Thursday, January 24, 2008

How China Will Fight The U.S. -- Dangerous Thinking From Chinese Military Planners

The US Air Force Aimpoints magazine describes how they would try to take out American forces in the region. The outlines of a hypothetical 21st century Pearl Harbor would look like this, according to Roger Cliff, a former Defense Department strategist and China military specialist.

Throw the first punch and hit hard. “Future conflicts are likely to be short, intense affairs that might consist of a single campaign,” Cliff said. “They’re thinking about ways to get the drop on us. ...

Striking U.S. air bases — specifically command-and-control facilities, aircraft hangars and surface-to-air missile launchers — would be China’s first priority if a conflict arose, according to Rand’s report.

U.S. facilities in South Korea and Japan, even far-south Okinawa, sit within what Rand calls the “Dragon’s Lair”: a swath of land and sea along China’s coast. This is an area reachable by cruise missiles, jet-borne precision bombs and local covert operatives.

China is designing ground-launched cruise missiles capable of nailing targets more than 900 miles away — well within striking range of South Korea and much of Japan, according to the report. Cruise missiles able to reach Okinawa — home to Kadena Air Base — are in development.

The Chinese would first launch “concentrated and unexpected” attacks ... Chinese fighter jets would scramble to intercept aerial refueling tankers and cargo planes sent to shuttle in fuel, munitions, supplies or troops. High-explosive cluster bombs would target pilot quarters and other personnel buildings.

(Hat Tip To The Belmont Club)

My Comment: The crux of the article is that Chinese military planners believe that a short military campaign that would cost numerous American lives will result with the U.S. then suing for peace.

Personally, I always find it amazing how governments are always interpreting American disagreements and differences as being weak and unwilling to fight the big fight....and as result start to pursue policies with this belief. The historical reality has always been different.

Grenada 1983
Air Strikes on Libya 1986
Panama 1989
The First Gulf War 1991
Kosovo And The Serb Air Campaign 1999
Afghanistan 2001
Iraq Invasion 2003

The above is just a short list of direct and sustained U.S. military involvement that has cost thousands of lives and multi-billions of dollars. While there has always been opposition to these campaigns, the fact is that these campaigns still went forward when it was deemed to be in America's interest and/or the right and moral thing to do.

Chinese military and political planners must realize that Asia is in America's interest, any idea otherwise is foolish and a prescription for disaster.

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