Where Do Failed DARPA And Pentagon Web Projects Go?

The Pentagon's Failed "Terrorism Futures Market" Is Now a Ukranian Bookstore -- Motherboard

In 2003, scandal erupted when two US senators went public with word that the Pentagon was planning to launch a public marketplace that would encourage investors to bet, anonymously, on the likelihood of acts of terror occurring in the Middle East. A brainchild of DARPA, the effort was called Future Markets Applied to Prediction, or FutureMAP. It was quickly dubbed the "terrorism futures market."

The betting was to be done on a sophisticated website: PolicyAnalysisMarket.org. Users would peruse the detailed geopolitical information there—loads of data, graphs, and maps of the region—and enter bets on, say, if and when the King of Jordan would be assassinated and the monarchy overthrown. The Pentagon's rationale, it insisted, was to create a kind of Intrade for the intelligence community; something that would harness market forces to predict—and, ostensibly, to prevent—terrorist acts and other calamities.

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My Comment: This DARPA/Pentagon project was ahead of it's time because it is actually a very smart concept .... and one that can probably play a role in today's social media universe.

The Doom And Gloom Economic Pundits Are Predicting War Between Iran And Israel

Dr. Doom’ Sees Iran-Israel Clash, Says Buy Precious Metals -- CNBC

Political risk in the Middle East has increased significantly with war between Iran and Israel almost inevitable, and precious metals and equities investments offer some safety, Swiss money manager and long-term bear Marc Faber said on Tuesday.

"Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now. I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran—it's almost inevitable," Faber, who publishes the widely read Gloom Boom and Doom Report, told Reuters on the sidelines of an investment conference.

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My Comment: I always worry about these pundits .... they always put their money where their mouth is .... and they are usually right. But while I do not share their conviction that there will be an Israeli strike on Iran, they will probably still make money because of this monster crisis which has the capacity of becoming a real disaster that will impact everyone.

Violence Follows Common Patterns

Photo: Armed conflicts show striking statistical similarities.

From The BBC:

Researchers have uncovered common patterns in the scale and timings of attacks across a variety of different violent conflicts.

A total of 54,679 violent events spanning several decades were analysed.

The team searched for statistical similarities across nine historic and ongoing insurgencies including those of Iraq, Afghanistan and Northern Ireland.

The results, published in Nature journal, may offer the hope of reducing casualties in future conflicts.

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My Comment: I have always found this type of research fascinating. I do not share the belief that mankind is THAT predictable, but it is true that we have an annoying habit of repeating history, with conflicts and wars being on the top of that list.

Scientists Find 'Law Of War' That Predicts Attacks

Frequency and intensity of Western Wars (1600 - 1945). The 1618-1648 interval marks the Thirty Years' War, the 1789-1815 interval marks the Wars of the French revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, and the 1914-1945 interval marks the World War I and II.

From The Telegraph:

Scientists believe they may have glimpsed a "law of war" that can be used to predict the likelihood of attacks in modern conflicts, from conventional battles to global terrorism.

The European Consortium For Mathematics in Industry was told today that an international team has developed a physics-based theory describing the dynamics of insurgent group formation and attacks, which neatly explains the universal patterns observed in all modern wars and terrorism.

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My Comment: The first thing that went through my mind was that this new field of study has the potential to significantly affect military procurements, budgets, strategic policies and analysis, promotions, political decisions. etc. .... the list is endless. Investment houses and big money institutions pay big bucks in using math to understand economic trends and developments .... why not on wars and conflicts.

I have been reading and studying history and the history of wars for the past 35 years. I find that as I grow older, my prediction on trends when they pertain to wars and conflicts is now almost 100%. It is not because I am smart .... it is that I now find history is always repeating itself when it comes to politics, economics, and conflicts/wars. I will not be surprise if mathematical models will prove me right.

Plus ca change .... plus c'est le meme chose. The more things change .... the more that they stay the same.