Global Rice Shortage Looming

 

CNBC: Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years 

* Rice production for 2023 is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades, according to Fitch Solutions. 

* “At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,” Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart told CNBC. 

* There’s a strained supply of rice as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as weather woes in rice-producing economies like China and Pakistan. 

From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific – which consumes 90% of the world’s rice. 

The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions. And a deficit of this magnitude for one of the world’s most cultivated grains will hurt major importers, analysts told CNBC.  

Read more ....  

Update: World facing largest rice shortage in 20 years: Whats causing it, how badly will India be affected? (First Post)  

WNU Editor: I was talking to a friend who lives in China this morning, and he gave me the heads-up on this story when he mentioned to me that he has been shocked by how much rice has increased in price in the past few months. My friend is well-off, so he can afford any price increases. But for those who cannot, and the fact that these shortages are going to last into 2024, for many in Asia hard times are coming.

It Looks Like The Global Food Crisis Is Reigniting

OilPrie.com: Soaring Food Prices Prompt Eurasian Nations To Ban Food Exports 

The harshest winter since 2008 is contributing to shortages of staple vegetables across Central Asia and sending prices north in a region still suffering from COVID-induced food inflation. 

In Uzbekistan, record frosts have highlighted the shortcomings of the national energy system as even residents of the capital spent days on end without power. But the cold has also hammered the agriculture sector in the region’s most populous country. 

On January 20, the Uzbek agriculture minister announced a four-month ban on exports of onions after prices doubled in three weeks. The title of the ministry’s press release – “there are reserves of onions in Uzbekistan” – hints at panic. 

 Once among the cheapest onions produced by former Soviet countries, Uzbek onions are now as expensive as onions from countries like Georgia and Moldova, the ministry said, reaching 6,000-8,000 sum (53-71 cents) per kilo.  

Read more ....  

Update #1: Thai Rice Prices Jump As Global Food Crisis Reignites (Zero Hedge)  

Update #2: ‘A perfect storm for the whole food system right now’: One of the world’s largest fertilizer companies warns that every country—even those in Europe—is facing a food crisis (Fortune)  

WNU Editor: Of course this is all Russia's fault .... Russia to blame for ‘worst food crisis since WW2’, says US envoy (The Guardian).

World Food Prices Hit Record High in 2022

FILE PHOTO: Combines harvest wheat in a field in the Rostov Region 

Reuters: World food prices hit record high in 2022 

PARIS (Reuters) -A surge in the cost of most food commodities last year, as the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine raised concerns of shortages, sent the U.N. food agency's average price index to the highest level on record. 

The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3% from 2021, and the highest since records started in 1990, the agency said on Friday. 

The index had already gained 28% in 2021 from the previous year as the world economy recovered from the impact of the pandemic. 

Food prices surged after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year on fears of disruptions to Black Sea trade. T

hey have pared some of their gains since, in part because of a U.N.-backed grain export channel from Ukraine and the prospect of improved supplies in producing countries.

Read more ....  

Update #1: Global food prices in 2022 hit record high amid drought, war (AP)  

Update #2: World Food Prices Hit Record High in 2022 (AFP)  

WNU Editor: It is expected that food prices will continue to rise in 2023 .... Global economy 2023: why there will still be plenty of pressure on food prices in the year ahead (The Conversation).

World's Largest Grain Producers

World's largest grain producers.#AFPGraphics shows top 10 world producers for corn, rice and wheat as China warns of a severe drought threatening its autumn harvest pic.twitter.com/UuSfCd1sog

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 26, 2022

WNU Editor: I am always surprised on how much China contributes to global food production.

Drought Is Causing Widespread Crop Failures Throughout The US, Europe, And China

 

 Economic Collapse Blog: A Horrifying Drought Is Causing Widespread Crop Failures Throughout The United States And Europe 

We really are reaching a major crisis point. Thanks to soaring fertilizer prices, insane weather patterns and the war in Ukraine, global food supplies have been getting tighter and tighter. So we really needed a banner year for agricultural production in both the United States and Europe in 2022, and that is not going to happen. In fact, unprecedented drought is absolutely devastating crops all over the northern hemisphere. A lot of people are complaining about how high food prices are right now, but just wait. If some sort of a miracle doesn’t happen, agricultural production is going to be way below expectations in both the United States and Europe, and that is going to have very serious implications for 2023.

Let me start by talking about the nightmare that is starting to unfold in Europe.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: If this drought continues, one can only imagine what the price of food will be like in 2023. 

More News On The Current Global Drought Crisis  

More than 60% of land in the European Union and UK is now experiencing drought conditions -- CNN  

Drought threatens 60% of EU and U.K. as Europe faces "critical situation" -- Axios  

More than half of Europe affected by extreme drought -- DW 

Drought isn't just a Western U.S. problem. A severe shortage has hit the Northeast, too -- LA Times  

US issues western water cuts as drought leaves Colorado River near ‘tipping point’ -- The Guardian  

US cuts water allowance for some states, Mexico as drought bites -- AFP  

High temperatures bring drought, power shortages to China's Yangtze River delta -- RFA  

China races to alleviate drought, power cuts amid record heatwave -- Reuters

Satellite Imagery Indicate A Coming Global Harvest Grain Disaster

BBC: Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest 

As harvest time looms for the world's main wheat producers, countries that import wheat are hoping for a bumper global crop so that record high prices might fall. But analysis on the health of crops around the world, shared with the BBC, suggests that's unlikely, and that Russia could be the only big winner. 

From his farm three hours south-east of Paris, Sébastien Neveux is worried. Here in France's main wheat-producing region, the weather has been strange recently. 

It was extremely dry in March, April and May, a crucial time for wheat crops in France which need moisture to pull minerals up from the ground. Then, in June, there was heavy rain and hail. It was too much, too late. 

"I'll have lost 40% of this field because of drought and intense heat," says Mr Neveux. He estimates he'll lose 25% of his wheat crop overall.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: The U.S. and Germany are the world's top food exporters. This drop in their grain harvests should raise alarm bells everywhere.

EU Bracing For A Massive Migration Crisis From The Middle East And Africa Caused By The Global Food Crisis

 

Daily Mail: Europe faces huge surge in migration from Middle East and Africa due to food crisis created by war in Ukraine, EU warns 

* Around 20million tonnes of grain are currently blocked in Ukrainian ports 

* Food prices have rocketed which could fuel a migration wave towards Europe 

* Putin has been accused of deliberately weaponizing food supplies 

Europe is facing a huge migration wave from the Middle East and Africa because of the food crisis aggravated by the war in Ukraine, the EU has warned. 

Ukraine is one of the biggest grain exporters in the world but production and dispatch have been severely affected by Putin's barbaric invasion. 

Around 20million tonnes of grain from last year's harvest are blocked in Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.

Read more .... 

WNU Editor: The EU is fixated on exporting Ukraine grain to alleviate the global food crisis. But many are predicting that Ukraine itself is going to face serious food shortages this winter because of the war. IMHO this is the wrong time for Ukraine to export its food stocks. 

And what makes the EU position on food even more absurd are the anti-farm policies that we are seeing in places like the Netherlands and Poland where farmers are being pressured to cut food production to meet climate change goals. 

The truth is that the global food crisis has been long in the making, and the cost to feed oneself is no longer affordable for hundreds of millions of people around the world. So face with the option of staying put and starving, or going to where there is food, it should then surprise no one that people will be going to where the food is. 

EU Bracing For A Massive Migration Crisis From The Middle East And Africa Caused By The Global Food Crisis  

EU preparing for 'huge challenge' of migration waves sparked by food crisis -- Euronews  

EU Warns of “Waves of Migration” Caused by Global Food Crisis -- Summit News  

EU braces for migrants spurred by food crisis -- RTE

Report: Global Food Crisis Will 'Kill Millions' By Leaving Millions Vulnerable To Disease

A man processes wheat in Odesa, Ukraine  

RTE/AFP: Charity warns global food crisis 'will kill millions' 

The global food crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine will kill millions by leaving the hungriest more vulnerable to infectious diseases, potentially triggering the world's next health catastrophe, the head of a major aid organisation has warned. 

A Russian naval blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports has stopped grain shipments from the world's fourth-largest exporter of wheat and corn, raising the spectre of shortages and hunger in low-income countries. 

The knock-on effects of the food shortages mean many will die not only of starvation but from having weaker defences against infectious diseases due to bad nutrition, Peter Sands, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria said.  

Read more ....  

WNU editor: And this crisis is going to get worse .... UN Secretary General Warns Worsening Food Shortages Could Lead To A Global "Catastrophe (June 24, 2022).

World Food Programme Is Cutting Food Rations For Refugees By As Much As Half

BC-Refugee-Food-Rations-Cut-as-War-in-Ukraine-Worsens-Global-Hunger , Áine Quinn  

Bloomberg: Refugee Food Rations Cut as War in Ukraine Worsens Global Hunger 

(Bloomberg) -- The World Food Programme is cutting food rations for refugees by as much as half, as it faces a hunger crisis worsened by the war in Ukraine and funding constraints. 

“We are being forced to make the heart-breaking decision to cut food rations for refugees who rely on us for their survival,” WFP Executive Director David Beasley said Monday in a statement. 

Food prices are near a record high after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sharply reduced Kyiv’s key exports of grain and vegetable oil, adding to price pressures from logistics snarl-ups and a rebound in demand after the pandemic. 

Efforts to let Ukraine resume crucial agricultural exports are moving slowly.  

Read more ....  

Update #1: UN food agency announces further refugee ration cuts, in quest for #ZeroHunger -- UN News   

Update #2: UN Warns African Refugees Face Food Cuts Due To Insufficient Funds (I24 News)  

WNU Editor: The cuts are already happening .... World Food Program Suspends Food Aid for 1.7 Million People in South Sudan (VOA).

These Are The Countries That Are Most Dependent On Wheat Imports From Russia And Ukraine

WNU Editor: The above chart shows the countries that are most dependent on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. This is why I am not surprised that the UN is now leading intense negotiations with Russia to unblock Ukrainian ports and release tens of millions of tonnes of grain to avert a global food crisis. 

In the above graph I noticed that Turkey gets 90% of its grains from Russia and Ukraine. I guess that explains why Turkey is doing everything in its power to get Russia and Ukraine to cooperate on resuming grain exports .... Turkey struggles to push Russia, Ukraine into grain deal to avert food crisis (Reuters), and why Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is in Turkey .... Russia open to Ukraine grain exports but demands conditions (AP). More here .... Turkey, Russia discuss efforts to restart Ukrainian grain exports (Al Jazeera). 

Unfortunately the talks are not succeeding .... No Progress at Russia-Turkey Talks on Ukraine Grain Exports (Moscow Times/AFP). 

A prediction. 

I expect Turkish President Erdogan is going to try and cultivate better ties with Putin. He sees the EU is in a panic over the Russia - Ukraine war .... Turkish President Erdogan Says There Is Now Panic In Europe Over The Russia - Ukraine War (June 6, 2022), and my gut is telling me that Erdogan has made the decision that Russia is going to win the Ukraine war, or at least get what it wants out of this conflict. 

This situation may also explain Erdogan's objections to Sweden and Finland from joining NATO. He wants to be on the winning side, and he certainly does not want to jeopardize grain shipments from Russia that his country is completely dependent on. What better way to guarantee these shipments by supporting the Kremlin. If not publicly, at least privately and through his actions on an issue that the Kremlin sees is critical to its national security.

Italian Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio Says A 'World War For Bread' Is Currently Underway

Vyacheslav, a tractor driver for AgroRegion, walks near his tractor in a field he is planting with corn on April 25, 2022 near Boryspil, Ukraine.Brendan Hoffman for NBC News  

Republic World: Italy Warns Of 'bread War' In Africa As Russian Blockade Of Ukrainian Ports Continues  

Earlier this month, a report published by the WFP noted that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has forced over 20 million people to suffer food shortages. 

As Ukrainian ports have been blocked for three months in a row, an Italian minister believes a "bread war" has already begun in African nations. Italian Foreign Minister, Luigi Di Maio, said that the situation in several vulnerable countries, especially African nations, which are already facing the worst ever food crisis, has plunged into a further "food emergency".

"The global bread war is already going on and we must stop it. We risk political instability in Africa. For the proliferation of terrorist organisations, for coups: this can lead to the grain crisis that we are experiencing," The Business Tribune quoted Di Maio as saying.  

Read more ....  

Update: ‘World war for bread’ underway – Italy (RT)  

WNU Editor: Here is a breakdown on how important this region is in feeding the world .... Europe's lost 'breadbasket': How Russia's war in Ukraine is stoking a global food crisis (NBC).

Should Ukraine Export Its Wheat And Other Grains When There Are Millions Of Ukrainians Internally Displaced And Facing Hunger?

A farm worker unloads fertiliser from a truck to use on a wheat field near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on April 5. Ukraine's future wheat crops are in doubt due to the ongoing war. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)  

WNU Editor: There are currently 8 million Ukrainians internally displaced .... Ukraine Humanitarian Crisis (Relief Web). Many have lost their homes, and most are dependent on humanitarian aid to survive. 

Is this the time for Ukraine to export the very food that it needs to feed its population? 

I have family, friends, and contacts in Ukraine who are telling me how serious the humanitarian crisis is in Ukraine right now. Having not enough food is one of them, and it is a situation that everyone is telling me is going to get worse.

But the Western narrative is that Ukraine must export its crops to avoid a global food crisis. 

Am I the only one who sees a disconnect here?