The Syrian Army Is A Shell Of Its Former Self

Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad get briefed before being deployed from the al-Sabaa Bahrat district to the old souk of Aleppo February 21, 2013. REUTERS/GEORGE OURFALIAN

Tom Cooper, War Is Boring: What’s Left of the Syrian Arab Army?

Not much

The general impression is that the Syrian Arab Army remains the largest military force involved in the Syrian Civil War, and that — together with the so-called National Defense Forces — it remains the dominant military service under the control of government of Pres. Bashar Al Assad.

Media that are at least sympathetic to the Al-Assad regime remain insistent in presenting the image of the “SAA fighting on all front lines” — only sometimes supported by the NDF and, less often, by “allies.”

The devil is in the details, as some say. Indeed, a closer examination of facts on the ground reveals an entirely different picture. The SAA and NDF are nearly extinct.

Because of draft-avoidance and defections — and because Al Assad’s regime was skeptical of the loyalty of the majority of its military units — the SAA never managed to fully mobilize.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I am sceptical of the claim that there are 10,000 to 15,000 Russian troops in Syria .... Russian social media puts the numbers at around 7,000 Russian troops. And as for the rest of the Syrian army .... reports from last year publicized the man-power shortage that the Syrian army was facing .... so now relying on outsiders (Hezbollah/Iraqis/Iranians/etc.) is not a surprise. The establishment of Syrian sectarian militias is also not a surprise .... I have been reading and posting  reports for the past 3 years outlining this development, and we are now seeing Iraq use the same tactic (i.e. Shiite militias) in its war against the Islamic State .... Forces fighting for Iraq's Fallujah (AFP).

These Are The Reasons Why Thousands Of Soldiers Have Deserted The Syrian Military

Syrian civilians who volunteered to join local Self Protection Units to protect their neighborhoods alongside the Syrian army attend training near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his father, the late former president Hafez al-Assad, near Damascus on Dec. 5. (Omar Sanadiki/Reuters)

Washington Post: The Syrian military has thousands of deserters. New research tells us why they left

The recent series of attacks by the Islamic State in the Sinai, Beirut and Paris could well be a game changer in how the international community deals with the Syrian conflict. And yet, the Islamic State and other extremist groups are only one side of a more complex conflict pattern in the Syrian civil war. The regime of Bashar al-Assad is blamed not only for indiscriminate repression of an initially Arab-Spring-like popular uprising, but also for the vast majority of casualties, both among civilian and opposition fighters. That the regime could rely on loyal security security forces to confront the uprising and continues to do so in the context of the ongoing civil war thus significantly shaped the course of the crisis. Yet loyalty and disloyalty in the Syrian military remain poorly understood.

WNU Editor: Why do Syrian soldiers desert .... no surprises in this report .... we have covered it more than once in this blog. But it is a good summary on why soldiers desert the Syrian military .... and why rebel groups like the Islamic State are able to recruit Syrian fighters to their cause.

Did U.S. Officials Exaggerate Syria's Air Defenses?

Israeli Airstrikes May Have Exposed Syrian Flaw, U.S. Officials Say -- L.A. Times

WASHINGTON — Recent Israeli strikes inside Syria may have exposed weaknesses in the regime’s air defenses and could embolden the U.S. and its allies to take more steps to aid rebels fighting the regime there, said lawmakers on Sunday.

“The Russian-supplied air defense systems are not as good as said,” Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) said on NBC’s "Meet the Press." Leahy, who heads the appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations, said the Israeli defense forces were using American-made F-16 Fighting Falcon jets to launch the missiles against Syrian targets.

“Keep in mind the Israelis are using weapons supplied by us,” Leahy said. “They have enormous prowess with those weapons.”

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Update #1: US senators: Israel’s airstrikes prove Syria’s air defenses not as strong as once thought -- Washington Post/AP
Update #2: Syria's army is not quite what Israelis have been led to believe -- Haaretz
Update #3: Senator Leahy: Syrian air defenses 'not as good as were said' -- Digital Journal

My Comment: Before this weeks Israeli air strikes .... the consensus was that Syria's air defense were formidable. After these Israeli air strikes .... the consensus is now changing. What's my take .... I suspect that these air defense networks are actually very effective .... but the problem (for the Syrian military) is that they are more focused on fighting the Syrian rebels than manning air defense networks for possible Israeli or foreign incursions.

Israel: Russia May Be Selling Syria Arms

From The Jerusalem Post:

Fearing that Damascus is acquiring advanced military platforms, Israel is closely following meetings being held in Moscow this week between a high-level Syrian military delegation and Russian Defense Ministry officials.

Senior government officials in Jerusalem said they have been aware for several days of the Syrians' upcoming visit to the Russian capital but that it was not yet clear which military platforms Damascus was requesting.

Read more ....

My Comment: Expect Israel to start requesting advanced weapon systems from the U.S. soon. In previous posts I have outlined my concerns on the possibility that a new arms race in the Middle East is starting to take off, with the pursuit of nuclear weapon systems being the priority. I forgot that conventional weapons should also be included in this mix.

With hundreds of billions of dollars now flowing into the Middle East from high oil prices, it should not be a surprise to see a good chunk of this money going back into purchasing weapons.