ababa.

Read more ....

More News On African Leaders Agreeing To Create An Emergency Military Force

African Union to Establish Emergency Military Force -- Voice of America
Regional African force created to tackle coups, wars -- Scotsman
Africa Keen To Create Emergency Military Force To Deal With Regional Emergencies -- International Business Times
Zimbabwe: AU Pledges Emergency Military Force -- allAfrica.com
African Emergency Military to Be Created, AU Head Says -- Epoch Times
Standby force good for Africa -- Observer Editorial
Africa Plans Emergency Force, But Can It Deliver? -- Defense News/AFP

Africa's Energy Demands Are Starting To Skyrocket

Africa's Energy Consumption Growing Fastest In World -- Christian Science Monitor

Africa's energy demands are skyrocketing, but with 64 recent major discoveries of fuel deposits, it is in a good position to meet its needs.

As the sun sets over Africa each day, instead of flicking a light switch or heating up the oven, most people put a match to a kerosene lantern or a burning ember to a charcoal stove.

Africa, home to 15 percent of the world’s population, consumes just 3 percent of the world's energy output, and 587 million people, including close to three-quarters of those living in Sub-Saharan Africa, still have no access to electricity via national grids.

But the situation is changing, and swiftly. At 4.1 percent growth, Africa’s per capita energy consumption is growing faster than anywhere else, driven by improved infrastructure, inward investment, and efforts to tackle corruption.

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My Comment: These energy trends are going to guarantee a few things .... (1) global oil and energy prices will remain high, (2) global warming advocates will be alarmed, and (3) tensions and conflicts will start to develop between different African countries over energy supplies (i.e. South Sudan - Sudan oil deposits, Ethiopia wanting to dam the Nile river, Nigeria delta oil reserves, etc.).

No African Leader Deemed Worthy Of Leadership Award This Year

The Ibrahim Index of African Governance gives each African country a score for overall governance based on various categories

No African Leader Deemed Worthy Of Leadership Award -- CNN

(CNN) -- No-one has been awarded the world's most valuable prize, the $5 million Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, which was due to be announced Monday.

For the third time in six years, no African leader has been deemed worthy of the prize, awarded by Sudanese billionaire Mo Ibrahim's foundation.

"The Prize Committee reviewed a number of eligible candidates but none met the criteria needed to win this Award. The Award is about excellence in leadership." the Mo Ibrahim Foundation Prize Committee said in a press release.

The prize is a $5 million award paid over 10 years and $200,000 annually for life after that.

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More News On No African Leader Deemed Worthy Of Leadership Award

Mo Ibrahim award fails to find a winner – again -- The Telegraph
No African leader qualifies for $5m award, again -- Bloomberg Businessweek/AP
No African Leader Wins Ibrahim Prize -- Voice of America
No Award for African Leadership -- Wall Street Journal
Mo Ibrahim prize for African leadership: No winner -- BBC
No winner of African governance prize -- News24
No winner of 2012 Ibrahim African governance prize -- AFP
Nigeria worst performer among African powerhouses in Ibrahim index -- The Guardian
Africa: Governance Slips in Four African Powerhouses -- allAfrica.com
Why African leaders fail -- Daily Nation editorial

Growing Unrest In West Africa

Summer Of Siege For West Africa As Discontent Boils Into Street -- New York Times

DAKAR, Senegal — Tear gas fired on hundreds of demonstrators in Togo. Mass arrests of protesters in Guinea. Guerrilla assaults against police officers and soldiers in Ivory Coast. Rock- and bottle-throwing antigovernment militants suppressed with force in Gabon.

It has been a hot summer in the capitals of Africa’s west coast. Authority has been challenged — in the streets, by ambush at night, with stones or guns in broad daylight — and the governments have struck back with their customary heavy hand. Regardless of whether those governments are considered legitimate by outside observers and governments, as in the case of Guinea and Ivory Coast, or suspect, as with Togo and Gabon, it has been a summer of siege.

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My Comment: People want to change and to have the same standard of living as the rest of the world .... but because the old governments and political elites are having trouble accommodating them .... hence the unrest.

Religion and Climate Change Fuel Chaos in Sahel

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Africa's Belt of Misery: Religion and Climate Change Fuel Chaos in Sahel -- Spiegel Online

Bloody conflicts in a band of Africa stretching from Senegal to Somalia are hampering efforts to bring progress to the troubled region. Muslims are increasingly pitted against Christians, and nomads against sedentary farmers. Matters are made worse by climate change and a flood of weapons.

The imam climbs across the wreckage that was once his home. Then he bends over. "These are criminals," he mumbles as he pushes aside a few bricks with his calloused hands.

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My Comment: Africa's legacy is tribal/religious/ethnic wars and conflicts. The sahel region is .... unfortunately .... a mirror of this age long conflict.

Hope In Africa

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Africa’s Hopeful Economies: The Sun Shines Bright -- The Economist

The continent’s impressive growth looks likely to continue.

HER $3 billion fortune makes Oprah Winfrey the wealthiest black person in America, a position she has held for years. But she is no longer the richest black person in the world. That honour now goes to Aliko Dangote, the Nigerian cement king. Critics grumble that he is too close to the country’s soiled political class. Nonetheless his $10 billion fortune is money earned, not expropriated. The Dangote Group started as a small trading outfit in 1977. It has become a pan-African conglomerate with interests in sugar and logistics, as well as construction, and it is a real business, not a kleptocratic sham.

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My Comment: A rising and legitimate upper class in Africa .... maybe there is hope for the continent.