Russia Expects An Attack Against Iran This Summer

Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack -- Business Insider

WASHINGTON – The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.

Russian Security Council head Viktor Ozerov said that Russian General Military Headquarters has prepared an action plan in the event of an attack on Iran.

Dmitry Rogozin, who recently was the Russian ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, warned against an attack on Iran.

Read more ....

My Comment: Russia is convinced that Israel will be conducting a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities this year .... hence they are preparing for all contingencies .... including invading Georgia. Will they invade Georgia if there is an attack on Iran .... that is an answer that I do not know.

50 More Years Of Russia - Georgian Disagreement

Russian Military To Stay In Abkhazia, South Ossetia, 49 More Years -- Eurasianet.org

Russia's Duma has passed, and President Dmitry Medvedev has ratified, an agreement allowing the Russian military to maintain bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia for 49 years, with automatic 15-year extensions after that.

The agreements refer to the 7th Military Base in Abkhazia, and the 4th in South Ossetia, which have evolved from the peacekeeping bases that Russia maintained before the 2008 war with Georgia. (For a details about the bases, a thorough, if slightly old, accounting was published in Russia in Global Affairs.) The bases host a total of about 7,000 troops, split evenly between the two breakaway territories.

Read more ....

My Comment: I am sure Georgia has a different opinion on this deployment.

Russian Spy Ring Broken In Georgia

Georgia Nabs Russian 'Spy Ring,' Angering Moscow -- Christian Science Monitor

Georgia on Friday accused 13 people, including four Russians, of spying for Russia after a four-year investigation.

Georgia on Friday accused 13 people, including four Russian citizens, of passing information to Russia's GRU military spy agency during the brief August 2008 war between the two countries.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin immediately denounced the Georgian claims as "a political farce." The charges, rumors about which first started circulating a week ago, have struck many as bizarre. But most analysts see at least some truth in the charges, though they caution that the broader domestic and regional dynamics involved must be factored in.

Read more ....

More News On Georgia Accusing Russia Of Spying

Georgia arrests 13 accused of spying for Russia -- Yahoo News/AP
Georgia says breaks up Russian spy network -- Yahoo News/Reuters
Georgia busts Russian spy ring, outrages Moscow -- Yahoo News/AFP
Georgia and Russia collide over 'spy ring' -- The Guardian
Russia accuses Georgia of provocation over arrest of 'spies' -- The Telegraph
Georgia Says It Broke Up Russian Spy Ring -- New York Times
Georgia arrests 15 alleged spies -- CNN
9 Georgian, 4 Russian Citizens Among Arrested ‘Spies’ -- Civil.ge
Georgia Breaks Up Russian Spy Ring That Started Operating Before 2008 War -- Bloomberg
Russian Foreign Ministry says Georgian claims about Russian spies are bogus -- RIA Novosti
Georgia arrest of spy suspects "provocation": Russia -- Reuters
Russians arrested in Georgia over accusations in spying have no connection with Russian security services - source -- RIA Novosti
Detaining alleged Russian spies in Tbilisi is a provocation” – Russia -- RT News

Russian Invasion of Georgia Branded A Hoax, Many Not Amused

Georgian TV Channel Apologetic Over Bogus Report Of Russian Invasion -- RIA Novosti

The Georgian broadcaster at the center of the latest furor over a fake TV news report said on Monday it was sorry it might have inconvenienced some people and would honor the code of journalistic ethics.

The Imedi TV channel sparked panic in Georgia on Saturday with a broadcast that said Russian tanks had invaded the capital and the country's president was dead.

Read more ....

More News On The Russian Invasion Of Georgia Hoax

Panic in Georgia After a Mock News Broadcast -- New York Times
Fake Russian invasion broadcast sparks Georgian panic -- CNN
Georgia Panics After Fake Report About Russian Invasion -- Voice of America
Russia invasion spoof report spreads panic in Georgia -- The Telegraph
Panic Follows Fake Russian Invasion on Georgian TV -- ABC News
Georgian TV channel apologizes for fake invasion report -- RIA Novosti
Russian invasion hoax has Georgia opposition in uproar -- Christian Science Monitor
Panic and fury over fake television report on Russian invasion of Georgia -- The Telegraph
Georgian opposition denounces phony TV war report -- AP
Russia condemns Georgian TV's 'immoral' invasion hoax -- BBC
West condemns Georgia war spoof, divisions exposed -- Reuters

My Comment: In the early 1970s the air raid sirens accidentally went on broadcasting a Soviet nuclear attack on North America. Even though it happened over 35 years ago, the fear and panic that gripped me is something that I will never forget.

The stunt that this Georgian TV station did is even more reprehensible .... and one thing that I can guarantee you is that some people are not going to forget about it 35 years from now.

Russia and Georgia Go to War Again — On Screen

The film War 08.08.08: The Art of Betrayal is made from
40 hours of video-footage from South Ossetia

From Time Magazine:

More than a year after Russia and Georgia clashed in a short but brutal war, the two countries are continuing their dispute on the movie screen. Russian filmmakers have already released a slick documentary as well as a romantic feature that depicts Georgia as a genocidal aggressor. Now, the Georgian government is supporting Renny Harlin, the Hollywood director who made Die Hard 2, for its own take on the conflict, complete with Andy Garcia as the embattled Georgian President standing up to Russian tanks.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is not going to help the situation .... but if they just limit their shooting at each other via through film .... all that I can say is that it is better than the alternative.

Russia Spy Chief Warns Of New Georgia War

Russian troops crossing the Russian-Georgian border. (Photo from Russiablog)

From Swiss Info:

OSCOW (Reuters) - Russian military intelligence believes Georgia might again attack South Ossetia, the pro-Moscow region over which the two countries fought a war last year, a powerful spy chief said Thursday.

Alexander Shlyakhturov, who in April took over command of the military's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), said the situation was strained and accused NATO countries of continuing to supply arms to Georgia.

"The situation with Georgia remains tense because the current Georgian authorities do not just refuse to recognise the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but are trying in every way to return these countries...to their jurisdiction," he said in a rare interview with state news agency ITAR-TASS

Read more ....

My Comment: Both sides want a return to the war of last year. Unfortunately, we in the West have not helped the situation by openly supporting the Georgian Government with weapon supplies and training.

The Coming Russia-Georgia Clash Over Abkhazia

From Newsweek:

All summer, Kremlin officials hinted that hostilities between Russia and Georgia could rise to a boil again. Now it looks as if Moscow has decided to turn up the heat. Last week a Russian patrol boat carrying rockets docked in a port along the coast of Abkhazia, one of Georgia's Russian-backed breakaway republics. Moscow has promised nine more ships to follow. They will confront a small fleet of U.S.-supplied Georgian gunboats, which until now have effectively blockaded Abkhazia, seizing ships--including a Turkish tanker--attempting to supply the rebel government.

Read more ....

My Comment: I do not share Newsweek's viewpoint that Russia wants to raise the "heat" on this issue. Are there tensions ... of course there are. Does Georgia want to retake Abkhazia .... of course they do. Will the Russians permit this to happen .... they will not.

The Georgian Navy can huff and puff but they are no match for the Russian Navy in the region. If Georgia decides to pull a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident in which their smaller patrol boats attack Russian warships .... they will be defeated. But if Georgia wants to stoke an international confrontation but doing such a stunt .... they will probably succeed. Is this wise .... no .... but it will bring back international attention to the Caucasus, which is probably Georgia's objective anyway.

Russia - Georgian Relations Are Still Tense

European Patrols Brace for Rise in Tension Over Report on 2008 War in Georgia -- New York Times

MOSCOW — European Union monitors are stepping up their patrols in Georgia ahead of the release of a much anticipated report on the origins of last year’s war in South Ossetia, in case the report’s conclusions reignite tensions around the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

There has been heated speculation about the European Union report, which will be presented next Wednesday to the organization’s Council of Ministers in Brussels. Both Russia and Georgia maintain that they bear no responsibility for the war’s outbreak, and each says it hopes that its version of events will be the one that the commission writes into the historic record.

Read more ....

My Comment: While the fighting may have stopped, the tensions that led to the war are still there. I do not expect this report to change anything, but to only validate each sides claim to what caused the conflict.

The continuing tensions in the Georgian region also reflects the continuing tensions and low level insurgencies that plague the Caucasus. Different ethnic groups have been fighting in this region for centuries. The Russians are trying their best to at least not have an all out conflict in the region .... but as the Georgian war proved last year .... it may be calm today, but tomorrow a full blown war can break out involving thousands of troops and hundreds of thousands of refugees.

Black Sea Port Is Flash Point For Georgia And Russia

From The New York Times:

MOSCOW — Rising tensions between Russia and Georgia over shipping rights to a breakaway Georgian region have opened a potential new theater for conflict between the countries, a little more than a year after they went to war.

Georgia’s coast guard has commandeered five merchant vessels from various countries this year for violating Georgian laws on shipping to a Black Sea port in Abkhazia, the breakaway region. Last week, a Georgian court sentenced the captain of a Turkish cargo ship to 24 years in prison for border violations, though he was quickly released at Turkey’s behest.

Read more ....

My Comment: The Georgian's are trying to make a provokation .... and my bet is that the Russian Navy will be sending a message sooner rather than later.

Georgia - Russia War: One Year Later

A Russian soldier raises the Russian flag at a border guard outpost
in the South Ossetian village of Girei. Photo AFP

A Year After Russia-Georgia War: A New Reality, But Old Relations -- Radio Free Europe

A year after the five-day military conflict between Georgia and Russia that left Russian forces occupying the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, tensions in the region are rising again.

Georgian officials continue to place their hopes on the ability of the international community to resolve the situation.

"The international community and international law are on Georgia's side," lawmaker David Darchiashvili, who chairs the Georgian parliament's Committee for European Integration, told journalists recently.

Read more ....

More News On The 1rst Anniversary Of The Georgian - Russian War

Russia and Georgia Battle Over Position in History -- Wall Street Journal
Georgia: Uneasy peace a year after war with Russia -- AP
Russia to increase border troops deployed in Abkhazia, South Ossetia -- China View
Russia accuses US of rearming Georgia -- Yahoo News/AFP
Russia Charges US Is Rearming Georgia -- Voice of America
Georgia denies claim of "aggressive rearming" -- Reuters
Russo-Georgia One Year On: From Reset to Repeat? -- Strategy Page
Russia backs EU, not U.S., role in Georgia -- Reuters
South Ossetia seeks to go it alone -- AP

Tensions Rising (Again) Between Russia And Georgia After Reported Attack

Georgian tanks maneuver on the last day of the Pari 2009 tactical field exercises.
Photo AFP

Russia Accuses Georgia of Raising Tension After Report of Attack in South Ossetia -- New York Times

MOSCOW — Russia’s Defense Ministry released a statement on Saturday accusing Georgia of trying to stoke violence in South Ossetia, and vowed to “use all means and resources available to protect the citizens of the republic of South Ossetia and the Russian servicemen.”

The strongly worded statement, one week before the first anniversary of the war in South Ossetia, came after the South Ossetian government reported two rounds of mortar fire coming from Georgian-controlled territory on Saturday morning.

It says that analogous events a year ago “led to Georgia’s unleashing of military aggression on South Ossetia and an attack on the Russian peacekeeping contingent.”

The statement warns that Russia will use all military means to protect South Ossetia “in case of further provocative steps.”

Read more ....

More News On Russian - Georgian Tensions

Tensions Flare Up In Russia, Georgia -- Washington Post
Russia Says Georgia Fired on South Ossetia, Threatens Force -- Bloomberg
Russia warns of force if more Georgia 'provocations' -- AFP
Russia warns Georgia as S.Ossetia tension rises -- Reuters
INTERVIEW - Rebel S.Ossetia wants unity with Russia, more troops -- Reuters
South Ossetia one year on: Georgians wait in fear for Russians to return -- The Telegraph
INTERVIEW - Saakashvili says Russia still wants him out -- Reuters

My Comment: This week marks the first year anniversary of the Russian - Georgian war. Not surprisingly .... tensions are high with both sides wondering what will happen next.

Russia Warns Against Arms Sales to Georgia

U.S. soldiers teach Georgian soldiers how to deal with unexploded ordinance as part of the Georgia Train and Equip Program. Under the program, the U.S. Defense Department is training and equipping four specialized battalions, one company-sized team, and about 200 staff officers in Georgia. U.S. defense officials say improving the Georgian military will ultimately aid the American war on global terrorism. Photo by Senior Airman Latonia L. Brown, USAF

From The New York Times:

TBILISI, Georgia – As Georgia’s president proclaimed Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s visit to this country a “major diplomatic victory,” a top Russian diplomat announced sanctions against foreign companies that sell weapons to Tblisi.

Georgia is hoping that United States will provide antitank and antiaircraft weapons to replenish an army battered by last year’s war with Russia. After talks in Tbilisi, the capital, American officials said the United States had so far made no commitment to supply weapons, but did not rule it out, saying the matter was under review.

Read more ....

My Comment: The Russians are drawing their red line on the issue of Georgia. Will the U.S. and the West respect it .... we shall see.

Russian Veto Ends UN Mission To Georgia

From Yahoo News/AP:

UNITED NATIONS – Russia has brought to an end the nearly 16-year-old U.N. observer mission that monitored a cease-fire between Georgia and its breakaway Abkhazia region.

Russia exercised its veto power in the U.N. Security Council — toppling a Western plan to extend the life of the U.N. mission for another year, or even two more weeks, to work out a compromise. The vote late Monday was 10-1 with four abstentions — China, Vietnam, Libya and Uganda.

The mission's mandate expired at 0400 GMT Tuesday, (midnight Monday in New York), requiring about 130 military observers and more than a dozen police to leave. Both the name — the U.N. Observer Mission in Georgia — and references to Georgia's territorial sovereignty were sticking points.

Read more ....

My Comment:Every time Russia alienates an ethnic group in the region, they are laying the groundwork for long term conflict and low intensity war. I can easily see the Caucasus being a thorn on the Russian side for the foreseeable future.

Disagreements Persist Over Georgian Territories

Photo: Georgia's interior ministry servicemen inspect the site of an explosion at a railway station in Zugdidi June 11, 2009. Reuters

From The Wall Street Journal:

Disagreements between Moscow and the West over the status of two Georgian territories Russia has controlled since winning a brief war last year are threatening to force the withdrawal of international observer missions there.

Negotiations this week in New York aimed at agreeing on terms to renew the mandate for United Nations monitors in one of the territories, Abkhazia, failed to break the deadlock, according to an official familiar with the process.

Read more ....

My Comment: Russia has laid the groundwork for a low intensity conflict in this region for the next few decades.

Russia Digs In Alongside Breakaway Territories

Image from Russia Blog

From The New York Times:

MOSCOW — Russian border guards on Saturday began taking up long-term positions along the boundaries of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, an arrangement that will probably mean sustained tension in the two breakaway Georgian territories.

Security treaties signed on Thursday in Moscow between Russia and the two territories called for joint patrols in South Ossetia and Abkhazia for an unspecified period along the boundaries that separate the enclaves from the rest of Georgia. The State Department expressed “serious concern” over the arrangement, saying it violated Georgia’s territorial integrity and broke commitments made in a cease-fire agreement reached last fall.

Read more ....

My Comment: This move by Russia is only going to insure more strife and conflict in the Caucasus for the foreseeable future.

Update: NATO games in Georgia draw fire from Russia -- Reuters

Russia, NATO, And Georgian Tensions Are Still Simmering

Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili Photo: REUTERS

Russia Demands NATO Call Off Exercises In Georgia -- Reuters

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia demanded on Thursday that NATO call off planned military exercises in Georgia, saying they could undermine its efforts to rebuild ties with the Western alliance.

Ex-Soviet Georgia has become a focus of tension between the West and Russia, which sees it as part of its sphere of influence. NATO's offer of eventual membership for Georgia has angered Moscow, which sent troops into Georgia last August.

"This is absurd and a provocation," Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, told Reuters by telephone. "I have asked the NATO secretary general...to postpone these exercises or to cancel them."

Read more ....

More News On The Increase Of Tensions Between Russia, Nato, And Georgia

Russia Urges NATO to Call Off Exercises in Georgia -- Voice Of America
Russia demands Nato call off exercises in Georgia -- The Telegraph
Russia angered by Nato exercises -- BBC
Words flare between Georgia and Russia -- Reuters
Abkhazia says no need for EU peace observers -- RIA Novosti
“Cabbage protests” wilt for Georgia’s opposition -- World Focus
Russia and Georgia to resume talks in May: UN -- EU Business

Protests In Georgia's Capital Spark New Tension With Russia

From The Christian Science Monitor:

Along the border with South Ossetia, villagers say Russian tanks have recently arrived – their barrels aimed squarely at Georgia.

Ergneti, Georgia - Thousands of people continue to rally for President Mikhail Saakashvili's resignation in Tbilisi. But for those living in villages along the South Ossetian border, the protests have only brought anxiety as they try to reestablish their lives in the conflict zone.

"We're just simple farmers here," says Ilia Kasradze, part of a group of a dozen people who gathered to distribute a recent delivery of firewood in Ergneti, a Georgian village only a mile from the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. "The protests will spoil things and have a bad effect on us."

Read more ....

My Comment: Russia is not concerned nor worried about any reactions from President Obama's administration .... for now. During the interim .... they are going to keep up the economic and political pressure on the Central Government of Georgia for as long as they want.

Russia Military Occupation Of Parts Of Georgia Continues

Russian Tanks In Georgia. August, 2008 (Photo from Radio Free Europe)

Moscow’s Military Occupation Continues Despite Peace Deal -- Times Online

At a military checkpoint that should not exist a Russian lieutenant apologised for being unable to offer any tea. “We don’t have electricity right now,” he said as he led The Times into a fortified compound behind the unrecognised border between Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia.

At least three Russian tanks are dug in around the checkpoint on a narrow mountain road leading to the town of Akhalgori, their guns pointing south towards Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi.

Read more ....

My Comment: When the war ended last year, I mentioned that as long as Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili stayed in power, the Russians were not going to leave.

Flashback to today ..... even though there is a coalition of Georgian opposition groups who want Mikheil Saakashvili to be gone .... he is still firmly in power.

I expect him to still stay in power .... and as for the Russians .... they are going no where.