Is The Global Food Chain At Risk?

Ashutosh Pandey, DW: Will coronavirus spark a wave of food nationalism?

A handful of countries are hoarding food items to ensure supplies for their population as the virus crisis deepens. The export curbs could prove especially harmful for poorer nations that survive on imports.

As COVID-19 continues to disrupt trade flows and keeps more than 2.5 billion people under lockdowns, some grain exporters, including Russia and Kazakhstan, are taking a nationalist turn by restricting or planning to restrict exports to ensure enough supplies for their own populations.

The export curbs take place against the backdrop of panic buying that has left supermarkets with aisles of empty shelves. The scarcity is not due to a shortage of supplies but to logistical hurdles created by measures to contain the pandemic.

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WNU Editor: For countries like the U.K. that import half of its food supply, this could be a problem .... How are food supply networks coping with coronavirus? (Jonty Bloom, BBC).

The Role That Shortages Of Food Are Having In Today's Global Revolts

A Revolution Marches on Its Stomach -- Joshua Keating, Slate

Which governments are most likely to be toppled when hungry people riot?

People may vote with their pocketbooks, but more often than not, they revolt with their bellies. If you want to predict where political instability, revolution, coups d’etat, or interstate warfare will occur, the best factor to keep an eye on is not GDP, the human development index, or energy prices.

“If I were to pick a single indicator—economic, political, social—that I think will tell us more than any other, it would be the price of grain,” says Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, who has been writing about the politics and economics of food since the 1950s.

Food, of course, is never the sole driver of instability or uprising. Corruption, a lack of democracy, ethnic tension—these better known factors may be critical—but food is often the difference between an unhappy but quiescent population and one in revolt.

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My Comment: This blog has been posting (for years) on the role that food shortages have in fermenting national and international rebellions and conflicts. But this is an excellent analysis by Joshua Keating ... and a must read.

How To Best Feed The World

How To Ensure The World’s Food Supply -- Greg Page, Washington Post

In America’s heartland, farmers are making the agonizing decision to plow down cornfields that have succumbed to the worst drought in decades. The parched land, resulting lower yields and already tight grain stocks remind us that we can’t take food production for granted. They also raise the question: Can we feed a world on its way to 9 billion people, given weather events, pressure on natural resources and changing diets? At Cargill, we believe the answer is yes. But leaders in government, business and civil societies need to take into account three key imperatives to create a more food-secure world.

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My Comment: Reading Greg Page's point on Africa representing about 60 percent of the potentially available cropland in the world surprised me .... I always grew up believing that the bread baskets were in North America, the steppes of Russia, Australia, and Argentina. But he is right .... and that is why Africa's long history of feeding it's own citizens is so tragic .... it does not have to be.

This is an excellent analysis on food production and distribution from a man whose business is food production and distribution, and is a must read.

The Coming War Over Food

The Future Of Fifth Generation Warfare: Follow The Food! -- Thomas P. M. Barnett, Time

Everybody thinks that the future is going to see fights over energy, when it's far more likely to be primarily over food. Think about it: The 19th century is the century of chemistry and that gets us chemical weapons in World War I. The 20th century is the century of physics and that gets us nuclear weapons in World War II. But the 21st century? That's the century of biology, and that gets us biological weaponry and biological terror. My point: obsessing over nuclear terrorism is steering by our rearview mirror.

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My Comment: An interesting post on how terrorists can wage economic warfare over food .... kudos to Thomas P. M. Barnett for thinking outside the box.

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