What Are Nuclear Analysts Worried About?

Tabitha Sanders, RCD: What Keeps Nuclear Analysts up at Night?

Fresh off the Hanoi Summit, the 2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference kicked off this past Monday, where analysts, officials, and scholars gathered in D.C. to discuss the future of arms control and U.S. nuclear policy. Among the top concerns were the new threat from emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), the future of U.S.-Russia strategic relations after the collapse of the INF treaty, and the status of U.S.-North Korea denuclearization negotiations. Each issue comes with challenges, from human error to technical capability, and many of the first day's panelists admitted that the future of arms control was uncertain.

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WNU Editor:  I am not worried about the big powers and their nuclear arsenals. The U.S., U.K., France, Russia, and China know the dangers involved, and they will maintain the necessary dialogue to make sure that these weapons are never used. It is the other nations with nuclear arsenals that scare me, as well as those nations that do not have such an arsenal but are positioned to quickly develop one. These countries are not transparent, and they look at these weapons as an instrument to intimidate and/or deter their neighbours. In these situations, escalation and the use of these weapons could become a very real possibility.

Can A Nuclear Disaster Occur Because Of A Mistake In Today's World?

Faye Flam, Bloomberg: A Nuclear Disaster Could Unfold Like That Oscars Fiasco

Remember that epic screw-up at the Academy Awards in February? Nuclear commanders might easily make the same mistakes. Uh-oh.

Talk with experts on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, and it soon becomes clear that the biggest threat Americans face isn’t an intentional act of evil, but a confluence of stupidity and error. After all, the most frightening close calls during the Cold War started with trivial mistakes -- a dropped socket from a socket wrench, for example, or a training tape put in the wrong computer.

With nine missile tests just this year, North Korea is quickly advancing the range of its nuclear weapons. The distance record goes to a missile called Hwasong-12, which was launched on May 14. It traveled about 500 miles, but on a steep trajectory that demonstrated the power to have gone more than 2,400 miles.

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WNU Editor: Knowing too well on how mistakes can happen .... I am amazed that a mistake resulting in a nuclear war/disaster has not occurred in my lifetime.

Should California Be Concerned About The North Korean Nuclear Threat?

Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) are driven past the stand with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and other high ranking officials during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father Kim Il Sung, in Pyongyang April 15, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

Alan Yuhas, The Guardian: North Korea nuclear threat: should California start panicking?

As rhetoric between North Korea and the US ratchets up, should major cities on the west coast be worried about a missile strike? Experts say the answer is tricky.

In test blasts, military parades and propaganda videos that show San Francisco and Washington DC in ruins, North Korea has broadcast its intention to be a world nuclear power. Less clear, experts say, is how close the secretive nation is to realizing its ambitions to threaten the mainland of the United States.

As rhetoric between the two nations has ratcheted up in recent weeks, residents of major West Coast cities such as San Francisco, Portland and Seattle have begun to ask out loud: should they be worried?

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WNU Editor: My brother lives south of San Francisco (San Mateo). Since he is visiting us right now (my mom is turns 91 this Thursday) I asked him if he is worried that the Bay area may be targeted by North Korea. His answer .... nope.

Is American Blind To The Possibility Of A Nuclear Catastrophe?

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Mark Helprin, WSJ: The Gathering Nuclear Storm

Lulled to believe nuclear catastrophe died with the Cold War, America is blind to rising dragons.

Even should nuclear brinkmanship not result in Armageddon, it can lead to abject defeat and a complete reordering of the international system. The extraordinarily complicated and consequential management of American nuclear policy rests upon the shoulders of those we elevate to the highest offices. Unfortunately, President Obama’s transparent hostility to America’s foundational principles and defensive powers is coupled with a dim and faddish understanding of nuclear realities. His successor will be no less ill-equipped.

Hillary Clinton’s robotic compulsion to power renders her immune to either respect for truth or clearheaded consideration of urgent problems. Theodore Roosevelt’s secretary of state once said that he was “pure act” (meaning action). Hillary Clinton is “pure lie” (meaning lie), with whatever intellectual power she possesses hopelessly enslaved to reflexive deviousness.

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WNU Editor: Just an impression .... based on no facts but a gut feeling .... but after watching tonight's U.S. Presidential debate I had a flash that Hillary Clinton .... if elected President, will be the first since President Truman to use nuclear weapons.

What Happens When A Rogue State Gets A Nuclear Bomb?

L.A. Times: The Cold War saw decades of nuclear deterrence. What happens when a rogue state gets the bomb?

Barely a week after North Korea exploded the most powerful nuclear device it has ever tested, U.S. defense officials said the secretive country appears to be readying a tunnel for yet another, putting the country on an alarmingly fast-paced schedule to deploy nuclear warheads.

The preparations for what would be its third test this year reinforce growing concern that North Korea may soon have multi-stage ballistic missiles that could threaten much of Asia and, possibly within a decade, an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S.

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WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember .... this has always been the nightmare scenario. No more scenario now .... when it comes to North Korea it is very real.

Attack Iran Or More Sanctions?

Attack Iran Or More Sanctions? A Third Option: Israel And Iran Forsake Nukes -- Boaz Atzili, Christian Science Monitor

An attack on Iran and sanctions are both unworkable. A third option is to create a nuclear-free Middle East. Yes, it sounds far-fetched. But it actually meets the strategic needs of both Israel and Iran. One idea is to relocate Israel's nukes elsewhere, rather than destroy them.

For half a century now, Israel’s regional nuclear monopoly has been its “Samson option,” the one weapon it can threaten to use if all else fails and Israel faces a real existential threat. As a scholar concentrating on the Middle East conflict, and also as a native of Israel, I am not comforted by the nuclear security blanket under which I was born.

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My Comment: The New York Times has a debate on the issue of Israel accepting a nuclear ban. The link is here. As to what is my take .... peace through superior firepower has some legitimacy, and nuclear weapons is a hell of a lot of fire-power for Israel. But will Israel's future enemies listen and/or care on how many nuclear weapons Israel has .... who knows.

Risk That Nuclear Weapons Will Be Used Is Growing

A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile is driven through Moscow's Red Square in 2009. AFP

US Disarmament Expert: 'The Risk That Nuclear Weapons Will Be Used Is Growing' -- Spiegel Online

Anxieties are mounting as nuclear weapons make their way into unstable regions. In a SPIEGEL ONLINE interview, US disarmament expert Richard Burt discusses the growing risk of their use, why allowing Iran to get the bomb could trigger a Sunni-Shiite arms race and how an attack could make citizens demand a police state.

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My Comment: A sobering interview .... read it all.

33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age (Video)

33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age -- Heritage Foundation

33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age is a one-hour documentary produced by The Heritage Foundation that tells the story of the very real threat foreign enemies pose to every one of us. The truth is brutal - no matter where on Earth a missile is launched from it would take 33 Minutes or less to hit the U.S. target it was programmed to destroy.

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Update: The Heritage Foundation's 33 Minutes - The Most Terrifying Movie of the Year -- Blog Critics

My Comment: No surprises in this video .... a good summary on the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology .... but it is still a disquieting thought that within 33 minutes after a missile has been launched .... an American city could be burning.

Is Our Interest In the Hiroshima Anniversary And Our Fear Of Nuclear Weapons Fading? -- A Commentary

Bizarrely, Our Fear Of Nuclear Weapons Has Faded, And Our Interest In The Hiroshima Anniversary Has Dwindled Accordingly -- Daniel Hannan, The Telegraph

While the 70th anniversaries of Dunkirk and the Battle of Britain have been reported in intimate detail, the 65th anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs is passing largely unremarked.

Agonising about the rights and wrongs of the world’s first atomic attack used to be a handy way of filling the August news pages. This year, though – despite the promising peg of formal representation from the Allied governments at the commemoration – coverage has been sparse.

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My Comment: My interest in the Hiroshima bombing anniversary probably started to decline right after 9/11. Why focus on another country's recognition of a terrible event when we have our own to be more concerned about. Continuous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the threat of nuclear terrorism from groups like Al Qaeda and their allies .... yup .... I would have to say that we have more on our plate to be interested in than Hiroshima's anniversary.

As to our fear of nuclear weapons fading .... I will have to say yes and no. The tensions that marked the cold war are no longer there, and our fear of a global nuclear conflict has dissipated with the end of the Soviet Union. Instead .... our fears are now at a lower level .... from nuclear terrorism associated with groups like Al Qaeda to small countries with limited nuclear stockpiles (Pakistan and India) going to war against each other.

So .... should we still be concerned about nuclear war .... yes. Should we be as concerned about nuclear war and weapons as we used to be .... probably not.

Does Deterrence Still Work?

On August 9, 1945, the American B-29 bomber, Bock's Car left Tinian carrying Fat Man, a plutonium implosion-type bomb. The primary target was the Kokura Arsenal, but upon reaching the target, they found that it was covered by a heavy ground haze and smoke, pilot Charles Sweeney turned to the secondary target of the Mitsubishi Torpedo Plant at Nagasaki. Of the 286,00 people living in Nagasaki at the time of the blast, 74,000 were killed and another 75,000 sustained severe injuries. Source: National Archives

Deterrence Still Works For States, But Not For Terrorists -- The Telegraph

If a nuclear-armed Iran is worrying, the idea of al-Qaeda with nukes is appalling, says Alasdair Palmer.

The international conference on "nuclear disarmament" organised in Tehran this weekend by the Iranian government is an attempt to distract the world's attention from the fact that Iran is poised to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. An Iran armed with nuclear warheads, and the missiles with which to lob them at nearby countries, is a very frightening prospect – but it's not nearly as frightening as terrorists armed with nukes.

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My Comment: Are we in a state of denial .... after reading this commentary I will have to say yes.

A Commentary On President Obama's Nuclear Summit

Chinese President Hu Jintao(4th R,front)poses for a group photo with other world leaders during the Nuclear Security Summit at the Washington Convention Center in Washington,April 13,2010 0.(Xinhua/Li Xueren)

Obama's Nuclear Strutting And Fretting -- Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post

There was something oddly disproportionate about the just-concluded nuclear summit to which President Obama summoned 46 world leaders, the largest such gathering on American soil since 1945. That meeting was about the founding of the United Nations, which 65 years ago seemed an event of world-historical importance.

But this one? What was this great convocation about? To prevent the spread of nuclear material into the hands of terrorists. A worthy goal, no doubt. Unfortunately, the two greatest such threats were not even on the agenda.

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My Comment: The paragraph that caught my attention from Charles Krauthammer was the following ....

.... Obama proudly announced that the United States and Russia were disposing of 68 tons of plutonium. Unmentioned was the fact that this agreement was reached 10 years ago -- and, under the new protocol, doesn't begin to dispose of the plutonium until 2018. Feeling safer now? ....

Sighhh ....

A lot was promised .... but only scraps delivered. Such is the real world of international relations and politics. But at least President Obama tried .... I have to give him credit for that .... I guess.

The BBC Has Just Painted One Big Bulls-Eye For Any Terrorist Group Interested In Nuclear Materials

Photo: Sellafield nuclear plant has the world's largest store of separated plutonium

UK Plutonium Cuts Strategy 'In Disarray' - Scientists -- The BBC

The UK's plan to cut its stockpile of separated plutonium is in "disarray", a group of scientists has warned.

The British Pugwash Group (BPG) says the way 100 tonnes of the deadly powder is being stored is "ludicrous".

Its experts fear the stockpile at the Sellafield nuclear site in Cumbria - the largest in the world - could be a target for terrorists.

The government said the plutonium was stored safely and securely but recognised the need to make progress.

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My Comment: We are so screwed.

What A Single Nuclear Warhead Could Do -- Commentary

From The Wall Street Journal:

As severe as the global financial crisis now is, it does not pose an existential threat to the U.S. Through fits and starts we will sort out the best way to revive the country's economic engine. Mistakes can be tolerated, however painful. The same may not be true with matters of national security.

Although President George W. Bush has accomplished more in the way of missile defense than his predecessors -- including Ronald Reagan -- he will leave office with only a rudimentary system designed to stop a handful of North Korean missiles launched at our West Coast. Barack Obama will become commander in chief of a country essentially undefended against Russian, Chinese, Iranian or ship-launched terrorist missiles. This is not acceptable.

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My Comment: This is not the first time that I have commented on the impact of an EMP attack. My discussion and commentary is HERE.