Commentaries, Analysis, And Reaction To Yesterday's Sinai Mosque Attack

Declan Walsh and David Kirkpatrick, New York Times: In Egypt, Furious Retaliation but Failing Strategy in Sinai

CAIRO — After militants massacred 305 people at a packed mosque on Friday in a stunning assault on a sacred place, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi responded as he knows best.

Mr. Sisi went on television vowing to “take revenge” and strike back with an “iron fist.” Moments later, Egyptian warplanes swooped over the vast deserts of the Sinai Peninsula, dropping bombs that pulverized vehicles used in the assault. Soldiers fanned out across the area.

But that furious retaliation, which follows years of battle in Sinai against a vicious Islamic State affiliate that downed a Russian passenger jet in 2015 and has regularly attacked Egyptian security forces there, revived the most troubling question about Mr. Sisi’s strategy in the desert peninsula: Why is it failing?

One of the most striking aspects of the carnage that unfolded on Friday, the deadliest terrorist attack in Egypt’s modern history, was how easy it was for the militants to carry it out. In a statement issued on Saturday, Egypt’s prosecutor general, Nabil Sadek, described the grisly scene in forensic detail.

Between 25 and 30 gunmen, traveling in five vehicles and carrying an Islamic State flag, surrounded a Sufi mosque on all sides in Bir al-Abed, a dusty town on a road that arcs across the sandy plain of North Sinai.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Reaction To Yesterday's Sinai Mosque Attack

Egypt’s options dwindling in its fight against militants -- AP
Sinai Attack: For Israel, the Failure by Egypt's Security Forces Is Astonishing -- Haaretz
Egypt Is Failing to Deal With Its Sinai Insurgency -- New York Times
Sinai mosque massacre: What we know -- Aljazeera
Who Was Behind the Mosque Attack in Egypt's North Sinai? -- Egyptian Streets
Mosque attack is a testament to Egypt's impotence in Sinai -- The Times of Israel
Sinai Attack: Egypt Is Turning Into Afghanistan, Where Permanent War Is Part of Life -- Haaretz
Why Are Muslims Killing Muslims? Egypt Suffers Worst Terror Attack In History -- Newsweek
Sinai mosque attack — it was a massacre in every sense of the word -- Arab News
Sufi Islam: What you need to know -- Chase Winter, DW
A look at the deadliest militant attacks in Egypt -- AP

Reaction To Yesterday's Sinai Mosque Attack

Egypt's president vows to avenge mosque attack victims as death toll rises -- Sky News
Egyptians express outrage after attacks kill more than 300 -- The Jerusalem Post
Hamas, Hezbollah join Israel and US in condemning Egypt mosque attack -- The Jerusalem Post
Trump calls Egypt's Sisi offering condolences over North Sinai mosque attack -- Ahram Online
Putin sends condolences to Egyptian president over Sinai attack -- Xinhua
UK ready to help in any way, May tells Egypt´s president after mosque atrocity -- Daily Mail
France's Macron calls El-Sisi after Friday's North Sinai mosque attack -- Ahram Online

Why Egypt Matters

Reuters / Amr Abdallah Dalsh

Walter Russell Mead, American Interest: A Plague on Egypt’s Tourism

The tragic crash of the Russian airliner should serve as a wake-up call. Egypt matters, and we take it for granted at our peril.

Bomb or no bomb? UK flights have started to transport back to Britain some of the 20,000 British tourists who were stranded at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea after intelligence emerged that the Russian plane that crashed over the Sinai over the weekend was likely brought down by an explosive device. But at the same time, Russia has now stopped all Russian flights bound for Egypt, a sign that the country is increasingly taking seriously the possibility that a bomb caused the crash. That coheres with the U.S. intel; replying to calls for caution from the Egyptian foreign minister about jumping to conclusions, a senior U.S. intelligence official said, “He hasn’t seen the information we have.”

As the belief that a bomb was the cause of the crash grows, and as investigators sift the debris and listen to the black box recordings (and as we think of the families of the victims), it’s worth thinking about what the crash could mean for Egypt and the world—because trouble in Egypt could be more consequential than many people understand.

WNU Editor: In terms of importance for the West .... the countries of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are the critical ones .... and Egypt is the weakest of the three. If it should become a failed .... the reverberations throughout the Middle East and Europe will be felt for generations.

Is Egypt About To Explode?

A supporter of the Egyptian army and police throws back a Molotov cocktail at students of Al-Azhar University who support the Muslim Brotherhood during clashes in Cairo, on December 27, 2013. (Reuters)

Egypt: A Tinderbox Waiting For A Spark -- Eric Trager, The Atlantic

Behind the government's political transition and security measures lies a deeply unstable country.

Nearly six months after the mass uprising-cum-coup that toppled Mohammed Morsi, the key cleavages of Egypt’s domestic political conflict are not only unresolved, but unresolvable. The generals who removed Morsi are engaged in an existential struggle with the Muslim Brotherhood: They believe they must destroy the Brotherhood—by, for instance, designating it a terrorist organization—or else the Brotherhood will return to power and destroy them. Meanwhile, Sinai-based jihadists have used Morsi’s removal as a pretext for intensifying their violence, and have increasingly hit targets west of the Suez Canal. Even the Brotherhood’s fiercest opponents are fighting among themselves: the coalition of entrenched state institutions and leftist political parties that rebelled against Morsi is fraying, and the youth activists who backed Morsi’s ouster in July are now protesting against the military-backed government, which has responded by arresting their leaders.

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My Comment: Too many people are trying to exist in a political, social, and economic environment that cannot sustain everyone. Eventually .... the situation will explode .... a cycle of violence that Egypt has unfortunately become all to familiar with in the past few years.

What Is Egypt's Future?

Egypt May Avoid Civil War — But Bloody Conflict Could Continue For Years -- NBC

Blood-soaked protests, burned churches, and a top-level government official resigning in Egypt have analysts predicting mass turmoil, but stopping just short of suggesting a civil war is imminent in the tumultuous nation.

Supporters of Egypt's ousted Islamist president Mohammed Morsi experienced a dizzying display of violence Wednesday — over 600 people have been killed and more than 3,500 injured in clashes with the military — and fears grew that the violence will persist.

"I don't think there's any reason to expect calm for years," said Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "You have a very divided country."

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My Comment: This is going to be a divided country for a very long time. I also expect more violence, terror attacks, Christian persecution on a massive scale, a collapse of the tourism industry, high unemployment compounded by a stagnant economy, a breakdown of the central government in places like the Sinai, and overall political instability for years. Some are wondering if this means another 30 years of military rule and control .... on this point I am in complete agreement with.The Arab Spring is definitely dead, and what is now replacing it is Islamic extremism on the periphery and harsh military rule.

Egypt's Problems Are Insurmountable

Egypt’s New Cabinet Faces Overwhelming Economic Troubles -- Ahmed Kamel, PJ Media

Mired in political and economic dilemmas, the new government taking the helm following a year of unfulfilled pledges is faced with highly sensitive problems: fuel subsidies and a mammoth state budget deficit top the long list of issues facing Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi.

The economic situation will be the toughest challenge facing the new government: the state budget exceeds LE200 billion ($28.5 billion), while a high unemployment rate and inflationary pressures are taking their toll on the cash-strapped country.

Subsidy schemes, wages, and debt servicing devour 75 percent of the government’s outlays annually, according to the Finance Ministry. As 40 percent of Egyptians live on less than $2 per day, fuel and other staple subsidies are a must to maintain social peace.

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My Comment: And we in the West are always complaining about our own economic problems .... this sort of puts everything into perspective.

Is Egypt On The Edge Of Civil War?

Egypt At The Edge -- Thomas Friedman, New York Times

In every civil war there is a moment before all hell breaks loose when there is still a chance to prevent a total descent into the abyss. Egypt is at that moment.

The Muslim holy month of Ramadan starts this week, and it can’t come too soon. One can only hope that the traditional time for getting family and friends together will provide a moment for all the actors in Egypt to reflect on how badly they’ve behaved — all sides — and opt for the only sensible pathway forward: national reconciliation. I was a student at the American University in Cairo in the early 1970s and have been a regular visitor since. I’ve never witnessed the depth of hatred that has infected Egypt in recent months: Muslim Brotherhood activists throwing a young opponent off a roof; anti-Islamist activists on Twitter praising the Egyptian army for mercilessly gunning down supporters of the Brotherhood in prayer. In the wake of all this violent turmoil, it is no longer who rules Egypt that it is at stake. It is Egypt that is at stake. This is an existential crisis.

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My Comment: What's my take .... I concur with the following analysis .... the Islamists are preparing for a brutal fight.

Disturbing Similarities Between The Egypt Of Today And Algeria In The 1990s

How Egypt’s Turmoil Echoes Algeria’s Bloody Civil War -- Vivienne Walt, Time

Millions of voters elected an Islamic political party to run the country, but the military stepped in, forced out the winners of the election and handpicked a group of politicians in their place. No, this is not Egypt in 2013. It was Algeria in 1992. And in the eyes of some, the bloodshed that followed that fateful Algerian decision 21 years ago offers sobering lessons for the generals in Cairo, who forcibly removed President Mohamed Morsi from office on Wednesday, one year after he’d won a democratic election, igniting violent street fighting between members of his Muslim Brotherhood and the massed ranks of protesters that had pushed for his ouster. “There is indeed a similarity,” Faycal Metaoui, a political columnist for Algeria’s al-Watan newspaper, told TIME on Sunday, adding that Algerians had been gripped by the news from Egypt playing on satellite networks all week. “In both countries, the army arrested a political process involving Islamists.”

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My Comment: Islamists have never struck me as the compromising type. They were uncompromising in Algeria in the 1990s that led to years of civil war and bloodshed .... and in today's Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood does not strike me as the compromising type either.

Update: A Vietnam precedent to last week's Egyptian coup?

Another Arab Nation-State Unravels

Egypt’s Crisis Signals the Unraveling of Yet Another Arab Nation-State -- Karl Vick, Time

When British and French diplomats sat down to draw the boundaries of the modern Middle East, one country required no ruler and compass to define it. People lived in Egypt 10,000 years before the birth of Christ. The specific civilization that left behind the Giza pyramids dates to 2,700 years B.C., and a sense of nationhood was embedded so deeply along the shores of the Nile that the quip of an Egyptian diplomat would become a truism: “Egypt is the only nation-state in the Arab world,” Tahseen Bashir famously said. “The rest are just tribes with flags.”

So if the land of the pharaohs is being rent asunder by the forces unleashed by the Arab Spring, what hope is there for countries still in the gestational stage of statehood? Not 10 years ago in Sana‘a, the capital of Yemen, one of the issues facing then President Ali Abdullah Saleh was how to deal with a sheik who had drawn a gun on a traffic cop who had the temerity to stand in an intersection and halt his car, so that traffic could pass from the cross street. The writ of the central government not only had not reached the rugged mountains to the north of the capital, some from the mountains failed to recognize it in the capital itself.

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My Comment: A sobering look not only on Egypt .... but the entire Arab world.

To Avoid Total Collapse Will Egypt Go To War Against Israel?

An Egyptian watch tower is seen close to the construction site of a fence on the border between Israel and Egypt along Israel's Highway 12 near Eilat. Photo by Reuters

Will Egypt Save Itself From Total Collapse By Going To War With Israel? -- Lee Smith, Tablet

Agents of Influence: With the nation divided, in turmoil, and lacking hope for peaceful prosperity, a Middle East neighbor has reason to fear.

The Egyptian military has given President Mohamed Morsi until today to resolve the country’s political crisis or else it will step in. “If the people’s demands are not met,” Gen. Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, announced on Monday, the army “will have to disclose its own future plan.”

Aside from promising that “no one party will be excluded or marginalized,” Sisi failed to elaborate on his roadmap to restore stability to Egypt. That’s perhaps because no one, not the government, not Morsi’s ruling Muslim Brotherhood-aligned Freedom and Justice party, not the army, nor even the protesters themselves know what it is that the 3 million people who have taken to the streets of Egypt are demanding. The unhappy reality is that in all likelihood, the vast majority of the protesters do not want anything except to end the chaos in their country, which they apparently aim to do by gorging themselves on violence.

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My Comment: Zero possibility is my 'off-the-cuff' prediction on what are the chances of a war between Egypt and Israel. But .... if someone came to me three years ago and told me that Gaddafi would be dead, Egypt's President Mubarak will be in prison, Syria will be convulsed by a horrific sectarian civil war, Hezbollah is mired deep in Syria's civil war, Lebanon is on the brink, Tunisia's dictator is gone, U.S. troops are out of Iraq, and all the secrets of the NSA now exposed for all to see .... I would have also said "no-way" .... zero possibility.

Bottom line .... when the situation is fluid in a place like the Middle East .... anything and everything is possible.

Egypt's Economy Is At The Breaking Point

Egypt’s Economic Breakdown Deepens The Crisis -- David P. Goldman, PJ Media

Prospective economic ruin has energized Egypt’s political crisis since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011. Mohammed Morsi’s Islamists and the opposition are not battling in the streets of Egyptian cities about economics, to be sure, but about how to govern a country that cannot meet the basic needs of most of its citizens. Egypt’s pound dropped suddenly on the foreign exchange market Thursday as the country’s central bank announced a drop in foreign exchange reserves during November. If the pound collapses–and it is hard to see how this can be avoided–the cost of necessities will soar and the crisis will deepen.

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My Comment: What may eventually save Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood dominated Egyptian government are his supporters in the White House.

Egypt's Coming Economic Storm

Photo: Mohamed Morsi at UN General Assembly Sept 26. Reuters

The Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt's Coming Economic Storm -- Andrew Natsios, US News and World Report

Much of the news out of Egypt since the "Arab Spring" uprising has focused on the Muslim Brotherhood and its role in the collapse of the Mubarak government; and later its victory in the parliamentary elections in 2011 and slender win in the presidential election in 2012. That Egyptian narrative is gradually changing to one much more complicated and less visible focused on Egypt's economic crisis which will unfold slowly, but may then engulf the country like a title wave over the next few years. That title wave could drive Egypt to a much more violent second revolution.

Compared to the carnage in Libya, Yemen, and Syria, the first Egyptian revolution was relatively restrained. By the end of it, a thousand people rather than tens of thousands had died, the creaky physical and industrial infrastructure of the country remained intact, and the organs of state authority appear to continue to function however corrupt and inefficient. But appearances can be misleading as the country's coming economic crisis could lead to an unraveling of the state.

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My Comment: Talk about perfect storms .... and yes .... I concur with it's analysis.

On a personal side note ..... and an indication of how Egypt is now being perceived by many in the West .... a good friend of mine is an avid "amateur" Egyptologist who travels to Egypt every second year .... and she has been doing it for the pat 20 years. Not surprisingly .... she now has no plans (or desire) to go there for the next few years (if not more). I am sure that her story is one example among millions .... that the Egypt that they once knew is no longer there .... and in its place we now have an Islamic government that has no interest in having people like my friend .... a single women who enjoys traveling alone .... come to Egypt for a visit. As she told me only yesterday when I brought up the topic of Egypt with her .... all good things come to an end.

Sighhh ... and in the case of Egypt she is right.

How Will The Region Be Impacted By The Muslim Brotherhood’s Ascent In Egypt?

Egypt’s president-elect Mohamed Morsi (R) attends Friday prayer at al-Azhar mosque in the old quarter of Cairo June 29, 2012. Muslim Brotherhood supporters flocked to Cairo’s Tahrir Square on Friday to hear Morsi speak on the eve of his inauguration as Egypt's first Islamist, civilian president. Reuters

Muslim Brotherhood’s Ascent In Egypt Has Profound Implications For Region -- Washington Post

BEIRUT — It has been 18 months since the streets of Arab cities erupted with rage against their rulers, launching the Middle East on a roller-coaster ride of hope and despair, victories and defeats.

Perhaps none of the many turning points has been quite as profound as the understated ceremony in Cairo on Saturday at which a bearded and bespectacled former political prisoner was sworn in as the first democratically elected president of the Arab world’s most populous country.

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My Comment: This is a watershed moment .... for Egypt .... Israel .... and the region in general. Religiosity is spreading across North Africa, with Islamists poised to do well in Libya’s first democratic elections this month as well as running the government in Tunisia. For many secularists and religious minorities .... they have reason to be concerned. My prediction .... a year from now the Muslim Brotherhood will be firmly entrenched in all institutions of government in Egypt .... and they will still be supported by a large majority of the population.

Is Egypt The Next Iran?

Egypt's revolution has not turned out as the crowds in Tahrir Square hoped

Will Egypt Become The New Iran? -- Con Coughlin, The Telegraph

Having argued consistently for the past year that the so-called Arab Spring would bring nothing but misery and disappointment, I take no great comfort from the outcome of Egypt's presidential elections. Far from providing the country with the type of Western-style, secular and democratic system of government the protesters in Tahrir Square demanded, all that has been achieved is the election of an Islamic government that is committed to introducing a judicial system based on Sharia law.

It was obvious to anyone with any knowledge of Egypt that, once President Mubarak was removed from power, the contest to choose his replacement would fall between the military and the Islamists, the only groups with the organisational infrastructure to sustain a convincing electoral campaign.

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My Comment: For the moment .... there is hope.

Revolutions Like Egypt's Most Often End Badly -- A Commentary

Hold The Applause: Revolutions Like Egypt's Most Often End Badly. -- David Mack, Foreign Policy

Given the high degree of euphoria and romanticism in the coverage by both Western and Arab media of recent popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, it would be useful for everyone to take a few deep breaths and remind ourselves that revolutions often look very attractive in the beginning. Then they usually go through some really bad periods; the French reign of terror and the decade of political turmoil that followed, the crushing oppression of Soviet communism in Russia, and the unfinished misery of Iranians.

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My Comment: My prediction .... hardship and suffering for the next 3-5 years.

Can Egypt Become Another Iran? -- A Commentary

The Flowering Of Democracy, Or The Birth Of Another Iran? -- Ian Birrell, The Daily Mail

For the fifth day in a row, Egypt was consumed with rage, fear and hope yesterday. The streets of ancient cities like Cairo and Alexandria were filled again with the burning anger of brave citizens, desperate to pull down a regime that has repressed and impoverished them for so long.

With smoke rising from the burned out headquarters of the ruling party, bodies piled up at the morgues and protesters defying tanks by clambering on to them and urging soldiers to join the uprising, no-one should be in the slightest doubt over the significance of these events.

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My Comment: The parallels between Egypt and Iran are striking. The Islamists are the only real effective opposition in Egypt, and with their ability to organize and galvanize their followers into action at a level that no other opposition group can do .... the future does not look good at all.

With Revolution In The Air, What Will Egypt's Army Do Now?

Just Whose Side Are Arab Armies On, Anyway? -- Foreign Policy

Tunisia’s military saved the people’s revolution. But in other Arab countries on the brink -- such as Egypt and Yemen -- the armed forces are far less likely to do the same.

TUNIS—When security forces started firing on protestors earlier this month on the streets of cities around Tunisia, the military stepped in. President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali's orders were to make the protests end, with live rounds if needed. The armed forces didn't listen. Troops moved into the streets and reportedly even deployed helicopters to stop paramilitary snipers who were shooting demonstrators from rooftops. The de facto head of the military, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Rachid Ammar, then prodded President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali into exile, saved the people's revolution, and -- most miraculously of all -- then declined to take power himself.

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My Comment: These soldiers have no stomach to fire upon their own citizens. The dye is cast .... the military rank and file are not going to support what their leaders tell them to do. Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak days are numbered .... and at an age of 84 .... I doubt that he has the stomach to even fight.

Egypt: Washington’s Pyramid Scheme -- A Commentary

From Newsweek:

Spending money on democracy promotion in Egypt only made matters worse. Here's how to help.

Early next month, Barack Obama plans to visit Cairo to address the Muslim world. Egyptians will use the occasion to press him to keep U.S. assistance flowing. There was a time when Egypt—still the second-largest U.S. aid recipient in the world—could have taken such largesse for granted. No longer.

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My Comment: Lebanon is a better example of what can go wrong. After spending almost $1 billion dollars in aid (both military and non-military) in the country, Lebanon is now poised to elect a Hezbollah dominated Government.