The Old World Order Is Being Challenged By Lower Oil Prices

Khaled al Otaiby, an official of the Saudi oil company Aramco, watches progress at a rig at the al-Howta oil field near Howta, Saudi Arabia, in this Feb. 26, 1997, photo. LJWorld

The Telegraph: The collapse in the price of oil is a challenge to the old world order

We’re awash with the black stuff – so we should celebrate the fact that the pessimists got it wrong

It is one of life’s mysteries that being wrong about everything has never been much of a barrier to success. Take Thomas Malthus, the British theologian: his big idea was that the number of human beings would necessarily grow faster than the supply of food, leading to calamity. There was little difference, in his mind, between people and rabbits: both were doomed to over-breed, over-consume and starve.

Yet this theory, expounded in 1798 in An Essay on the Principle of Population, one of the most influential books ever written, and now also routinely applied to oil and other resources, is bogus. Unlike rabbits, who are powerless to control their environment, the more we need, the more we eventually find a way of producing: the availability of food and oil are determined by technology and economics, not by some law of nature. Modern techniques (such as fertilisers, genetic selection or fracking) mean that agriculture and the extraction of commodities have become hugely more efficient.

WNU Editor: The big economic story for 2016 will be debt and rising interest rates. That (I predict) will be shaking the "Old World Order" more than oil.

World Leaders Comment On 2015

AP /Susan Walsh

Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post: The turbulent story of 2015, as told by 15 world leaders

Here's a guide to a year of conflict and discord, through the words of some of the world's leaders.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras: "We have a great opportunity for a new beginning."

The leftist Greek politician's Syriza party won landmark elections in January. Tsipras preached a new way forward for Greece after years of crippling austerity and compounding debt. But a failure to reach an accord with European Union authorities in Brussels has led to a return to the grinding status quo, which saw Tsipras contest and once more win elections in September, though with a humbler mandate.

The Geopolitical Rules Are No Longer 'In Play'

John Mclaughlin, Ozy: The Geopolitical Rules You Didn't Know About Are Under Siege

In the post–Cold War era, geopolitics can sometimes seem like the Wild West. But despite all appearances, an order governs there. Or rather it has. Throughout modern history, most countries have accepted a few simple rules to ward off total chaos: laws and conventions around land, sea and the air. These rules are not sexy — maritime law isn’t exactly known to quicken the pulse — but they’re as vital to the international order as a score is to an orchestra.

But now, as we approach the 25th anniversary of the Soviet collapse, one of the most worrisome trends is that the “rules” we take for granted on land and sea and in the air are for the first time since then under simultaneous challenge on three continents. The challenges come from Russia, China and a host of non-state actors in the Middle East, which collectively are breaking internationally sanctioned “rules” of normal conduct — and thus adding another element of instability to today’s very chaotic world.

Why is this happening, where is it heading and what should the response be?

WNU Editor: John Mclaughlin focuses on China and Russia .... but the U.S. has not been helpful in "following the rules". U.S. support for the revolution that overthrew an elected President in Ukraine, the development and deployment of missile defense systems, the mess that it has helped create in the Middle East, Libya, an Asian pivot that aggressively focuses on China .... just to name a few. But what concerns me is that in the past there were always back-channels for all of the parties to discuss their differences and/or to defuse tensions. Today .... I just do not see these back-channels in play .... in fact .... we have a situation where no one is even talking to each other .... not even the minor diplomats whose role has always been to keep these "doors open"..

2011 Was A Good Year For Dictators

2011 Wasn't A Bad Year For Dictators -- USA Today

The conventional wisdom is that 2011 was a bad year for dictators. Overthrows of regimes across the Arab World, protests against the Kremlin, the apparent opening of Burma's junta, and the recent death of North Korea's reclusive dictator, support this argument.

I disagree. Most autocrats across the globe are still resting comfortably in their opulent palaces. Plus, several democracies have flirted with creeping authoritarianism. Ukraine, once the post-Soviet poster child for democracy evangelists, got bumped down a ranking by Freedom House. Turkey's Islamist government has shown flickers of authoritarianism. And democracy and clean governance have been found wanting in India, despite its exceptional growth rate.

Read more ....

My Comment: A sobering realization that dictators and the ruthless regimes and bureaucracies that they spawn will be with us for a lot longer than what many of us may hope for.

Where Are The World's Political Leaders?

Our Political Leaders Seem To Be Paralyzed By crises -- The Telegraph

A breakdown of social norms and a potential meltdown of the global financial system have exposed a shocking absence of meaningful leadership.

A crisis reveals. It challenges leaders, and exposes whether or not they have the right stuff. As we face a breakdown of social norms in the UK and a potential meltdown of the global financial system, what can we tell about our current generation of political leaders?

The most obvious answer is this: these crises have exposed a shocking absence of meaningful leadership. This is not a comment on the absurd soap opera of whether the Mayor of London and the Prime Minister were going to break off their holidays.

Read more ....

My Comment: Clearly absent in my part of the world.

The Shrinking Superpower -- A Commentary

US military bases in the world 2007 (Click To Enlarge)

The Atlantic:

While the Obama administration seeks to improve America’s position vis-à-vis Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine, Europe, and Asia, the most critical foreign-policy front of all – the home front—is looking brittle. This development is new, as for almost seven decades – ever since Pearl Harbor—policymakers have taken for granted that the homefront would cooperate with military missions and expenditures. America could build ships, planes, and tanks, and assert itself as the pivotal outside power in many parts of the world, and the home front (despite sometimes outspoken political opposition, as during the Vietnam War) would financially support those efforts. This held true from the time of the end of the Great Depression right up until the onset of our current great recession. The emergencies of World War II and the early Cold War years, coupled with a constantly expanding economy, allowed the home front to write blank checks for our endeavors abroad. But the big question in foreign policy today is, Will this continue in the face of the greatest economic crisis since the 1930s?

Read more ....