Pope Francis Warns Of A World War Over Water

Pope Francis leads a mass on New Year's Day at Saint Peter's Basilica at the Vatican January 1, 2017. REUTERS/Remo Casilli

Crux: Pope Francis warns of a ‘great world war over water’

Talking at a Vatican sponsored meeting which called for the universal right to safe and accessible drinking water, Pope Francis also cited "troubling" statistics from the United Nations which indicate that each day, a thousand children die from water-related illnesses.

ROME - Access to clean drinking water is a basic human right and a key component in protecting human life, Pope Francis said.
“The right to water is essential for the survival of persons and decisive for the future of humanity,” the pope said Feb. 24 during a meeting with 90 international experts participating in a “Dialogue on Water” at the Pontifical Academy of Sciences.
Looking at all the conflicts around the globe, Pope Francis said, “I ask myself if we are not moving toward a great world war over water.”

Read more ....

Update #1: Pope Francis: Are we on the way to a major world war over water? (Rome Reports)
Update #2: ‘Great world war for water’ may be looming, Pope Francis says (RT)

WNU Editor: He has been making these warnings for years .... see here.

Iran's Growing Fresh Water Crisis

Karaj Dam in Iran. Chyzmyz

Iran’s Water Crisis: A Bigger Threat Than Israel? -- Zachary Keck, The Diplomat

A former agriculture minister has said Iran’s water shortage is a bigger threat to the country than either Israel or the United States, Al-Monitor reported this week citing local media.

According to Al-Monitor, Issa Kalantari, the minister of agricultural under president Hashemi Rafsanjani, told Ghanoon newspaper this week that the water crisis is the “main problem that threatens” Iran, adding that it is more dangerous “than Israel, America or political fighting” among the Iranian elite.

Kalatantari, who serves on president-elect Hassan Rouhani’s transition team and heads research on agricultural at the think tank Rouhani has headed since 1992, went on to say that if the water issue is not addressed, Iran could become “inhabitable.”

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My Comment: This is rapidly becoming the number one crisis in the Middle East as a whole, with Yemen becoming the bell-weather country of what to expect. Unfortunately .... when it comes to environmental policy in the Middle East .... this has always been a low priority .... if at all.

Iraq`s Prime Minister Warns Of 'Water Wars'

Iraq's PM Warns Arab States May Face 'Water War' -- BBC

Arab states could be headed towards a future war over water if they do not act quickly to tackle shortages, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has warned.

At a conference in Baghdad, he urged countries to work together in order to prevent conflict in the arid region.

Issues include desertification, poor water management, and the need for most Arab countries to rely on the goodwill of upstream states for river water.

Arab countries are seeking to address the water crisis with a unified plan.

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My Comment: Empires of the past were always 'water empires'. In today's world .... the legacy of those empires are still with us, but there is not enough water to supply the needs of a population that is growing and modernizing.

The Arab World's Next Crisis

Saudi Arabia Water Consumption. e=estimate, f=forecast. Source: Ministry Of Economy and Planning

This Will Be The Arab World's Next Battle -- Lester Brown, The Guardian

Population growth and water supply are on a collision course. Hunger is set to become the main issue.

Long after the political uprisings in the Middle East have subsided, many underlying challenges that are not now in the news will remain. Prominent among these are rapid population growth, spreading water shortages, and growing food insecurity.

In some countries grain production is now falling as aquifers – underground water-bearing rocks – are depleted. After the Arab oil-export embargo of the 1970s, the Saudis realised that since they were heavily dependent on imported grain, they were vulnerable to a grain counter-embargo. Using oil-drilling technology, they tapped into an aquifer far below the desert to produce irrigated wheat. In a matter of years, Saudi Arabia was self-sufficient in its principal food staple.

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My Comment: This blog has been talking about the impact that the Middle East water crisis will have on the region and on world food supplies for years .... all that I can say is expect more of these stories to increase in frequency in the years to come.

How China's Quest For Fresh Water Is Stirring Tensions With Its Neighbors

Image from Umbli

Water Wars? Thirsty, Energy-Short China Stirs Fear -- Seattle PI

BAHIR JONAI, India (AP) — The wall of water raced through narrow Himalayan gorges in northeast India, gathering speed as it raked the banks of towering trees and boulders. When the torrent struck their island in the Brahmaputra river, the villagers remember, it took only moments to obliterate their houses, possessions and livestock.

No one knows exactly how the disaster happened, but everyone knows whom to blame: neighboring China.

"We don't trust the Chinese," says fisherman Akshay Sarkar at the resettlement site where he has lived since the 2000 flood. "They gave us no warning. They may do it again."

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My Comment: When I first visited China in the mid 1980s, the first thing that I was told was to NOT drink the water. Later on, I then learned how drastic the water situation was in China, and on how development and urban growth coupled with deforestation had disrupted having a clean and stable fresh water supply. All of this happened over 25 years ago .... so I can only imagine how dire and desperate the situation must be for them today.

Will China change their policies in regards to water .... I doubt it. They want it, and as far as they are concerned .... it belongs to them. As for everyone else .... the Chinese altitude has been and still is "too bad".

WNU Editor: For more info on the death of China's rivers and its quest for water .... and the disastrous consequences of such a policy .... read this article from the Asia Times (and what is remarkable about it, is that it is from 2003). Another good analysis is here.

The Coming Fresh Water Shortages

People taking a bath during a local religious fair in Kurukshetra, a small city in northern India. On every solar eclipse, thousands of people come from all parts of India to take a dip in this holy tank. Photo from My Sweet World

India Could Face Water Woes In Coming Decades -- Voice of America

U.N. World Water Day is a reminder that some of the world's looming water crises are urgent and vast in scope. That is especially true in South Asia, where hundreds of millions of the world's poorest residents lack basic water infrastructure, and where access to natural water supplies is set to become ever more competitive.

U.S. intelligence officials believe water scarcity is shaping up to be one of the main potential drivers of future global conflict.

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My Comment: A billion plus people .... and water shortages. Talk about an unsustainable environment and an open invitation for conflict and turmoil. But the sentence that caught my attention was the following ....

U.S. intelligence officials believe water scarcity is shaping up to be one of the main potential drivers of future global conflict.

This assessment is 100% right.

Are Water Shortages The Next Crisis In The Arab World?

What Does The Arab World Do When Its Water Runs Out? -- The Guardian

Water usage in north Africa and the Middle East is unsustainable and shortages are likely to lead to further instability – unless governments take action to solve the impending crisis.

Poverty, repression, decades of injustice and mass unemployment have all been cited as causes of the political convulsions in the Middle East and north Africa these last weeks. But a less recognised reason for the turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Yemen, Jordan and now Iran has been rising food prices, directly linked to a growing regional water crisis.

The diverse states that make up the Arab world, stretching from the Atlantic coast to Iraq, have some of the world's greatest oil reserves, but this disguises the fact that they mostly occupy hyper-arid places. Rivers are few, water demand is increasing as populations grow, underground reserves are shrinking and nearly all depend on imported staple foods that are now trading at record prices.

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My Comment: This has always been the history within this region. Empires were always built on waterways (Nile, Tigris/Euphrates, Ganges, etc.), but for much of the Arab world, they are now reaching their limits. This certainly does not help.

Get Ready For The Water Riots

Photo via the Scurry Group

After Food Protests, Water Riots Are Next -- The Telegraph

Governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Yemen have faced protests in recent weeks, part fuelled by rising food costs. Unfortunately, this is a trend that looks set to continue and probably escalate over the next two decades.

The rise of the middle classes in emerging markets, coupled with a soaring world population, underpin an increase in the price of basics such as wheat, corn and sugar.

But the situation is going to be made much worse by the scarcity of water – the most important commodity there is.

"Water remains a more problematic commodity than food and fuel: though cheap in its natural state, it is expensive to process and expensive to transport, especially in the quantities necessary for agriculture," according to a report from a Washington-based think tank released last month.

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My Comment: I am so lucky living in Canada .... fresh water is so abundant and never an issue. When I travel abroad .... wow .... in some countries (i.e. China, India, Middle East) .... this is a very big issue. And while I can do without food for a week or more .... water .... that is a completely different story.

Fears Of Water Shortages In Africa And The Middle East May Lead To Unrest And Wars

Water Shortages Could Trigger Mideast Unrest -- Voice of America

Water is a scarce resource in the desert regions of the Middle East. Though disputes over water have come close to triggering wars between nations of the region in the past, diplomats intervened to keep tensions to a minimum. Now a new study suggests that, over the next 20 years, water shortages could trigger unrest within national borders instead of between the nations of the Middle East.

In the past, Middle East scholars have often pointed to shared river basins and disputes over underground water rights as causes for potential conflict between nations. That may not be surprising, because 10 of the 15 most water-poor countries in the world are in the region. However, according to a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, limited supplies of underground water within national borders of the Middle East pose a more immediate challenge.

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My Comment: Wars over water have not been an issue in the past century or two. But with growing and unsustainable populations in Africa and the middle east ..... I suspect that this is all going to change.

China's Coming Water Crisis

Water Shortages Reach Crisis Levels In China -- CNN

Beijing, China (CNN) -- China can't dam or divert water quickly enough to keep up with its thirsty population, and the shortage has reached crisis levels in Beijing and other areas.

In northern China this month, farm fields have developed cracks up to 10 meters (32.8 feet) deep. Farmers in Chifeng city have had to delay harvests to avoid injury, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported. According to the Chifeng's hydrological bureau, 62 percent of the city's 51 reservoirs have run dry, Xinhua said. More than 250,000 people are short on drinking water.

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My Comment: Even the Chinese press is starting to notice the impact of water shortages in the countryside, and its impact on agricultural communities.

In my own personal case I first noticed China's water problems on my first visit to the country in 1988. Arriving, I was told bluntly to not drink the water, and while touring the country I was witness to the environmental and ecological disaster of stripping trees from mountain slopes, dumping sewage (and God knows what else) into river systems, and a lack of infrastructure to accommodate China's growing cities and industrial development .... and this was in 1988.

Over the years this problem has only gotten worse .... and not surprisingly .... this ecological disaster has finally caught up to the Chinese. Will they cut back on their expanding economy .... I doubt it. But eventually .... and very soon .... tough decisions are going to have to be made.

The Coming Conflict Over The River Nile

On The Nile, Egypt Cuts Water Use As Ethiopia Dams For Power -- L.A. Times

There is a battle over the historic river. Under existing accords, Egypt has veto power over development projects, but upstream nations say they should not be bound by unfair colonial-era pacts.

Reporting from Mansoura, Egypt, and Blue Nile — On the sloping western shores of Lake Tana in central Ethiopia, where villagers gape at new tractors as if they were Ferraris and power lines pass over lean-tos lighted by candles, a poor nation's hopes hum inside a new hydroelectric plant.

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My Comment: Tens of millions of Egyptians are dependent on the river Nile for survival. The consequences of damming the Nile in places like Ethiopia and the Sudan will be .... to put it bluntly .... disastrous for this country. If you are the leader of Egypt, and the Nile becomes a trickle of what it has been since the dawn of civilization .... what will you do?

On the flip side .... the Ethiopians need the resources that the Nile can provide to help them in developing and modernizing their country. What will they do?

To me .... the answer is clear .... there is no room for compromise, a horrible situation to be in because in the end it will just become a military fight for survival.

The Coming Freshwater Crisis

Freshwater Scarcity: The Greatest Crisis Most Americans Have Never Heard Of -- Tavis Smiley, PBS

"When the well is dry, we learn the worth of water," Benjamin Franklin quipped wisely over two centuries ago, long before it seemed conceivable that freshwater could become scarce across the planet or anyone imagined the need for an Earth Day.

Today, for the first time in human history, the global well is starting to go dry -- and we are all about to learn the painful lessons of what happens when societies run short of history's most indispensable resource.

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My Comment: There is a reason why past empires established themselves beside major rivers and water supplies. No water .... no chance of having a significant population in the area.

As to the coming water crisis, it is easy to predict that this will result in mass migration and population displacement. If illegal immigration is a problem today, the future certainly holds something that is much worse.

Two Articles That Illustrate The Strategic Importance Of Water In Today's World

Photo from BBC News

As Economy Booms, China Faces Major Water Shortage -- Washington Post

BEIJING -- A decade ago, China's leaders gave the go-ahead to a colossal plan to bring more than 8 trillion gallons of water a year from the rivers of central China to the country's arid north. The project would have erected towering dams, built hundreds of miles of pipelines and tunnels, and created vast reservoirs with a price tag three times that of the giant Three Gorges Dam.

But the plan's biggest section, which was supposed to break ground this year, has run aground after a group of academics and experts voiced alarm about costs, environmental damage and earthquake dangers. Though a rare victory for ordinary citizens, the halting of that part of the project leaves behind water shortages that could cause the entire Chinese economy to founder.

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Karachi 'Water Mafia' Leaves Pakistanis Parched And Broke -- L.A. Times

Corrupt politicians allow businessmen to siphon off as much as 41% of the city's water supply and turn around and sell it at exorbitant rates to residents, generating an estimated $43 million a year.

Reporting from Karachi, Pakistan
Name a cash cow in this sprawling city of ragged slums and glass-walled office buildings and it's almost certain there's an organized crime syndicate behind it.

The illegal operations, routinely referred to as mafias, are everywhere. There's a land mafia that commandeers prime real estate, a sugar mafia that conspires to control sugar prices, and even a railway mafia that forges train tickets and pilfers locomotive parts.

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My Comment: We in the West .... in particular in my part of the world (Northeast North America) are blessed with abundant supplies of fresh water. But for many other parts of the world, access to fresh water is the number one concern for many citizens and governments. In China, polluted water was something that I was witnessed to on my first trip there in 1988. In the Indian subcontinent, pollution and a lack of proper sanitation has destroyed many major waterways for fresh water .... and with a drought underway the problem is only getting worse.

Yemen is probably the world's poster child for depleting water supplies, and many countries in the Sub Sahara are now reeling from inadequate fresh water supplies.

This is my prediction .... as these developments and trends continue, conflict and wars over water rights will only escalate into state conflicts and open warfare.

Yemen's Water Crisis A Mideast Warning

The City of Sanaa

From Terra Daily:

Sanaa may be the first capital city in the world to run out of water. If that happens, it will be a signpost to the conflicts over shrinking resources that scientists and sociologists see coming in the decades ahead.

The ancient city, which dates back to the Sabean dynasty of the 6th century B.C., is expected to run out of drinking water as early as 2025 at current consumption levels, according to the Sanaa Water Basin Management Project funded by the World Bank.

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My Comment: Too many people .... not enough water. A problem that is going to spread to more than one country in the Middle East.

Will Future Wars Be About Water?

Hustle and Flow -- Audubon Magazine

As water becomes increasingly scarce, we may have to charge for every drop.

In a now-famous interview with The New York Times in 1995, Ismail Serageldin, the World Bank’s vice president for environmentally sustainable development, said, “Many of the wars in this century were about oil, but wars of the next century will be over water.” While the situation is currently considerably less dire in the United States than in many other places around the world, an escalating fight over water in the coming years is in the making. We are “entering an era of water reallocation, when water for new uses will come from existing users who have incentives to use less,” says Robert Glennon, the Morris K. Udall professor of law and public policy at the University of Arizona, in his new book Unquenchable: America’s Water Crisis and What to Do About It. Those reallocations can take place through contentious politicking and in the courts, or, Glennon argues, more peaceably, through market forces.

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My Comment: The money quote in this essay is the following ....

“Many of the wars in this century were about oil, but wars of the next century will be over water.” While the situation is currently considerably less dire in the United States than in many other places around the world, an escalating fight over water in the coming years is in the making.

In my travels through Asia and the Middle East (for the past 20 years), I have found that water and pollution have become the two top concerns for everyone .... and it is growing every year.

I expect this trend to continue, and yes .... I do expect wars and conflicts to break out because of it. The Middle East will probably be the place for the first war over water, and it will be between Iraq and Turkey and/or Israel and its thirsty neighbors.

How The Middle East's Water Crisis Can Overshadow Every Other Crisis In The Region

The Mosul dam on the Tigris River in Iraq. Photo AFP

Turkey, Iraq And Syria In Water Crisis Summit -- CNN

ISTANBUL, Turkey (CNN) -- Turkish, Iraqi and Syrian ministers met in Ankara on Thursday to discuss water shortages in the major Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which run through all three countries.

The meeting comes amid a diplomatic spat over Iraqi accusations that Syria is harboring terrorists.

The Tigris River has plunged to record low levels, Iraqi farmers told CNN. Iraq is suffering a drought that its officials are calling a "catastrophe."

Read more ....

More News On This Water Crisis

Turkey to give Iraq, Syria more water from Tigris -- AP
Drought Withers Iraqi Farms, Food Supplies -- NPR
Turkey, Syria, Iraq discuss water resource of Euphrates, Tigris rivers -- China View
Turkey reneging on pledge to boost water supplies-Iraq -- Reuters
Turkey 'unable' to give more water to Iraq, Syria -- Syria

My Comment: Wars have been started for less. This is a long term problem that can only get worse as the Iraqi economy expands and its population grows. There are no easy solutions to this problem .... a problem that is primarily due to the construction of dams in Turkey and its own insatiable desire and need for water.