Many Expecting A Political Battle Over Next Year's U.S. Defense Budget

The Hill: Trump and Congress on collision course with military spending

The House, Senate and President Trump are heading toward a collision over next year’s defense budget.

A recent report ordered by Congress found that the U.S. military is facing a "grave" erosion in superiority.

Senate Republicans see the report as evidence of the need for a $733 billion defense budget in the next fiscal year.

But Democrats who will control the House starting in January want to cut defense spending. And Trump has already ordered his administration to trim the defense budget to $700 billion for next year.

All that combines for what is likely to be a fiery and lengthy debate in the coming budget season.

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WNU Editor:In the past I would say that nothing would come out of it. Concessions will be made, and the defense budget will be bigger than the year before. But President Trump appears to want cuts, and many incoming Democrat Progressives are not interesting in compromising. Bottom line .... it is going to be an interesting 6 months.

U.S. Senate Reaches Budget Deal That Would Set Defense Spending At $700 Billion For 2018 And $716 Billion For 2019

Defense News: Senate reaches budget deal with huge defense boost

WASHINGTON — Senate leaders have reached a two-year deal that would set defense spending at $700 billion for 2018 and $716 billion for 2019.

Those top-lines, part of a deal announced by Senate leaders Wednesday afternoon, hews to those authorized by National Defense Authorization Act for 2018 and President Donald Trump’s expected 2019 defense budget.

Not all of the details were announced immediately, as bipartisan talks continued, but sources close to them said spending limits for defense and non-defense combined would be raised by $300 billion over two years.

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WNU Editor: U.S. Secretary of Defense Mattis got everything he wanted .... and then some more. As to what is my take .... the U.S. government's addiction to spend and have deficits continues. As for the $1.416 trillion slated to the Pentagon for the next two years .... I am willing to bet that when the House of Representatives are finished adding their favorite programs .... there will be a few more billion in this number.

More News On The U.S. Senate Reaching A Budget Deal That Would Set Defense Spending At $700 Billion For 2018 And $716 Billion For 2019

Overnight Defense: Senate reaches budget deal with boost for defense | Defense hawks approve -- The Hill
Two-Year Budget Deal Would Raise Caps, Give Pentagon $700B in 2018 -- Defense One
The proposed US defense budget could fund China’s nearly four times over -- Quartz

The White House Defense Budget Spending Request For 2019 Is $716 billion

President Donald Trump speaks during the 9/11 observance ceremony at the Pentagon in Washington on Sept. 11, 2017. (Army Sgt. Amber I. Smith/U.S. Defense Department)

CNBC: Trump to jack up defense spending request to $716 billion in 2019 budget, report says

* The Trump administration will request a $716 billion budget for defense spending in 2019, the Washington Post reports.
* The 2018 budget still hasn't made it through Congress.
* The U.S. spent about $634 billion on defense in 2017, the Post reported.

The Trump administration is expected to raise its defense spending target to $716 billion for the 2019 budget, a significant increase from the prior year, the Washington Post reported Friday.

The budget, expected to be unveiled next month, would mark an increase of more than 7 percent over the defense spending allotment from the 2018 budget — which still has not passed through Congress.

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WNU Editor: This is a major increase .... and far more than anyone expected.

More News On Reports That The 2019 U.S. Defense Budget  Request Will Be $716 Billion

Trump to ask for $716 billion in defense spending in 2019 budget: US officials -- Reuters
Trump plans to ask for $716 billion for national defense in 2019 — a major increase -- Washington Post
Pentagon Wins as Trump Readies a $716 Billion Budget Request -- Bloomberg
Trump's Bombshell 2019 Defense Budget -- The Fiscal Times
Is the Pentagon getting a raise in FY19? -- DefenseNews

President Trump Is Proposing A 10% Increase In Defense Spending

Washington Post: Trump to propose 10 percent spike in defense spending, massive cuts to other agencies

President Trump will propose a federal budget that dramatically increases defense-related spending by $54 billion while cutting other federal agencies by the same amount, according to an administration official.

The proposal represents a massive increase in federal spending related to national security, while other priorities, especially foreign aid, will see significant reductions.

According to the White House, the defense budget will increase by 10 percent. But without providing any specifics, the administration said that most other discretionary spending programs will be slashed to pay for it. Officials singled out foreign aid, one of the smallest parts of the federal budget, saying it would see “large reductions” in spending.

It is the first indication of spending priorities by the new administration, with the president set to arrive on Capitol Hill Tuesday night for a joint session speech to Congress. But the full budget negotiations between Trump and Congress will not be complete for many months.

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WNU Editor: I am surprised by this number. This is an increase far beyond what I had expected. Congress will still have to sign onto it .... and there are many variables that may change this final number. But what bothers me is that before committing to such a massive increase .... a debate on what should be America's national security priorities and focus should be done first .... and after that a discussion on how make a budget that will reflect these priorities. Stating a budget number .... and then go about blindly meeting it .... is what has been done in the past .... and it has not helped U.S. security nor has it helped America's finances.

On a side note .... expect concerns on this 10% defense budget increase from Moscow and Beijing being voiced in the coming day or two.

More News On President Trump  A 10% Increase In Defense Spending

Trump seeks 'historic increase' in U.S. defense spending, cuts elsewhere -- Reuters
White House: Trump budget will hike defense spending by $54B -- AP
Trump to Propose 10% Defense Increase in Budget Plan, Aides Say -- Bloomberg
Trump's first budget proposal will call for $54 billion increase in defense spending -- CNBC
Trump plots big increase in defense spending -- AFP
White House budget guidance calls for $54B defense bump, domestic cuts -- Politico
Donald Trump to Propose $54 Billion Increase in Military Spending -- WSJ
Trump wants to add $54 billion to defense budget while slashing domestic spending and foreign aid -- L.A. Times

Is Chinese And Russian Military Spending Combined Equal To What The U.S. Is Currently Spending?

China's President Xi Jinping (front), Russian President Vladimir Putin (2nd row), and US President Barack Obama (3rd row) walk as they take part in an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) family photo inside the International Convention Center at Yanqi Lake in Beijing, Nov. 11, 2014.

Kaya Forest and Sierra Rayne, American Thinker: China and Russia combined now at military spending parity with US

Each year about this time, as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) releases its global military spending database, we hear the same refrain: the United States spends more than the next [insert your favorite large number here] countries combined.

How wrong these analyses are, and those who advocate for greater American defense expenditures should know better.

Comparing military spending among major powers using a common U.S. dollar metric is simply economic nonsense. Given that adversaries such as China and Russia, among others, have massive in-house arms manufacturing capabilities as well as expend great resources on indigenous operations and maintenance requirements, the correct means of comparison is on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.

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Update: Good News, Russia and China: The Great Shrinking of the US Military Is Here (Justin T. Johnson, National Interest)

WNU Editor: I am always sceptical of these reports. The U.S. may spend $600 billion on their military, but this does not include the intelligence budgets, the DOE's nuclear budget, and a whole bunch of other government programs and organizations. As for China's and Russia's defense budgets .... current economic hardships are resulting in decreasing military budgets .... not increasing.

A Lesson On How U.S. Lawmakers Are Blocking U.S. Defense Budget Cuts

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff US Army General Martin Dempsey (l.) and Army Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno testify before a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Defense Department proposals relating to military compensation, on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 6. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Military Budget: Four Ways US Lawmakers Are Blocking Pentagon Cost-Cutting -- Anna Mulrine, Christian Science Monitor

The Pentagon is under pressure to cut the military budget but is facing push-back from members of Congress on issues ranging from pay rates and force size to weapons and base closures.

The Pentagon is under considerable pressure to cut spending, but while top defense officials and military analysts are in general agreement about where those cuts should be, Congress often balks. Lawmakers face pressure from lobbyists, after all, to keep expensive weapons programs going, particularly when they bring money and jobs to congressional districts.

As the defense budget comes up for debate on Capitol Hill this week, the House Armed Services Committee has already voted to block many of the cost-saving measures proposed by the Pentagon. While the committee’s proposed bill moves to the House floor for debate, the Senate Armed Services Committee is taking up its own version of the defense budget.

White House officials have threatened to veto any legislation that forces the Pentagon to keep allocating funds for costly weapons systems at the expense, they say, of keeping troops well-trained.

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My Comment: The next round of budget cuts are going to be brutal .... and as a result .... expect the politics to be just as rough. This is also an election year .... and my gut is telling me that Democrats are going to be in trouble from this part of the electorate (i.e. military/defense industries/etc.).

Four U.S. National Security-Focused Think Tanks Present Their Dream Defense Budgets

The Pentagon, headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, taken from an airplane in January 2008. Wikipedia

Think Tanks’ Dream Defense Budgets Defeat China, But Not Politics -- Kevin Baron, Defense One

Four of Washington’s premier think tanks presented their dream defense budgets that reveal one common theme: national security leaders know a lot more about getting past China’s defenses than they do about getting past House and Senate budget leaders.

A perfect world for think tanks, it seems, would be free of the partisan politics that govern the Pentagon and all government spending, and of the actual spending constraints limiting Defense Department strategists today. Positioning nuclear attack submarines, stealth fighters and missile defenses closer to China’s front door is an easy call. Positioning a defense authorization bill that includes modest cuts to military benefits and raises underpriced healthcare costs – well, that’s not the job of Washington’s defense spending brain trust.

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More News On Four U.S. National Security-Focused Think Tanks Presenting Their Dream Defense Budgets

Analysts: US Should Cut Carriers, Buy Subs and Work With Allies -- Defense News
Cut Carriers To Save Subs, Cyber From Sequester, Thinktanks Say -- Breaking Defense
Cuts in U.S. defense spending force hard strategic choices -- Chicago Tribune/Reuters
Think Tanks Project Force Structure, Strategy Under Continued Sequestration -- Sea Power

WNU Editor: To look at what each of these four think tanks presented .... go here.

Update: A great summary .... Half-wit think-tanks pollute the 2015 DOD budget process -- Eric Palmer Blog

A Soldier’s-Eye View On The U.S. Government Shutdown

U.S. Army 1st Sgt. Sean Allison, left, and U.S. Army Ryan Skeffington provide security on the roof of the U.S. Consulate in Herat city in Afghanistan’s Herat province, Sept. 19, 2013. Allison and Skeffington are assigned to the 1st Cavalry Division's Company D, 1st Battalion, 5th Cavalry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Ryan D. Green

Shutdown at Ground Level: A Soldier’s-Eye View -- David Small, Daily Beast

The president signed a bill protecting pay for members of the military, but the shutdown is still impacting operations. Air Force vet David Small explains the budget crisis’s continuing impact on the military.

President Obama signed a last-minute bill Monday night, approved by the House and Senate, to ensure that even during a government shutdown members of the military would still be paid. But that bill came too late to stave off the hurried preparations that occurred on every military base in America on Monday as everyone from top leaders to junior soldiers got ready for the impact. Nor did the bill make clear exactly how many DoD civilians and contractors with jobs related to the military would be protected. According to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, pay will continue for civilians with jobs that “are providing support to members of the armed forces.” But support is a broad term and may not cover many of the ancillary functions that are essential to day-to-day activities and quality of life within the military, but are not deemed essential for conducting critical operations.

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My Comment: A sobering commentary from one who is seeing the impact of government cutbacks on the common Defense Department employee.

Budget Cuts Will 'Gut' The Pentagon's Modernization Goals

Sequester Will 'Gut' DoD Modernization; Navy's SSBN-X, Long Range Strike, Other New Starts In Peril -- Aol Defense

WASHINGTON: Every senior civilian leader and the Navy agree that America needs replacements for the Ohio-class nuclear missile submarines if our nuclear deterrent is to remain credible. But the SSBN-X, as the program is known, is at risk from the mandatory budget cuts known as sequestration, the influential head of CAPE, the Pentagon's budget and cost estimation shop, Christine Fox, said yesterday evening.

CAPE, known formally as the office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, not only does program evaluation for the Defense Secretary but it also builds the Future Year Defense Program (FYDP), a key part of the defense budget process. I asked Fox at the end of the McAleese Associates/Credit Suisse conference what the Pentagon can do to protect new starts if sequestration remains in force and it must cut such large amounts from existing programs.

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Update: Weapons Programs at Great Risk, Pentagon Analyst Says -- Bloomberg

My Comment: 'Gut' is too mild a description .... I would call it eviscerate.

With Sequestration About To Happen, Defense Contractors Tell Shareholders To Not Worry

As Sequestration Looms, Contractors Don’t Fret -- Washington Post

The next few months could look even scarier than the last few for defense contractors already battered by federal budget cuts, thanks to the threat of automatic reductions looming in March. But industry executives had a surprising message for shareholders this week: Don’t worry about it.

In call after call with investors, officials at some of the area’s largest contracting firms refused to guess how much it would cost them if Congress allows the “sequester” to kick in on March 1. Even as their lobbyists keep warning how much the cuts would hurt the industry, the executives are projecting confidence that the sequester will not happen.

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My Comment: I say worry.

Fiscal Cliff Deal Means That The Pentagon Is Facing $45 Billion In Cuts

An aerial view of the Pentagon Building in Washington. (REUTERS / June 15, 2005)

New Year's Deal Left Pentagon Facing $45 Billion In Cuts: Comptroller -- Reuters

The New Year's Day law that delayed across-the-board cuts in U.S. defense spending by two months also trimmed the size of the reduction for the 2013 fiscal year by about $17 billion, the Pentagon's chief financial officer said on Monday.

Defense Department Comptroller Robert Hale said the cuts that would be required in March if Congress is unable to agree on a compromise alternative would be roughly $45 billion under the new law, versus about $62 billion earlier.

The new amount would be about 9 percent of the Pentagon's budget for 2013, versus about 12 percent under the previous law, Hale said in remarks at the Brookings Institution think tank.

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More News On The Pentagon Facing $45 Billion In Cuts

New Year's deal left Pentagon facing $45 billion in cuts: comptroller -- Reuters
Threatened delay in defense budget adds to planners’ uncertainty -- Government Executive
Hale: Fiscal Cliff Deal Reduces Funding Blow to Defense -- Defense News
Defense industry fears sequestration delay won't stop Pentagon cuts -- The Hill
Defense Budget Cuts of $45 Billion Seen by Pentagon -- Bloomberg
Pentagon cuts could 
idle civilian defense 
workers by thousands -- Washington Times
Fog Thickens Around Pentagon Budget -- National Defense
Defense Spending Cuts Threaten 10% of Pentagon Budget -- Townhall
Time is ticking for DOD to submit 2014 budget, even though this year remains in limbo (with links) -- al.com

Getting Ready For The U.S. Defense Budget Cuts

Defense Department To Hill: Save Us From Budget Ax -- Politico

Washington’s defense community may be eagerly awaiting a report from the White House to detail how it would implement across-the-board budget cuts early next year, but the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer already can describe how they’d work.

“If you want to know what will happen to your program, look at how much money you expect to have in your budget next year and cut 11 percent,” said Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition Frank Kendall, calling it “a singularly stupid way to take money out of the defense budget.”

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More News On The Upcoming U.S. Defense Budget Cuts

U.S. arms buyer expects Congress to delay automatic budget cuts -- Reuters
Defense industry bracing for further budget cuts -- Reuters
Defense contractors prepare for budget cuts -- Pacific Business News
Arms makers to meet Pentagon on looming budget cuts -- Reuters
U.S. arms buyer foresees more program terminations -- Reuters

Is There A Division Among Top US Defense Firms That Defense Cuts Would Endanger National Security

Firms Split On Danger Of Defense Cuts -- Defcon Hill

Boeing, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman have begun to break ranks with other top-tier defense firms warning that $500 billion in automatic defense cuts would hurt national security and lead to devastating job losses.

While these companies remain firmly against the cuts, they are not offering doomsday scenarios of what sequestration would mean to their industry in closed-door meetings with senior decision-makers on Capitol Hill, according to an industry source.

They are also sounding a different note in public.

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My Comment: These defense firms can voice all the warnings that they want .... but this is what the politicians are looking at.

Trying To Get The Public's Support To Fight Against Defense Budget Cuts

Senators Look For Outside Pressure To Aid Budget Fight -- Aviation Week

With Senate leadership locked in a fight over taxes, a small group of Republican and Democratic senators, local politicians and outside groups are trying to stress just how devastating a $1 trillion across-the-board budget cut would be to the nation’s economy.

The reduction to the federal budget is set to take place unless Congress agrees to reduce the federal deficit by $1.2 trillion or passes a law replacing one already on the books.

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My Comment: Politicians and industry leaders are trying their best to inform the public that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk .... but with most Americans in favor of cutting the defense budget, I suspect that the White House and many in Congress will go along with these cuts.

U.S. Defense Budget Battles Begins

House Skirmish Over Defense Spending Begins -- Walter Pincus, Washington Post

The roller-coaster ride is about to begin for defense spending, and it promises to be long and bumpy.

On Thursday, subcommittees of the House Armed Services Committee begin to mark up the fiscal 2013 Defense Authorization Bill. This will be the ride up because the Republican-controlled panel has indicated that it will add about $8 billion to the $546 billion set by the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA). President Obama, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta and the Joint Chiefs of Staff supported the BCA, but the president’s budget is $3.7 billion above the BCA figure. That’s because it includes security spending for agencies other than the Pentagon.

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More News On The Upcoming U.S. Defense Budget Battles

U.S. House Lawmakers Add $1.1 Billion for Army, Air Force Programs -- Defense News
Defense Panel Leader Aims to Boost Tanks, Missile Defense -- Bloomberg
McKeon: No more cuts to Army’s heavy brigades -- Navy Times
More BRAC May be Dead -- Military.com
House says no to more base closures -- The Hill
Congress Wants More Subs And Destroyers For The U.S. Navy -- Aol Defense
HASC Orders DoD To Fly Block 30 Global Hawks; Sticks $260M In Bill -- Aol Defense

Pentagon Chiefs Worry About Impending Budget Cuts

DEFENSE BRIEFING
Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta briefs the press while Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, listens at the Pentagon, April 16, 2012. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo

Panetta, Dempsey Say Pentagon Feels Sequestration’s Shadow -- Defpro

The shadow of sequestration is being cast over the Defense Department, and members of Congress must act to dissipate it, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said here Apr. 16.

Panetta and Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke about sequestration and the defense budget during a news conference at the Pentagon.

“Sequestration” refers to a mechanism based into the Budget Control Act that would trigger an additional $500 billion cut across the board for defense spending over the next decade if Congress doesn’t find an alternative by January.

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More News On The Pentagon's Budget Concerns

Panetta Urges Congress to De-Trigger Sequestration Cuts -- Government Executive
Panetta, Dempsey Say Pentagon Feels Sequestration’s Shadow -- US Department of Defense
Panetta scoffs at GOP claims of dissent in the ranks over budget -- The Hill
Dempsey, Panetta Refute GOP Claims of Budget Dissenters -- National Journal
Defense Department Must Prepare for Deeper Budget Cuts -- David Berteau and Clark Murdock, National Defense

Pentagon Weapon Programs: Delivering Less, Later, For More Money

Cost Of U.S. DoD’s Major Acquisition Programs Grew by $74.4Bn in 2011 -- Defpro

The cost of the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD) major acquisition programs grew by $74.4 billion in the past year and now totals more than $1.58 trillion, according to a recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. And, this $74.4 billion is just a fraction of the overall cost growth in a DoD weapons acquisition portfolio that, on balance, is delivering fewer weapons for more money.

The defense acquisitions portfolio has been plagued by reductions in the number of weapons delivered, delayed delivery times, and enormous cost overruns. In fact, the total acquisition cost of this portfolio has grown by $447 billion, 40 percent above initial cost estimates.

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Previous Post: The Pentagon’s Latest Budget Numbers

My Comment: This is why the budget cutters want to slash the defense budget .... they know that there is no longer any accountability in the Pentagon if things go wrong .... which for the U.S. defense budget is now the rule rather than the exception.

The Pentagon’s Latest Budget Numbers

Lies, Damned Lies, And The Pentagon’s Latest Budget Numbers -- Time

There’s a pair of must-reads just out for anyone paying attention to the Pentagon’s acquisition nightmare: one is a routinely scheduled, but important, report from the Defense Department; the other comes from one of the very few entities doing even minimal oversight of the Department of Defense these days, the Government Accountability Office.

Reviewing the reports separately results in a muddled picture of how the Pentagon buys its weapons. Happily, each report fills some of the data missing in the other. But, the two reports still leave some gaping holes, while providing a false impression of progress in the way the Defense Department buys weapons.

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My Comment: The Pentagon's budget .... talk about depressing reading. The paragraph that sums up this Time's article perfectly is the following ....

.... Fourteen billion dollars for an aircraft carrier; $7 billion for an oversized destroyer; $161 billion for the “low cost” fighter bomber. These prices are truly out of control.

And, they are still growing.

Ouch!

Will Sequestration Cause Irreparable Harm To National Defense?

Sequestration Will Cause Irreparable Harm To National Defense -- U.S. News And World Report

Federal spending must be reduced alongside America's growing debt. How and where to cut should be the focus of an honest, national conversation. It should begin by discussing the federal agency that has borne the disproportionate share of all cuts: the U.S. military (which comprises just 19 percent of the budget and dropping). Next up, note that a full two thirds of the entire federal budget is devoted to Big 3 entitlement spending. This spending is on autopilot every year and was untouched in the latest debt ceiling despite the fact that even eliminating the defense budget in its entirety would not relieve explosive spending and debt burdens. Indeed, interest on the debt is set to overtake defense spending sometime in the next five years.

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My Comment: Will Congress reverse sequestration with a new bill .... will President Obama sign it .... my betting is no from the Senate, and no from the White House.

Update: Gen. Martin E. Dempsey has changed his mind .... he is now confident that the U.S. can still remain as a major power even with these cuts.

Taxpayer Contribution To The U.S. Defense Budget

Your Slice Of The Pentagon Budget -- DoD Buzz

In Fiscal 2012 the Defense Department asked for $553 billion in its base budget and $118 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ever wonder how much of that you specifically might have been on the hook for?

The White House on Wednesday unveiled a new “Federal Taxpayer Receipt” tool that lets you plug in the amount you paid in taxes and shows how all of it was distributed across the federal government, from the National Soup Administration to the Bureau of Nuts. At the very top of your “receipt” is the listing “national defense.”

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My Comment: This is the White House take on the budget .... and like all documents and info that comes from the White house .... this one is all political. And while I am not going to debate the national security aspect of the budget .... I have gone through that more than once in the past year .... I am chuckling at their 8.1% share calculation for paying off the interest on the national debt. According to my calculations .... that figure should be much higher.

Update: The White House is asserting that interest payments total 8.1% of tax payments hmmmm .... not so. The US budget is $3.796 trillion for fiscal 2012 .... of which $2.469 trillion is supported with tax receipts .... interest payments on the debt for 2011 (which is lower than what it will be for 2012) is $454 billion. In short .... the real interest payment on the debt is anywhere from 12% (of the budget) to about 18% of tax receipts.