2018 Was The First Year Since 2007 Without A Coup

People demonstrate in front of the Republic Monument at the Taksim Square in Istanbul, Turkey, July 16, 2016. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Clayton Besaw and Matthew Frank, Business Insider/The Conversation: 2018 was the first year since 2007 without a coup. Here's what that means for 2019.

* The past year may have felt politically tumultuous, but in some ways it was unusually stable.
* 2018 is on track to be only the second year in a century without a coup d'état.
* The last head of state overthrown was Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe in November 2017.
* But next year, estimates show there is an 81% chance of at least one coup attempt somewhere in the world.

The past year may have felt politically tumultuous, between Saudi Arabia's brazen killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, the resurgence of authoritarianism in Eastern Europe, and Donald Trump's unorthodox approach to US foreign policy.

But in some ways 2018 was unusually stable. It is on track to be only the second year in a century without a coup d'état. The last head of state overthrown was Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe in November 2017.

There have been 463 coup attempts worldwide since 1950, 233 of which were successful. These undemocratic power transfers have sparked civil wars, triggered authoritarian crackdowns, and stunted economic growth.

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WNU Editor: Here is a sobering number .... There have been 463 coup attempts worldwide since 1950, 233 of which were successful.

In Past Coups It Was The TV And Radio Broadcasters That Were Targeted. Now It Is The Internet.

Once it was the national radio or a TV broadcaster, now it's the internet that would-be coups and strongmen make sure they control in times of crisis. https://t.co/XNXiuCJEQr

— Paul Mozur (@paulmozur) January 7, 2019

WNU Editor: It is the internet where most people get their information now. But to shut it down completely, you will need to essentially cut down the communications grid for an entire nation. Not an easy thing to do.

One Simple Chart Explains How To Execute A Coup

Joseph Coterrill, Edward Luttwak

How To Execute A Coup, In One Chart -- Business Insider

Given the events in Egypt today, we thank FT's Joseph Cotterill for posting this chart on how to execute a coup.

It comes from the famous Edward Luttwak book Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook, which was written in 1968.

The chart shows the three teams that you need in place, and the targets they need to penetrate (residence, TV stations, etc.). This then concludes in domination of key traffic locations.

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My Comment: Simple and strait-forward .... now we need a chart on what to do after the coup.

The Return Of The Coup

From Foreign Policy Blog:

The Wall Street Journal's Mary O'Grady argues that the ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was not in fact a coup, since the president was himself holding a referendum in violation of an order by the country's supreme court. But I don't think one need defend Zelaya to argue that sending troops to break into a president's house and put him on a plane out of the country is generally not the best way to protect "the independence of institutions that keep presidents from becoming dictators."

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My Comment: The trend is no longer to send the soldiers in the early morning hours to boot out a leader, the trend is to use the levers of power of the state to squeeze and/or suppress your opponents, to use the media to promote your message (denying everyone else the same privilege), and to insure that come election time, every advantage is put in place to favor your candidacy, and every disadvantage is put in place for your opponent.

Countries that fit this bill in Latin America are .... hmmmm .... Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Nicaragua. Hell .... even Brazilian President Lulu is thinking of running for a third term, a clear violation of the Brazilian constitution.

From where I stand, coups against constitutions and the rule of law are happening in Latin America almost everyday now.