J. Michael Cole, The National Interest: A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Happens? Who Wins?
We take a look.
A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Happens? Who Wins?
Key point: "In the end, absent a U.S. and Japanese commitment to intervene in the early stages of an attempted PLA invasion of Taiwan, there is only a slim likelihood that the Taiwanese military would be able to “defeat” its opponent in the conventional sense of the term."
A consensus seems to have developed among a large number of defense analysts in recent years arguing that despite the balance of power having shifted in China’s favor, Beijing has no intention to use its military to invade Taiwan and thus resolve the Taiwan “question” once and for all. Doing so would be too costly, some argue, while others contend that Beijing can accomplish unification by creating enough economic dependence and incentives to convince Taiwanese over time of the “inevitability” of a “reunited” China.
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WNU Editor: There is no guarantee that China will win. There is a precedent of a smaller power facing China and winning on the battlefield, and that occurred in the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979.
7 comments:
China in Taiwan is a lethal blow to USA security guarantees to Japan or any other nation. Taiwan gives China a place to house hundreds of long range missiles, jets; harbors for a large fleet and amphibious forces for conquering more territory. Guaranteed if China moves on Taiwan, the USA fights.
Anon (1rst),
I strongly agree with you. May be China is hesitating because they know what would be the reaction of America.
The thing about Taiwan is that it is an Island. A very fortified Island with a massive reserve of trained former conscripts.
The problem the Chinese have is that it is very hard to land troops in hostile territory. In fact it is the hardest task in the military world. Meanwhile all the Taiwanese would have to do to get crushing force advantage in an area is move across a high density infrastructure island.
Yes they would be under intermittent air assault, but China still doesn't have enough precision munitions to do sustained high altitude bombing against ground forces. That is where China runs into another problem, Taiwan has a lot of MANPADs. They aren't enough to stop high altitude operations, but they deter low altitude operations relatively well.
Another problem for China are those small islands. Comparatively easy to conquer it seems, and quite vulnerable. Why would the Taiwanese base so much of their professional military on them? To attrit Chinese Marine numbers in an effort to slow down the timetable for the invasion of the big island. Thus giving big island Taiwan more time to retrain conscripts and prepare more defenses.
Meanwhile, While I have touched on the the logistical problem, let me hammer on it some more.
wow, China has a big theoretical troop capacity on its transports. Too bad that it would be troops with absolutely no supplies on them. I am sure the defenders would appreciate that. If China actually wants to have soldiers that can fight for a day, then you can cut that number by 60% on the first day alone, with a high percentage supplies having to be delivered every day as landed troop numbers increase. These landing would also have little to no armor presence with them, so there goes most of your direct fire support.
Over time, China would be able to convert civilian ships into supply ships, they have laws in place to press gang them into service after all. However, that would again take time. At least a couple of months to have a significant number.
lets look at the defenses the PLA would be charging into. First, they would have to get by the mines. Not the worst thing in the world. It does slow down operations and lets the Taiwanese know where the Chinese are going to be focusing.
Then you have a popup missile boat threat that would be able to hide until landing operations begin. They will then take potshots at approaching logistics ships. Again, not the biggest problem in the world, but potentially a dangerous issue.
Then you have the big three, Tube artillery, Anti-ship missiles, and ATGMs. The Taiwanese have massive amounts of all of these things. Number large enough that attrition with airstrikes and rocket fire won't be able to work.
Conventional artillery is good not only for bombarding foothold but also for damaging and killing larger landing ships.
Anti-ship missile would largely be used against mother-ships and logistics ships. Although the occasional marauding frigate might also be on the menu.
finally, the humble ATGM. Not only for tanks, though any that land would be chewed up quickly by them. No, most of these ATGMs would be used to sink any landing craft that dare come into range.
This is all before a person considers the overwhelming local force advantage that the Taiwanese would have, not only in manpower but also tanks and other fire support.
Moving on, A blockade could work, if given several years. Taiwan does grow a fairly significant amount of its own food. The Island nation also has a quite large amount of industry. Enough that they would be able to manufacture some of the basics for a while. even under relatively heavy military pressure.
All of this is to say that China would not have a quick victory over Taiwan. And as previous comments have suggested, The US would not stay out of the war.
Bottom line:
Yes, China could do a lot of quick damage to Taiwan. But they could not win quickly enough to keep the US from intervening.
to the island commentator. .Taiwan is extremely dependent on oil. Being an island it gets most of its oil through two ports. Reserves won't last a week. But china's problem is that they don't want to not can be seen killing their distant relatives. If China were to attack, it's already terrible image in the world would suffer extremely. Keep in mind that China -together with north Korea - is the least liked country - to put it mildly - in the south and east Asia region. Their popularity is as high as a steaming pile of poo on fire at your doorstep after they've beaten and threatened and tortured many in Asia. A war would be to the loss of China. No one wants to live under their rule after they witnessed what they have done to Hongkongese
"Taiwan is extremely dependent on oil"
So is China. You cut oil being shipped to China in the Indian Ocean and then watch the New Chairman Mao (Xi) sob.
In the short term, Taiwan could mount an effective defense. Few things are as hard as successfully mounting an opposed amphibious landing. Long term though, Taiwan would need to keep its sea lanes open for trade and new supplies, and that would be much harder. Taiwan also needs some kind of deterrent that could take the war to China and make China pay for any damage to the island. Otherwise the Chinese could simply grind out a long blockade and aerial attacks over Taiwan with little domestic cost. Taiwan needs to be able to take the war to China.
Certainly Taiwan might be rescued by US (and possibly Japanese along with the US) intervention, but they would be foolish to rely on that long term. A US intervention would risk a great power war, and unlike during the Cold War, there is not a sense in the American population that the US should have one to defend another country. They need to establish their own deterrent as long term the American people (as opposed to the government) desire to intervene will decline. The people will no doubt be sympathetic to Taiwan, but the population has not been conditioned to mentally prepare for a great power war.
Taiwan does have one useful asset they can employ if China invades. They could immediately proclaim independence and expect multiple countries to recognize it as a result of the crisis. If China fails to succeed militarily to seize the island, Beijing would suffer a major diplomatic loss it could not recover from. However, for that to truly last, Taiwan would need to be able to keep its sea lanes open from a Chinese blockade that could last years - it needs to be able to effectively assert their own sovereignty.
Chris
Yes you are right. It boils down to political will and imaginative military thinking by Taiwan and the US.
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