Global Bankers At Saudi Forum Say Israel-Hamas War Threatens The World Economy

 

AFP: Israel-Hamas war threatens world economy, bankers tell Saudi forum 

The war between Israel and Hamas could deal a heavy blow to the global economy, banking titans told a glitzy investment forum in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. 

The dour mood from some of the gathering's most high-profile speakers underscored how the war threatens attempts by the world's biggest oil exporter to diversify its economy away from fossil fuels. 

Hamas militants stormed into Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7 and killed at least 1,400 people, mostly civilians who were shot or burnt to death on the first day of the raid, according to Israeli officials.  

Read more ....  

Update #1: As Israel-Hamas war rages, global finance chiefs in Saudi sound gloomy note (Reuters)  

Update #2: Jamie Dimon and other top bankers visit Saudi Arabia as Israel-Hamas war rages (CNN)  

WNU Editor: There may be a major war in the Middle East but 6,000 participants from more than 90 countries have shown up in Saudi Arabia for this "Davos in the Desert" forum.

Visualizing The $105 Trillion World Economy In One Chart

Visual Capitalist: Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart 

By the end of 2023, the world economy is expected to have a gross domestic product (GDP) of $105 trillion, or $5 trillion higher than the year before, according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections from its 2023 World Economic Outlook report. 

In nominal terms, that’s a 5.3% increase in global GDP. In inflation-adjusted terms, that would be a 2.8% increase.  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: The above report says Russia's GDP will decrease by $150 billion.

130 Nations Now Support The U.S. Proposal For A Global Minimum Tax On Corporations

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference, after attending the G7 finance ministers meeting, at Winfield House in London, Britain June 5, 2021. Justin Tallis/Reuters  

CNBC: 130 nations agree to support U.S. proposal for global minimum tax on corporations 

* A group of 130 nations has agreed to a global minimum tax on corporations, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced Thursday, part of a broader agreement to overhaul international tax rules. 

* Yellen did not announce the actual rate at which the GMT would be set, but the Biden administration has pushed for at least 15%. 

* The GMT would effectively end the practice of global corporations seeking out low-tax jurisdictions to move their headquarters. 

WASHINGTON - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced Thursday that a group of 130 nations has agreed to a global minimum tax on corporations, part of a broader agreement to overhaul international tax rules. 

If widely enacted, the GMT would effectively end the practice of global corporations seeking out low-tax jurisdictions like Ireland and the British Virgin Islands to move their headquarters to, even though their customers, operations and executives are located elsewhere. 

“For decades, the United States has participated in a self-defeating international tax competition, lowering our corporate tax rates only to watch other nations lower theirs in response. The result was a global race to the bottom: Who could lower their corporate rate further and faster? No nation has won this race,” said Yellen in a statement on the accord.  

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WNU editor: Most of these countries are supporting a global tax because they are hoping to get a cut out of this tax. LOL. Good luck on that.

The Wave Of Covid-19 Bankruptcies Has Begun

A pedestrian walks by empty window displays at a Neiman Marcus location in Washington, D.C. Big-name retailers have made headlines with bankruptcy filings, but other industries are seeing large increases as well. © Matt McClain/The Washington Post 

Washington Post: The wave of covid bankruptcies has begun 

A New Albany, Ohio, music school offering piano, guitar and violin lessons racked up under nearly $1 million in loans and $35,000 in credit card debt. 

A fine dining restaurant in Providence, R.I., received more than $450,000 in federal small-business funds to help pay workers but still had to close its doors. A nonprofit overseeing the Kit Carson Home and Museum in Taos, N.M., welcomes visitors to learn about the famous frontiersman but listed just $17,000 in assets even after every bone-handled knife, buffalo hide apron and flintlock musket had been tallied. 

Nearly a year since coronavirus-related shutdowns began affecting large swaths of the American economy, more businesses are filing for bankruptcy as Chapter 11 filings were up nearly 20 percent in 2020 compared with the previous year, court records show. 

Read more .... WNU Editor: I know where I live (Montreal, Canada) the number of restaurants and retail stores that have closed for good in the past few months is jaw-dropping.

World Bank Chief Economist Warns That A Financial Crisis Will Occur If The Pandemic Continues

Business Insider: A financial crisis could emerge from the coronavirus's lingering fallout, World Bank chief economist says 

 * Achieving herd immunity and bringing the coronavirus in check won't resolve all of the pandemic's economic damage, Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank, said Tuesday. 

 * What began as a health crisis is creating "your classic balance sheet problems" and risks plunging the world into a dire financial crisis, Reinhart said on Bloomberg TV.

 * "A rebound this year still leaves per-capita income below where it was before the crisis. Calling it a recovery is misleading," she added. 

 * The pandemic's length has placed outsized strains on the balance sheets of households, businesses, and countries, and mounting debt piles risk exacerbating the problem, the economist said. 

Vaccine distribution is expected to bring an end to the coronavirus pandemic, but households and companies will still face severe debt pressures, Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank, said Tuesday. 

The pandemic is on the cusp of its one-year anniversary, and its fallout is expected to linger until well after cases tumble. What started as a health crisis is now morphing into "your classic balance sheet problems," Reinhard said. 

Those strains threaten to keep the global economy from staging a full bounce-back in the near-term.

Read more .... 

Update #1: Reinhart Frets World Faces Financial Crisis if Pandemic Lingers (Bloomberg) 

Update #2: World Bank Head Sees "Quiet" Financial Crisis Brewing As Pandemic Lingers (Zero Hedge) 

WNU Editor: She has been warning of an economic/financial crisis since October .... Top World Bank economist says coronavirus pandemic morphing into 'major economic crisis' (FOX News).

The World Economy Is Piling Record Amounts Of Debt In The Middle Of A Pandemic

Image: The World Economic Forum 

  World Economic Forum: Countries are piling on record amounts of debt amid COVID-19. Here's what that means 

 * Public debt levels and deficits have hit records during the pandemic. 

 * Many experts argue it’s a sound means to fund the recovery. 

 * Such borrowing has been further enabled and encouraged since the financial crisis due to central bank efforts. 

As public debt in the US recently hit a peak not reached since World War II, a funny thing happened: the public didn’t really seem to mind. The debt load in the US has only continued to rise, far exceeding the size of the country’s economy as measures are enacted to cushion the impact of COVID-19. 

The US is not alone – governments around the world have been borrowing heavily as they seek to counter the pandemic. While this doesn’t necessarily come as a surprise, the relatively subdued reaction among conservative experts might. 

The pandemic seems to be further reshaping how many people think about sizable public debt. Those who may have once been spooked by the concept seem to be okay with it now, if the money’s put to good use and the interest due remains relatively low. 

Read more .... 

Update: COVID-19 hit commodities hard - these 8 charts show what we can expect (World Economic Forum) 

WNU Editor: People I know and trust when it comes to money are talking more and more of a global reset. If this debt bubble trend continues, they are probably going to be right. After-all. All good things do come to an end. But for the moment everyone is happy to live in this fantasy land .... that wealth can be created by printing it.

On a side note. Looking at the above graph I am not surprised that the Russian government has stayed away from accumulating debt. When Russia's debt bubble burst in the early 1990s, the depression that ensued took over a decade to overcome. No one in Russia (myself included) want to go through that again.

For The First Time In History There Are Now More Chinese Firms On The Fortune Global 500 List Than U.S. Companies

© REUTERS / Tyrone Siu

Sputnik: China Outpaces US With Record 133 Firms on Fortune 500 List for First Time in History Amid Trade War

The listing of the world's biggest companies saw 133 Chinese firms across the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong make the roster compared with 121 US businesses. The news comes amid a major surge in foreign investment in Chinese tech firms amid the ongoing US trade war with China.

Chinese firms listed on the Fortune Global 500 have surpassed US companies for the first time in history, it was found on Monday.

Three Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) - Sinopec Group, State Grid and China National Petroleum - came in second, third and fourth, respectively, with Arkansas-based Walmart topping the list.

“Chinese companies outnumbering US ones shows that China’s economy is large enough to cause US concerns,” Zhang Lin, an independent political economist in Beijing said in a statement.

But many Chinese firms on the list were SOEs backed by the Chinese government in the world's largest market, Fortune said.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: These Chinese firms are controlled by the Chinese government, and many of them are playing an increasingly powerful role in advancing China's interests around the world. Their sheer size and wealth will guarantee that. So when you hear political leaders in the West say that China does not play a significant role in influencing their elections/policy decisions/business climate/etc. .... do not believe them. In today's global economy China has positioned itself to be everywhere. The Fortune Global 500 list is here .... Global 500 (Fortune).

IMF Issues Grim Report On The Global Economy

An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the IMG logo, is seen on March 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. Olivier Douliery

CNBC: IMF set to slash economic forecasts and warns of a crisis ‘unlike anything the world has seen’

* The IMF forecast in April a contraction of 3% for the global economy in 2020.
* It said the current crisis is “unlike anything the world has seen before.”
* The Fund noted that the services industry had been more severely impacted than manufacturing — which represents a change from previous crises, where a lack of investment hit manufacturing activity hardest.

The global economy is on track for a more significant contraction than the International Monetary Fund estimated back in April, the institution’s chief economist said Tuesday.

When European countries were in their first weeks of lockdown, the IMF said the global economy would suffer the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. At the time, it forecast a contraction by 3% in 2020.

Now, despite some economies beginning to reopen, the Fund has warned that the decline could be even worse.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The IMF is predicting doom and groom. The IEA is predicting the opposite .... Global oil demand could hit record growth rate next year, IEA warns (The Guardian). U.S. retail sales are also booming .... US retail sales in record monthly rebound (BBC). So who is right?

OECD Projects Worst Global Recession In Almost 100 Years

Business Insider: The OECD said coronavirus has triggered the worst global recession in almost 100 years - and laid out 2 scenarios for its impact on the world economy

* The OECD said COVID-19 has "triggered the most severe recession in nearly a century."
* The organization laid out two scenarios facing the global economy: one if a second wave of COVID-19 is avoided, and one where a second wave hits the global economy.
* World economic output will fall by 7.6% this year if a second wave happens, and 6% without a second wave, it said.
* GDP in the US will fall by 8.5% this year with a second wave, and 7.3% in the absence of a second wave.

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the "most severe recession in nearly a century," the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned on Wednesday as it released two scenarios for how the virus could develop and impact global markets.

The OECD said in Wednesday: "With little prospect of a vaccine becoming widely available this year, and faced with unprecedented uncertainty, the OECD has taken the unusual step of presenting two equally likely scenarios - one in which the virus is brought under control, and one in which a second global outbreak hits before the end of 2020."

Read more ....

More News On The OECD Projecting The Worst Global Recession In Almost 100 Years

Economic impact of the coronavirus crisis is ‘dire everywhere,’ OECD says -- CNBC
New outlook projects worst global recession in almost 100 years -- UPI
COVID-19 economic impact will be 'unprecedented and long-lasting', OECD warns -- Euronews
This is the worst peacetime recession in 100 years, OECD says -- CNN
Global Economy Facing Deep Recession, Long Painful Recovery: OECD -- IBTimes
Second coronavirus outbreak could trigger severe economic pain, OECD says -- FOX News
Second wave of coronavirus could cripple economic recovery, group warns -- NYPost

World Bank Says Pandemic Has Sparked The Broadest Economic Collapse Since 1870

AFP: Pandemic drives broadest economic collapse in 150 years: World Bank

Washington (AFP) - The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a "swift and massive shock" that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said Monday.

The world economy is expected to contract by 5.2 percent this year -- the worst recession in 80 years -- but the sheer number of countries suffering economic losses means the scale of the downturn is worse than any recession in 150 years, the World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

"This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges," said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.

The depth of the crisis will drive 70 to 100 million people into extreme poverty -- worse than the prior estimate of 60 million, she told reporters.

Read more ....

More News On The World Bank Saying The Pandemic Has Sparked The Broadest Economic Collapse Since 1870

Coronavirus: World Bank confirms deepest recession since World War Two -- UN News
Pandemic sparked broadest economic collapse since 1870, World Bank says -- The Hill
World Bank says the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year -- CNN
World Bank warns Covid-19 pandemic risks dramatic rise in poverty -- The Guardian
World Bank: COVID-19 to contract global economy by 5.2% this year -- Yahoo News

Here Are The Countries That Are Recovering - Reopening Quickly From The Covid-19 Pandemic

Zero Hedge: The Road To Recovery: Which Economies Are Reopening?

COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt - but, as Visual Capitalist's Iman Ghosh details below, after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better.

Today’s chart measures the extent to which 41 major economies are reopening, by plotting two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate:

1) Mobility Index
This refers to the change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline.

2) COVID-19 Recovery Rate
The number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases.

Data for the first measure comes from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which relies on aggregated, anonymous location history data from individuals. Note that China does not show up in the graphic as the government bans Google services.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A good summary on who is economically recovering quickly (and who is not).

Goldman Sachs Expects Says Global Economy Will Be four Times Worse Than The Financial Crisis, Followed By A Massive Recovery Starting In The U.S.

CNBC: Goldman says downturn will be 4 times worse than housing crisis, then an ‘unprecedented’ recovery

* The global economic hit from the coronavirus crisis will be far worse in the near term than the financial crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.
* In the U.S., second-quarter activity likely dropped 35% while unemployment could hit 15%.
* However, the recovery in the second half of the year could be stronger than anything the U.S. has seen.

The global economic hit from the coronavirus crisis will likely be four times worse than the financial crisis and the U.S. will see its highest unemployment rate since World War II, according to a Goldman Sachs forecast.

With most of the world’s developing economies on a near total shutdown to try to stop the coronavirus spread, Goldman sees a second-quarter GDP decline of 11% from a year ago and 35% from the previous quarter on an annualized basis.

In the U.S., the headline unemployment rate should hit 15% “and even this understates the severity of the situation” as many workers will be sidelined and not looking for jobs amid an anticipated reopening of the economy. That will accompany a GDP decline in the U.S. of 11% from a year ago and 34% on a quarterly basis, both numbers also considerably worse than anything seen during the financial crisis in 2008.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: It all depends on the Covid-19 coronavirus, and what will it do in the coming months. If Covid-19 quickly tapers off in the next month or two and quarantines/lock-downs end, yes, I do expect a crazy economic boom. If the Covid-19 coronavirus continues to have the impact that it has for one more year, coupled with quarantines and lock-downs continuing, we can all forget about an economic boom, we will be facing a global economic depression that will last for a few years.

Update: This is what other investors are expecting .... Dash for cash as most investors expect drawn-out recovery - BofA survey (Reuters).

IMF Expects The 2020 Global Economy To Expeirence The Worst Fallout Since The Great Depression (Update)

Small Caps: IMF expects worst economic fallout since The Great Depression

International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva has delivered a sombre message about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, warning that the IMF is expecting the worst economic fallout since The Great Depression.

However, Ms Georgieva in her video address stressed the positive, indicating the resolution with which the fund is confronting the pandemic’s effects.

“These are the times for which the IMF was created — we are here to deploy the strength of the global community, so we can help shield the most vulnerable people and revitalise the economy,” she said.

Read more ....

Update: World Bank, IMF Push to Consolidate Patchwork Approach to Coronavirus Crisis (WSJ)

WNU Editor: The money that the IMF is offering will not even make a small dent in helping these 25 countries .... IMF to provide debt relief for 25 countries to help them address pandemic (Reuters).

IMF Says Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Will Unleash The Worst Recession Since Great Depression

Reuters: IMF chief says pandemic will unleash worst recession since Great Depression

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pandemic sweeping the world will turn global economic growth “sharply negative” in 2020, triggering the worst fallout since the 1930s Great Depression, with only a partial recovery seen in 2021, the head of the International Monetary Fund said.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva painted a far bleaker picture of the social and economic impact of the new coronavirus than even a few weeks ago, noting governments had already undertaken fiscal stimulus measures of $8 trillion, but more would likely be needed.

She said the crisis would hit emerging markets and developing countries hardest of all, which would then need hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign aid.

“Just three months ago, we expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of our member countries in 2020,” she said on Thursday in remarks prepared for delivery ahead of next week’s IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.

Read more ....

More News On The IMF Saying That The Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Will Unleash The Worst Recession Since Great Depression

Coronavirus: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says -- BBC
IMF head sees worst economic downturn since Great Depression -- AP
IMF chief flags up grim global economic forecast -- The Guardian
Half a billion people could be pushed into poverty by coronavirus economic fallout, study finds -- ABC News Online
Coronavirus crisis could plunge half a billion people into poverty: Oxfam -- Reuters
Blindsided: how coronavirus felled the global economy in 100 days -- The Guardian

Does Anyone Know What Is Happening?

Due to the coronavrius outbreak, the IMF warned that global growth will dip below 2019 levels although its exact level is still difficult to predict [File: Aly Song/Reuters]

Paul Donovan, Zero Hedge: UBS: Does Anyone Know What Is Happening?

Does anyone know what is happening?

Economic data is likely to become increasingly unreliable as a result of the coronavirus lockdown. We know the global economy will be bad. We will not know, with much accuracy, just how bad.
Annualizing data is absurd in the current climate. What happens in the second quarter is not going to be repeated for the rest of the year. Time to stop annualizing numbers.
Most economic data is survey based. Industrial production, some unemployment numbers, inflation numbers, GDP and the various sentiment opinion polls need people to fill in surveys. If you are filling in survey forms in a lockdown you are likely to be an unusual person, and possibly not representative.
Social media spreads fear and affects sentiment. Sentiment affects answers to surveys. Data, like consumer price inflation, includes restaurant prices, but restaurants are closed. What happens when you survey something that is not there?
Online spending is likely to have increased in lockdowns. Online spending may stay higher after the lockdowns end. It may not be properly captured in official data.
Some data items are more reliable than others. Investors need to be careful about putting economic numbers into investment models, however. Garbage in means garbage out.

The global economy is going to have a very bad few months. Fear of the coronavirus has changed consumer behavior. Government policy aims to cut GDP growth in most major economies. But we may not really know what is actually going on in these economies. The quality of economic data is going to be affected by shutdowns. So where are the problems?

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I know the following is happening. The world economy has shut down. For the first time in history a decision has been made among almost every government in the world to close down their economy. And you can take this to the bank, major economic decisions will not be made until a vaccine is safely developed and administered, and we will not see that happening until late next year. What concerns me even more is that a coronavirus vaccine has never been developed .... this is new territory (scientifically speaking), and there is no guarantee on when it will be developed. And as for when will medicines be available to deal with this pandemic, that is also unknown.

This lack of certainty on when a vaccine will be developed and administered is devastating the economy and global supply chains. In the meantime the balance sheets of all governments and most individuals have been completely upended with this pandemic, which will mean more taxes, inflation, and economic uncertainty. And here is an easy prediction. It is going to get worse, especially if critical supply chains like food and essential services are disrupted. And as for the economy when it does re-open. Do not expect a boom. How can an economy go forward  when many people do not have money, or very little of it, to drive it forward?

2020 Is The Year That Global Markets Experienced The Most Destructive Sell-Off Since The Great Depression

The final numbers of the day are displayed above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. March 20, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo

Reuters: Graphic: Three months that shook global markets

LONDON (Reuters) - How much damage has the coronavirus and the oil price collapse inflicted on global financial markets this year? Put simply, it has probably been the most destructive sell-off since the Great Depression.

The numbers have been staggering. $15 trillion has been wiped of world stock markets .MIWD00000PUS, oil has slumped 60% as Saudi Arabia and Russia have started a price war and emerging markets like Brazil, Mexico and South Africa have seen their currencies plummet more than 20%.

Volatility and corporate borrowing market stress has spiked on worries that whole sectors could go bust, airlines .dMIWO0AL00PUS have had half their value vaporized, while cratering economies risk a new wave of government debt crises.

“It has been like a train wreck,” Chris Dyer, Director of Global Equity at Eaton Vance, said. “You could see it coming and coming and coming, but you just couldn’t stop it happening.”

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I agree with this sentence from the above Reuters report ....

.... “These are truly historical moments in the history of financial markets. 2020 will go alongside 1929, 1987 and 2008 in the text books of financial market panics,” Deutsche Bank Strategist, Jim Reid, said.

Are We Facing A Global Depression?

Politico: Fears mount of a coronavirus-induced depression

Economists increasingly warn that Washington’s current efforts won’t be enough to fight a downturn approaching the devastation seen eight decades ago.

Forecasts of doom for the American economy are quickly turning from gray to pitch black.

As Congress haggles over a multitrillion-dollar coronavirus rescue package, analysts are warning the U.S. could face a prolonged depression rather than the kind of short recession and swift bounce back that President Donald Trump and his top aides expect. And they’re raising questions about whether current government efforts to cushion the economy from the damage will be anywhere near enough.

Across Wall Street and the economic world, forecasters are quickly ramping up their predictions of massive job losses and declines in economic activity by as much as an annualized 50 percent in the second quarter of the year. They’re offering estimates unseen since the Great Depression that began in 1929 and continued for a brutal decade, reshaping governments and economies across the globe.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The Russian in me says "hope for the best, expect and prepare for the worst". I am preparing for hard times. I am resigned that this pandemic will last into next year, and I base this judgment on history. Pandemics in the past always took a minimum of a year to burn themselves out, and I do not see this current pandemic as an exception to that rule.

More Commentary On Growing Fears That The World Is Facing A Global Depression

A U.S. recession? Probably. Depression? Only if the virus is untamed -- Reuters
Virus charts bode second ‘Great Recession’ -- Asia Times
Top economists see echoes of depression in US sudden stop -- Bloomberg
Coronavirus could plunge the global economy into a 'Greater Depression,' 'Dr. Doom' economist warns -- Business Insider
Coronavirus pandemic has delivered the fastest, deepest economic shock in history -- Nouriel Roubini, The Guardian
Why a Coronavirus Depression Could Be Worse than the Great Recession -- Hunter DeRensis, National Interest

Global Recession In 2020 Now Seen As Guaranteed

A customer pushes her trolley next to empty shelves at a Sainsbury's store in Harpenden as the spread of the coronavirus disease continues, in Harpenden, Britain. REUTERS/Peter Cziborra

SCMP: Coronavirus: global recession in 2020 now seen as guaranteed as outbreak ravages Europe, US

* Hope for rapid global economic recovery has faded, with some analysts predicting the downturn may last until next year
* Escalation of containment measures in Europe and the US, along with weak Chinese economic data, are seen as tipping points in the outlook for the economy

A global economic recession is now all but guaranteed in 2020, with analysts worldwide continuing to slash their already grim forecasts as the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic outside China results in unprecedented containment measures and a rising number of businesses in danger of bankruptcy.

The moves by central banks around the world to cut their interest rates to record lows and by governments to pump huge amounts of money into their economies – including the new proposal in the United States to spend around US$1 trillion to bail out troubled businesses and provide a cash handout to every American – have come too late, according to analysts.

The question now becomes how deep the downturn will be, and how long it will last, with worst-case scenarios seeing weak growth continuing into 2021.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: It all comes down to how long will this pandemic last, and its impact on those who are most vulnerable to it. With almost every infectious disease expert now saying that this will probably last 18 months, I shudder to see how most businesses will survive. We are not facing a recession. We are facing the possibility of a 2 -3 year depression where many people will not be able to work because of the risks of being infected.

Morgan Stanley And Goldman Sachs Declare A Global Recession Is Already Underway

Daily Mail: Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin 'warns unemployment in the US could hit 20 PERCENT' for the first time since 1935: Coronavirus plunges economy into recession with a fifth of workers already losing wages and fears millions will be laid off in days

* Steven Mnuchin reportedly said on Tuesday that unemployment may reach 20%
* The Treasury secretary made the comment during a meeting with US senators
* Mnuchin reportedly said he believes economic fallout from the coronavirus is potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis
* Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs said a global recession is already underway
* A recession is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth
* New poll finds 18% of US adults have lost jobs or had hours cut due to crisis
* Trump for the first time acknowledged that the US 'maybe' faces recession
* Marriott hotel chain is beginning furloughs for tens of thousands of workers

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has reportedly warned that the US could see an unemployment rate of 20 per cent as the coronavirus plunges the economy into a recession.

On Tuesday, it was revealed that a global recession has already begun due to the spread of COVID-19 as major companies begin laying off employees worldwide and a fifth of US workers say that they have already lost wages due to the crisis.

Mnuchin reportedly made his remarks about the economy during a meeting with senators on Tuesday.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I concur with their analysis. Trillions have been lost in the stock markets. Literally every business in Asia, Europe, and the U.S./Canada is impacted. And as for unemployment rates. I cannot help but sense that this 20% rate that US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is talking about is actually a low-ball number. And then there is the nightmare scenario where the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to spread in regions like Latin America, Africa, and the warzones of the Middle East. In that case the disease will always be with us until a safe vaccine has been developed to counter this deadly disease, a frightening prospect since a safe vaccine is projected to be only available by the middle of next year. If that becomes the case, this will not be a recession, it will be a depression that will take a long time for the global economy to bounce back.

Update: I have a lot of friends who own their own business in Montreal. When I think about their current situation, I cannot help but feel that half will be forced to close their doors permanently within three to four months.

More News On Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Declaring A Global Recession Is Already Underway

Morgan Stanley says a global recession in 2020 is now the firm’s ‘base case’ -- CNBC
US entering coronavirus recession: S&P Global -- The Hill
Coronavirus has plunged the world into a recession, according to S&P -- CNN
Morgan Stanley officially says a global recession is now its base case as the coronavirus outbreak escalates -- Business Insider

Eight Key Maps And Charts That Illustrate The Impact Of The Coronavirus On The World Economy

BBC: Coronavirus: Eight charts on how it has shaken economies

The coronavirus outbreak, which originated in China, has infected tens of thousands of people. Its spread has left businesses around the world counting costs.

Here are eight key maps and charts to help you understand the impact seen on different economies and industries so far.

Read more ....

WNUU editor: A must read for those who follow global economics.