Countries To Watch In 2020

Catesby Holmes, The Conversation: Countries to watch in 2020, from Chile to Afghanistan: 5 essential reads

Where will the world’s attention turn in 2020?

The United States’ impeachment trial of Donald Trump and the United Kingdom’s long-awaited Brexit are sure bets. And after the U.S. military withdrawal from northern Syria in October, Bashar al-Assad may well win his civil war this year.

Many other countries will see pivotal events in 2020, too. Here are five countries to watch.

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WNU Editor: The other countries that I would add to this list are .... North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, the Sahel region of Africa, and Libya.

There Are Three Common Factors Behind The Mass Social Unrest The World Is Seeing Right Now

Zero Hedge/DataTrek Research: The 3 Things Behind Mass Social Unrest In Bolivia, Hong Kong, France, Spain, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, And Elsewhere

Social unrest seems to be cropping up all over the world, from Hong Kong to Bolivia and Lebanon; we offer up a 3 variable model to help explain why. The inputs: urbanization, income inequality, and average age. Every country currently seeing mass protests has some combination of high levels of the first two and lower readings for the last. This admitted crude measure also explains why many developed countries’ political environments also seem so fraught at the moment.

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WNU Editor: Apparently there are three variables .... urbanization, income inequality, and average age. In short. High urbanization and income inequality coupled with a low average age are the ingredients that is resulting in a great deal of social unrest in the world today.

Are We Entering A New World Of Espionage And Repression?

Human rights activists and friends of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi hold his pictures during a protest outside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey October 8, 2018. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Peter Apps, Reuters: The brutal new world of espionage and repression

From unconvincing alibis on visiting cathedrals to highly public revelations of their personal details, a new generation of Russian and other assassins and spies are being publicly identified – and often ridiculed – in ever-growing numbers. But there is nothing funny about their antics, nor the way in which a growing number of states appear not to care if they or their agents are exposed. The world’s increasingly repressive dictatorships – not just Russia, but China, Saudi Arabia and others – are tightening their grip at home and overseas, and espionage and murder have become more central than ever to the playbook.

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WNU Editor: Being one who grew up during the Cold War, I find today's environment of espionage and repression to be very mild. But for those who do not have my experience, I do understand why today's generation is worried.  This is something new to them, when in reality it has always been the state of the world since the beginning of time.

The World's Hot Spots Are Getting 'Hotter'

Michael Dempsey, The Hill: Global hotspots are getting hotter

Lost amid the understandable public and media focus on domestic political issues of late has been a sharp uptick in tensions in several troubled areas of the world, many with direct security implications for the United States. Put these boiling crises together with a cooling global economy and there is a growing risk of real international instability.

In Iran, the looming return of punishing U.S. oil sanctions, which are scheduled to go into effect in early November, has threatened Iranian economic stability, fueling a flight from the Iranian rial and triggering a series of public protests. Tensions inside Iran have also been exacerbated by an attack late last month on an Iranian military parade in the southwestern city of Ahvaz, which killed two dozen people and wounded 70 others, and which Tehran blamed on a group supported by the Gulf States.

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WNU Editor: China is my number one concern right now.

Life Is Actually Getting Better For Billions Of People

Science Alert/Business Insider: These 9 Amazing Graphs Reveal How Life Is Actually Getting Better For Billions of People

Things aren't as bad as you think.

It's easy to think the world is ending when natural disasters are pummelling vulnerable islands and politicians are threatening nuclear destruction.

But take a step back and you'll find a more encouraging picture of where the human race is headed - at least from a public health and quality of life perspective.

Across the board, in matters of mortality, hunger, disease, and more, life is getting better for billions of people.

Here is a sampling of that global progress.

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WNU Editor: Can anyone say the words capitalism and free markets.

Is The U.S. Military About To Lose Its Technological Edge To China?

Aircraft CF-02, an F-35 Lightning II Carrier Variant attached to the F-35 Pax River Integrated Test Force (ITF) assigned to Air Test and Evaluation Squadron (VX) 23 completes a flyover of the guided-missile destroyer USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000). US Navy Photo

Defense News: The next Sputnik: Here's why US stands to lose technological edge to China

SIMI VALLEY, Calif. — As defense companies struggle to balance the interests of the military customers with those of shareholders, the Pentagon needs to rethink how it buys or else risk sacrificing its technological edge.

The Pentagon can’t shut its eyes to the fact that a healthy bottom line for defense companies is in the best interest of the military and essential to ensure future capabilities, said Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, speaking on a panel at the Reagan National Defense Forum Saturday.

“I am an unapologetic capitalist and free marketeer,” said Spencer, who worked on Wall Street for 16 years. “One thing we need to be responsible for is the health of the industrial base. It’s a dance that has to be done. You’re out there with a fiduciary responsibility to buy the best gear in the most efficient, best way you can. Now you add in, ‘I have to help an industry in a certain area,’ or ‘I have to make the capital investments myself’ — it flies in the face of full and open competition. But we have to live with that to get gear.”

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WNU Editor: The U.S. is still the world's leader when it comes to military R&D .... U.S. Is Still The World Leader When It Comes To Military R&D (November 15, 2017). But I can see the day when China will be on par with the U.S. .... China is catching up to the US on science and engineering spending, report finds (The Verge).

The Russia - India - China Strategic Triangle Is Changing The World

Federico Pieraccini, Strategic Culture Foundation: The Strategic Triangle that Is Changing the World

While the world continues to decipher, or digest, the new Trump presidency, important changes are afoot within the grand strategic triangle that lies between Russia, Iran and China

Away from the current chaos in the United States, major developments are progressing, with Iran, Russia and China coordinating on a series of significant moves crucial for the future of the Eurasian continent. With a population of more than five billion people, constituting about two-thirds of the Earth's population, the future of humanity passes through this immense area. Signaling a major change from a unipolar world order based on Europe and the United States to a multipolar world steered by China, Russia and Iran, these Eurasian states are carving out a leading role in the development of the vast continent. As part of the challenges faced by these leading multipolar countries, the disruptive events originating in the post-WWII Euro-Atlantic world order will need to be tackled.

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WNU Editor: Yup.

Story Lines That Will Be Watched In 2016

Molly O'Toole, Patrick Tucker, and Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One: What to Watch in 2016

Here are some of the story lines we’ll be watching in the new year:

The Anti-ISIS Campaign

The U.S.-led campaign against Islamic State militants in Iraq, Syria, and Libya continues to grow. The bombing campaign has intensified, the number of boots on the ground are up and European coalition members have increased their contributions. (Not to mention the complicating wildcard of Russian forces in Syria.) Now the White House and NATO want Arab states to boost their participation, which experts say is critical to success.

Pentagon Reform Projects


With one year left in office, Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s to-do list remains chock-full of ambitious reform projects. At the top of the list is his “Force of the Future” initiative to update the Pentagon’s antiquated personnel system. Among the proposed changes are a new cyber-focused “defense digital service” and making it easier for troops to move easily between the military and private sector through corporate fellowships. Perhaps even more daunting is Sen. John McCain’s attempt to overhaul the Goldwater-Nichols Act, the foundation of the Pentagon’s modern structure. If that’s not enough, Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work has 12 months to sell the military and Congress on his “offset strategy”: the idea that future battlefield advantage lies in teaming up robots with troops.

WNU Editor: I would add three more story lines that this blog will be watching .... maritime border disputes with China, the war in Afghanistan, and the economy.

Russia And China Are Asserting Themselves On The World Stage

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin

Michael Auslin, Wall Street Journal: This Is What Escalation Looks Like

Russia mobilizes in Syria while China militarizes the South China Sea, filling a power vacuum created by an absent America.

Vladimir Putin’s air forces are deliberately targeting U.S.-backed Syrian rebels. China is building islands in disputed waters in the South China Sea and militarizing them with airfields, ports and antiaircraft and radar sites. This is what escalation looks like. Either the Obama administration responds to the danger of aggressive powers undermining or directly attacking U.S. interests, or it will risk the erosion of America’s position abroad and invite conflict with Moscow and Beijing.

Escalation takes many forms. In the 1930s, Hitler nibbled and carved away parts of Central Europe for several years before invading Poland. The Japanese invaded Manchuria in 1931 and China proper in 1937 before deciding on a coordinated attack on Southeast Asia and Pearl Harbor. During the 1990s, al Qaeda escalated from bombing U.S. naval vessels and embassies to preparing for 9/11. What these cases have in common is that the great powers failed to deter the aggressors, emboldening them to ever larger actions.

WNU Editor: For the moment it is the big powers .... China and Russia .... who are now asserting themselves with the knowledge that the U.S. will do nothing. Where it will get tricky is when the smaller powers (i.e. North Korea) start to believe the same thing.

Are We Returning To A New Cold War?

Bill Gertz, Washington Times: Russia returns to Cold War posture

Russian military activities and strategic nuclear forces are returning to a Cold War-era posture, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific said Wednesday.

“Russia in the last few months has returned to, I would say, nearly a Cold War level of activity that goes towards our homeland, with long-range attacks, exercises and those types of things,” Adm. Samuel Locklear, the commander, told the House Armed Services Committee. “We also know that Russia will improve their strategic nuclear deterrent on what’s thought as their east coast, which is in the Northern Pacific.”

Russia is also building up its submarine forces in Asia, and Moscow’s military forces are seeking increased influence in the Arctic region, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, Adm. Locklear testified.

The four-star admiral said increasing Russian activities, along with threats from North Korea and China, are being monitored closely with intelligence and surveillance systems.

WNU Editor: This is not a new Cold War ..... it is something else .... and that is what scares me. During the Cold War there were numerous safeguards and back channels in place to prevent a misunderstanding that could lead to war. Today .... those safeguards and back-channels are non-existent and/or limited in scope and operation ... and all sides .... China, Russia, the U.S., NATO, etc. .... they are now all posturing themselves with their military to stake positions that should be discussed politically.

Dreams Of A Persian And Russian Empire Alongside The Rise Of An Arab Caliphate

Ralph Peters, New York Post: The Iranian dream of a reborn Persian Empire

WNU Editor: As I grow older I am starting to appreciate how culture drives history, and how history has a tendency to repeat itself. And while I do not expect these past empires to rise to the level that they had attained in the past .... mini versions of these past empires now do exist .... and their leaders are fancying themselves to be the inherent leaders of these great states. As to whether the citizens in these "empires" want to do the necessary sacrifices to become "empires" .... on that I have some doubts.

Report: Global Unrest Has Increased By 20% In The Past Quarter

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

These Are The Countries That Have Destabilized The Most Over The Past 3 Months -- Jeremy Bender, Business Insider

Leading global risk analytics firm Maplecroft has released its latest quarterly Civil Unrest Index. The index tracked changes in social or political unrest that could disrupt business operations across 197 countries.

Maplecroft found that globally, civil unrest has risen in 20% of countries worldwide from the third to fourth quarter of this year. This rising unrest has taken the form of mass demonstrations, ethnic or religious violence, and increasing labor protest.

Predictably, Maplecroft determined that Hong Kong has been especially hard hit. Due to its massive democracy protests this month, the Chinese-administered region fell 62 places on the firm's stability ranking. It is now the 70th most unstable country in the world and is placed at "high risk."

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My Comment: An interesting analysis on global risk. Maplecroft's website is here.

Kissinger Defines His View Of What Is Necessary For A New World Order

The Assembly Of A New World Order -- Henry Kissinger, Wall Street Journal

The concept that has underpinned the modern geopolitical era is in crisis

Libya is in civil war, fundamentalist armies are building a self-declared caliphate across Syria and Iraq and Afghanistan's young democracy is on the verge of paralysis. To these troubles are added a resurgence of tensions with Russia and a relationship with China divided between pledges of cooperation and public recrimination. The concept of order that has underpinned the modern era is in crisis.

The search for world order has long been defined almost exclusively by the concepts of Western societies. In the decades following World War II, the U.S.—strengthened in its economy and national confidence—began to take up the torch of international leadership and added a new dimension. A nation founded explicitly on an idea of free and representative governance, the U.S. identified its own rise with the spread of liberty and democracy and credited these forces with an ability to achieve just and lasting peace. The traditional European approach to order had viewed peoples and states as inherently competitive; to constrain the effects of their clashing ambitions, it relied on a balance of power and a concert of enlightened statesmen.

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My Comment: I always shudder when he makes a public statement .... but people in power are always listening to him.

The World's "Most Powerful" Nation Is China

And The World's "Most Powerful" Nation Is... -- Zero Hedge

In terms of economic might, BBVA has created an index of "world market power" enabling an at-a-glance view of a nation's impact on the global economy via relevance of exports, exposure to external shocks, technological content, and retained value-added. And the winner is... Hint, not USA...

As BBVA sums up,

China shows the highest value not only among emerging economies but also when considering all the sample, inverting with the US the rank order given by the exports’ share in nominal terms.

China holds the largest share among emerging markets in the sample for 9 out of 18 industries, including all manufacturing groups except food (surpassed by Brazil). The largest industry share corresponds to textiles and leather (above 30%).

Russia and especially Saudi Arabia are well ahead in the ranking due to their key role in the oil market for which they show a high degree of product concentration.

India and Mexico have a similar share of world exports, although the market power index is significantly higher for the former on dominant positions in ‘other manufactures’ and business services.

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My Comment: China is not the world's "most powerful" nation. But here is the kicker .... the Chinese that I know firmly believe that within 10 to 20 years they will be the world's "most powerful" nation by every metric with the exception of the military .... and in that case .... they are giving themselves another 10 to 20 years.

Mankind's Fascination With Footages Of Real-Life Deaths Is Now Becoming A Disturbing Trend Online

On the Cordoba front during the Spanish Civil War, a Loyalist fighter is killed in action in September 1936. Robert Capa—Magnum

End Game: Footage Of Real-Life Deaths Has Become A Disturbing New Online Commodity -- The Independent

Thirty years ago, television editors would have been responsible for death censorship. But, with the spread of video recording technology and the rise of user-generated video sites, the power now lies with the little man

One sunny November afternoon last year, in a suburb of Los Angeles popular with street racers, a CCTV camera picked up footage of an eruption of smoke 100m down the road, first thin and white, then thick and black.

Moments later, a car pulled over by its source. A man got out, holding a camera. The film he took – shaking and swearing as it goes – records one minute and six seconds of the aftermath of a nauseating car crash. There was no way for the filmmaker to know that inside the crumpled, flaming chassis was the actor Paul Walker, star of the Fast & Furious film series. The clip ends as the man runs to a safe distance down the pavement.

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My Comment: Robert Capa's "Fallen Soldier" published buy LIFE Magazine in 1936 is probably the first ever picture of someone being killed .... and it created an enormous stir then. Flash forward to today .... advancements in technology have made it all to easy to now capture moments of death from many of the world's war zones today. As for this blog .... I have a policy of not showing such videos .... for I have seen more than enough in the past few years.

A 150 Year Report Card For Humanity

Copenhagen Consensus

A Report Card for Humanity: 1900-2050 -- Bjørn Lomborg, The Atlantic

21 economists crunch the numbers on 10 of the world's most bedeviling problems.

Will we be living better in 2050 than our predecessors did in 1900? The discussion over the state of the world, and whether things are getting better or worse, is not new. Scientists and philosophers have debated the topic for centuries. From Malthus to The Limits to Growth, pessimists have built their case for a future blighted by overpopulation, starvation, and depleted resources as optimists have tried to assure them that everything would be OK. The pessimistic view has proven influential, setting the tone of environmental and policy debates.

But rather than cherry-picking anecdotes to fit an overarching narrative, we should find a new way to compare global problems. Together with 21 of the world’s top economists, I have tried to do just that, developing a scorecard spanning 150 years. Our idea was to measure the damage inflicted by 10 important problems—including health, education, air pollution, and climate change—on a comparable scale, without reinforcing one viewpoint or the other.

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My Comment: A revealing graphical analysis on 10 of the world's problems .... check it out.

Seven Countries To Watch In 2014

World In Turmoil: Seven Countries To Watch In 2014 -- NBC

The world will face countless challenges in 2014, but a few nations in flux stand out in the crowd. NBC News correspondents and writers explain how the outcome of wars, negotiations and elections in these countries could have a deep impact on their own populations and regions, and sometimes the world.

AFGHANISTAN

With the Taliban resurgent as most American and other foreign troops get ready to leave in 2014, desperately poor Afghanistan is a country riddled with fear and uncertainty.

"The mood is not good," said Wadeer Safi, who has been a professor of political science at Kabul University for 25 years. "Without Western support there will be chaos ... there is even potential for civil war."

Many believe that key to the country’s future is a U.S.-Afghan security agreement that would allow some American troops to remain in the country beyond 2014 and open the door to billions of dollars in foreign aid.

President Hamid Karzai has not signed the pact despite the unanimous endorsement of it at a recent meeting of tribal elders and other dignitaries.

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My Comment: I would also add to this list Iraq, Iran, North Korea, South Sudan, Nigeria, DR Congo, and .... the most important country on my list .... the U.S..

Is The Whole World Getting Richer?

New York Midtown Skyline at night. DAVID ILIFF, Wikipedia

The Whole World Is Getting Richer, and That's Good News -- Charles Kenny, Bloomberg Businessweek

This month the most accurate source for global data on the size of the world’s economies got a makeover. As a result, we have measures of economic growth and relative income across countries that are better than ever. These numbers suggest something surprising: a world of ubiquitously increasing wealth, where predictions of Malthusian traps and permanent poverty look increasingly archaic.

The Penn World Tables, created by Alan Heston, Robert Summers, and Bettina Aten at the University of Pennsylvania, were the first serious attempt to properly measure relative economic size around the planet. The researchers tracked the value of goods a country consumed, invested in, and traded using numbers that could be compared around the world and over decades.

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My Comment: It is not who we were .... or what we are today that matters .... but what we will be tomorrow that counts. And on that understanding I will have to say that the world is not only getting richer, but it is opening doors that we can only imagine.

The Rise Of Nationalism

The Return Of Toxic Nationalism -- Fred Kaplan, Wall Street Journal

The spread of universal values is being rolled back on many fronts, from Russia to the Middle East.

Western elites believe that universal values are trumping the forces of reaction. They wax eloquent about the triumph of human rights, women's liberation, social media, financial markets, international and regional organizations and all the other forces that are breaking down boundaries separating humanity.

Tragically, they are really observing a self-referential world of global cosmopolitans like themselves. In country after country, the Westerners identify like-minded, educated elites and mistake them for the population at large. They prefer not to see the regressive and exclusivist forces—such as nationalism and sectarianism—that are mightily reshaping the future.

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My Comment: I completely concur with this analysis because I saw this first hand when I visited China in September. My Chinese hosts .... people that I have known for over 25 years .... were adopting positions and altitudes that can only be described as radical Chinese nationalism. As far as they were concerned .... China's demands on what it believed were it's maritime borders were valid, and that China should be prepared to go to war if necessary. When I talked about the consequences of such actions .... they were the least bothered by it .... going to war was not a worry for them?!?!?!. When I stopped over in Japan I saw the same altitudes forming (albeit at least a year behind) of Japanese nationalism and the now acceptable belief that the Japanese will need to boost their military forces .... a completely forbidden topic only a decade ago.

I am not familiar with the pan-Arab nationalism that is occurring in the Middle East .... but the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood have clearly touched a nerve in a large segment of the population and are using this base to propel themselves to power. Europe has not escaped this trend either .... I see the growth and use of nationalism by political parties in Russia, Greece, Ukraine, and Hungary .... and I expect this trend to sweep through the other European countries.

Throughout history nationalism has been a tool that was used to "whip up" public sentiment for war .... and all that it ever brought was even more war and suffering. Are we repeating history? I hope not .... but the trends are clearly there.

Was 2012 The Greatest Year In The History Of The World?

Why 2012 Was The Best Year Ever -- The Spectator

Never in the history of the world has there been less hunger, less disease and more prosperity.

It may not feel like it, but 2012 has been the greatest year in the history of the world. That sounds like an extravagant claim, but it is borne out by evidence. Never has there been less hunger, less disease or more prosperity. The West remains in the economic doldrums, but most developing countries are charging ahead, and people are being lifted out of poverty at the fastest rate ever recorded. The death toll inflicted by war and natural disasters is also mercifully low. We are living in a golden age.

To listen to politicians is to be given the opposite impression — of a dangerous, cruel world where things are bad and getting worse. This, in a way, is the politicians’ job: to highlight problems and to try their best to offer solutions. But the great advances of mankind come about not from statesmen, but from ordinary people. Governments across the world appear stuck in what Michael Lind, on page 30, describes as an era of ‘turboparalysis’ — all motion, no progress. But outside government, progress has been nothing short of spectacular.

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My Comment: An optimistic view of the world .... so why am I not impressed?