Are We On The Verge Of Predicting The Future?

Andrew C. Jarocki, Fifth Domain: Can a software program predict the future?

Will a crop failure in a country cause such a level of instability to be considered a national security threat? Are certain troop deployments better for deterrence, or will they cause an unintended war?

The multitude of “what would happen if” questions keeps military planners up at night, and proves to be difficult to simulate. Now, BAE Systems may have the answer.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has sponsored a $4.2 million Phase 1 contract to develop software that will “aid military planners in understanding and addressing the complex dynamics that drive conflicts,” according to a statement by the contractor.

The mostly manual methods currently used to predict and prepare for every contingency “have failed” planners in several ways, according to Jonathan Goldstein, senior principal scientist of the autonomy, controls and estimations unit at BAE Systems.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: LOL. This is like trying to find the "Holy Grail". Good luck on that.

Is This How Soldiers In The Future Will Be Transported?

Discover: One Small Step for Flying Cars

A drone’s flying test may help pave the way for flying cars. In early December, U.S. regulators gave their approval for unmanned hover tests of a miniature flying car model made by the company Terrafugia. Such testing would provide feedback for eventually building a full-size version of a flying car capable of hovering for vertical takeoff and landing.

Contrary to some more breathless news headlines, this does not mean the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has cleared a hover-capable flying car for flight tests in U.S. airspace. Instead, Terrafugia only received special permission to operate a “one-tenth scale TF-X vehicle” under the classification of a small Unmanned Aircraft System weighing less than 55 pounds. The small-scale model of the TF-X prototype—basically a small drone—will have to operate at altitudes below 400 feet and at speeds under 100 miles per hour. Still, it’s a crucial step on the road to creating a flying car with the likeness of the futuristic vehicles seen in science fiction films such as “Back to the Future,” “Blade Runner” or the “Star Wars” prequels.

WNU Editor: I could not resist Jay.

A Timeline On When The World's Resources Run Out

(Click on The Image to Enlarge)

When Will It All Run Out? -- Zero Hedge

Nothing lasts forever (except central bank dovishness) in the real world. Here is an interpretation of when the world will run out of each metal or energy source...

As Visual Capitalist notes,

There is a limited supply of these commodities – and if there are no discoveries, no price changes, and no changes in consumption, we are running out relatively soon. In my opinion, there are two caveats that are always worth considering when looking at something like this.

1. “Reserves” are an engineering number that are based on economic viability. Technically speaking, there are small concentrations of gold everywhere. It is just not usually viable to mine 0.1 g/t gold. When we will “run out” of each mineral in this chart is based on current reserves and prices. If the gold price doubles, then suddenly it is economic to mine more.

2. This chart is a reminder that something has to give. Either prices are going to have to go up, or new amazing discoveries have to be made to keep prices down. It’s basic economics, and either way it seems that there are many opportunities in the mining industry for investors and speculators on both fronts.

Read more ....

U.S. Military Looks At The Future

Was stealth a game-changer? Here maintainers and crew chiefs prepare B-2 stealth bombers for Operation Odyssey Dawn on March 19, 2011. Senior Airman Kenny Holston / U.S. Air Force

US Military Brainstorms Future Game-Changers -- MSNBC

Have expensive stealth bombers and cheap roadside bombs changed the face of modern warfare? The question of what technologies count as "game-changers" dominated the first of several U.S. military workshops meant to identify the most disruptive science and technology.

Much of the NeXTech workshop in Washington, D.C., looked at tomorrow's science and technology that could change warfare in 2025 — robots, 3D printing, energy, human enhancement and smarter software. But the gathered scientists, industry leaders and military officers also disagreed about how to define a technology's impact as "game-changing," even as they tried to keep focused on the future.

Read more ....

My Comment: A summary on what many are predicting will be future game-changers for the US military.

Spychips For Soldiers

U.S. Military Developing Spychips For Soldiers -- WND

Government wants 'health' benefits from nanosensors.

The U.S. military wants to plant nanosensors in soldiers to monitor health on future battlefields and immediately respond to needs, but a privacy expert warns the step is just one more down the road to computer chips for all.

“It’s never going to happen that the government at gunpoint says, ‘You’re going to have a tracking chip,’” said Katherine Albrecht, who with Liz McIntyre authored “Spychips,” a book that warns of the threat to privacy posed by Radio Frequency Identification.

Read more ....

My Comment: It is easy to foresee that one day these chips will be in all of us.

Report: The U.S. Military Should Focus Growth On The Navy And Air Force

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta addresses U.S. and international troops on Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy, Oct. 7, 2011. Panetta thanked the troops for their service. DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jacob N. Bailey

Report: US Should Place Its Bets On Navy, Air Force -- DoD Buzz

And now, music to the ears of the light and navy blue services: The U.S. should take a strategic risk and put its chips on naval and air power in the 21st century, according to a new report by a top D.C. think-tank. It should make the the assumption that the Western Pacific and the Middle East, in that order, will be the two key regions of the future, which means ships and aircraft should get an edge over ground forces, the authors say.

Read more ....

My Comment: To focus our resources on the Navy and Air Force implies a certain threat in the future. But who and what that threat will be is not defined in this report.

How The US Military Is Adapting To Fighting Prolonged Wars

DRONES ON DECK - A BQM-74E drone launches from the USS Lassen during a missile exercise in the Pacific Ocean, Sept. 21, 2010. The Lassen is assigned to Destroyer Squadron 15. U.S. Navy photo by Petty officer 1st Class Carl T. Jacobson

Ever-Changing Army Fights The Longest-Ever War -- HDS Greenway, GlobalPost

Senior military officials talk about how US troops are fundamentally different than 10 years ago.

BOSTON — In an unusually high-level telephone conference briefing last night, senior military officers discussed with selected listeners the changing role of the armed services in this, the ninth year of warfare — not only our longest war, but the longest ever fought by a volunteer army, having now passed the war of the American Revolution.

Under strict ground rules, I am not allowed to say who the officers were, but here is what they had to say.

Read more ....

My Comment: Forget about the impact that America's wars are having on its military .... the upcoming budget wars and curtailing a massive defit cit will impact the shape and future of the US military more than what in happening in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Combat Uniform Of The Future: Virus-Built Wearable Batteries

U.S. and Afghan army soldiers conduct a dismounted patrol near Combat Outpost Mizan in Mizan district, Zabul province, Afghanistan, Aug 19, 2010. The U.S. soldiers are assigned to Company F, 2nd Squadron, 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment. The soldiers and members of the provincial reconstruction team met with residents to discuss upcoming provincial elections. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Nathanael Callon

Virus-Built Wearable Batteries Could Power Military -- Discovery News

Viruses have plagued humanity for millennia, but now they've been tapped to build batteries that can be sprayed onto uniforms.

* Viruses are harnessed to produce parts for lithium-ion batteries.
* One virus made the anode, another, the cathode.
* Battery parts could be eventually grown in tobacco plants or sprayed onto clothing.

Batteries, built by viruses, could someday be sprayed onto military uniforms as wearable batteries.

Teams of researchers, one from MIT, one from the University of Maryland, have used two different viruses to create the cathode and anode for a lithium ion battery.

Read more ....

My Comment: Wow .... what will they think of next.

The Future Of The U.S. Armed Forces (A Collection Of Articles From The American Interest

WNU Editor: A collection of articles from The American Interest. Their lineup is the following:

Presidents and Their Generals: A Conversation with Eliot Cohen -- Eliot Cohen
When President Obama fired General Stanley McChrystal and sent General David Petraeus to Kabul in his stead, he wrote the latest chapter in a long narrative of civil-military tensions in America.

Ebb Tide -- Seth Cropsey
American’s many post-Cold War land wars have obscured important strategic truths, among them the real value of the U.S. Navy.

Caught on a Lee Shore -- Dakota L. Wood
Redefining the strategic niche of the Marine Corps may be the key to a future as glorious as its past.

In the Army Now -- Richard A. Lacquement, Jr.
The Army’s reluctant embrace of counterinsurgency and stability operations is the right choice. Now comes the hard part: to institutionalize it.

Up in the Air -- Richard B. Andres
The Air Force is in a tailspin, and a fundamental strategic myopia is the reason.

Benevolent, Adaptable and Underappreciated -- Jeff Robertson
A technology-enabled temptation to shorten the tether on Coast Guard operations threatens the future of a uniquely resourceful organization.

Unreserved Support -- Paul McHale
A former Congressman makes the case for giving the Active Reserves their due.

Hat Tip: Small Wars Journal

My Comment: There is a lot of good meat in these articles. Read it all.

Meet The Face Of Big Brother (In Australia)

Scary stuff ... everyone's face could be mapped. Source: The Daily Telegraph

From The Telegraph:

THE State Government is quietly compiling a mathematical map of almost every adult's face, sharing information that allows law enforcement to track people by CCTV.

Experts said yesterday few people realised their facial features were being recorded in an RTA database of drivers licence photos that the Government has allowed both state and federal police to access.

The federal body CrimTrac has asked NSW for its database so it can be mined nationally by police using the facial recognition information contained in it.

Read more ....

My Comment: I can easily envision this technology being used in a conflict zone in which through positioning of cameras everyone can be tracked .... and I mean everyone .... insurgents, friendly, civilians, etc..

James Cameron And Military Trends In Technology

Paging James Cameron: Pentagon Wants 3-D Surveillance -- The Danger Room

Think Avatar, for military spies. Pentagon far-out research arm Darpa wants to turn surveillance into a 3D experience for troops. They’ve launched the Fine Detail Optical Surveillance (FDOS) Program, and are requesting proposals for prototypes of optical imaging systems that would use “advanced high-resolution 3D imaging technology.” Darpa wants two kinds of surveillance systems: portable units for active battle, and drone-ready systems for unmanned planes.

Read more ....

My Comment: James Cameron has an interesting history with his movies and predicting future trends in military technology.

The first UAv that I ever saw were his versions in the Terminator movies. Avator is providing the same tech .... but more advanced and better looking.

What’s Ahead For U.S. Soldiers In 2010

Soldiers assigned to Pale Horse Blue Platoon, 2nd Battalion, 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment, perform weapons clearing operations in the fine sand sediment after returning to FOB Warhorse, Iraq following a mission in 2008. MC1 Mario A. Quiroga / Navy

From Army Times:

The surge in Afghanistan, evolving missions and tighter budgets will shape the year ahead for the Army. For soldiers, 2010 may mean tougher chances at promotion, a new camouflage pattern for uniforms and better gear and training.

Here is the final installment of our three-part series about things to watch out for in 2010.

Read more ....

Previous:

What’s ahead for soldiers in 2010, Part I

What’s ahead for soldiers in 2010, Part II

Pentagon Eyes Spaceplane For Speedy Recon

Space Ship Two

From War Is Boring:

Twenty years after the U.S. Air Force first retired its SR-71 spy plane, and 11 years after a handful of the Mach-3 jets was briefly returned to military service, the military has finally identified a candidate to replace the famed Blackbird. The Pentagon’s secretive National Security Space Office is navigating a minefield of budgetary perils, bureaucratic expectations and industry inhibitions, to turn a experimental, civilian “space plane” into a high-speed, responsive reconnaissance craft.

Read more ....

My Comment: One would think that satellites can do everything .... obviously not.

World Grain Demand Could Surge With Failed China Crop

From Future Pundit:

A small percentage change in China's agricultural output would cause a large increase in China's demand for grain crops.

Global grain markets are facing breaking point according to new research by the University of Leeds into the agricultural stability of China.

Experts predict that if China's recent urbanisation trends continue, and the country imports just 5% more of its grain, the entire world's grain export would be swallowed whole.

Read more ....

My Comment: One can also say the same thing with India when it starts its industrial/technological revolution.

World Population Growth Challenges Farms: Group

A farmer ploughs farmland on the outskirts of Xiangfan, Hubei province
October 8, 2008. (Stringer/Reuters)

From Yahoo News/Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The burgeoning world population, estimated to reach 9 billion by 2040, will increase demand for food and energy from farmers and challenge them to balance the demands, said a think tank on Thursday.

The nonpartisan Farm Foundation, based in Oak Brook, Illinois, said in a report that U.S. agriculture will play a critical role in determining if global feed and fuel needs are met.

"A growing world population means increasing demand for both food and energy. As a source of both, agriculture will be challenged to balances and meet competing demands," said the report, titled "The 30-year challenge: Agriculture's strategic role in feeding and fueling a growing world."

Read more ....

My Comment: These trends do not favor peace and stability for the future.

National Intelligence Council -- A Report On The Future

New U.S. Intelligence Report: A Gloomy Future -- Military Watch

The United States will retain its military power through 2025 but might be challenged by new hostile nuclear powers and by cyber and sabotage attacks, counterspace strikes and other asymmetric attacks, according to a new report to be released later today by the Director of National Intelligence.

(Update: It's out and available here )

Global Trends 2025, produced by the DNI's National Intelligence Council, projects the fast rise of India and China, growing conflicts over scarce resources and the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups.

Read more ....

More News On The DNI's National Intelligence Council Report

Nuclear Arms, Scarce Resources as Seeds of Global Instability -- Washington Post
NIC Expects Al Qaeda’s Appeal to Falter -- New York Times
NIC: Sun Setting on the American Century -- The Times
NIC Says US Influence will 'Substantially' Decline -- Daily Telegraph
US Power, Influence will Decline in Future, Report Says -- CNN News
US Influence Will Fade By 2025 -- CBS News
US Global Dominance 'Set to Wane' -- BBC News
The Year 2025: Oil, Dollar Out; Russia, Islam In -- Associated Press
US Clout Down, Risks Up by 2025 -- Reuters
Nuclear War Threat to Grow by 2025 -- The Australian
Europe: a Hobbled Giant -- Financial Times