From Der Spiegel:Georgia's march into South Ossetia has prompted the Abkhazia to begin preparing for war as well. Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba told SPIEGEL ONLINE that his province might open up a second front.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: How is Abkhazia reacting to the events in South Ossetia?
Shamba: We have a deal with South Ossetia on how we will deal with crisis situations. And we are now planning on implementing it. Our security council met all night and ordered our army to deploy this morning to the Georgian border.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will a second front now be opened in Abkhazia?
Shamba: That depends on how the situation in South Ossetia develops. We understand very well that we Abkhazians are next in line after South Ossetia. If the situation doesn't stabilize again, then we will have to open a second front.
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My Comment: By invading South Ossetia Georgia has crossed a certain line that has now stirred panic in a number of small, autonomous and independent states. Abkhazia is one of them.
The destruction of South Ossetia by Georgian and Russian forces will now push regions like Abkhazia into the arms of Russia for security and diplomatic recognition. Security is the number one issue in this part of the world. The massacre that occurred by Chechen Islamic extremists at Beslan in 2004 is still fresh in every person's mind. The destruction and ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia will just reinforce these fears.
I do not expect Abkhazia to start a second front. But I do expect the leadership of this small region to go to Russia for military and police protection, which they will receive. Will Georgia retaliate .... we will find out very soon.
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