Ukraine And Russian Relations -- The Next Hot Spot

A man holding a Russian flag speaks with a girl wearing a telnyashka, a traditional navy sailor's striped vest, under her jacket during a naval parade to mark the 225th anniversary of Russian navy's Black Sea fleet at the Crimean Peninsula port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, Sunday, May 11, 2008, with the Russian Smetlivy destroyer in the background.

Ukraine Blockade Threat Risks Escalating Conflict

Ukraine threatened to blockade the Russian Black Sea Fleet yesterday in an act of solidarity with Georgia that risked escalating the conflict.

After flying to Tbilisi to assure Georgians of his country’s support, President Yushchenko signed an order imposing tough restrictions on the Russian fleet, which is based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. Mr Yushchenko’s decree instructs Russia to give 72 hours’ notice of any movement of ships, aircraft or personnel in Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities were given the power to alter those plans.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had already warned Russia that it will bar ships from returning to Sevastopol if they take part in military action against Georgia. Moscow responded furiously, accusing Ukraine of a “serious new antiRussian step”.

Read more ....

More News On Ukrainian/Russian Relations

Ukraine snubs Moscow on port -- Financial Times
Ukraine imposes restrictions on Russian navy -- The Telegraph
Russian Condemns Ukraine Move On Black Sea Fleet - Ministry -- Nasdaq
Ukraine cancels missile warning agreement with Russia -- RBC News
Ukraine insists Russia informs it of shipping movements -- Calcutta News
Russia, Ukraine tensions rise -- ABC.net (Australia)
Russia May Focus on Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Georgia (Update5) -- Bloomberg

My Comment: My father was born and brought up in the Ukraine with Russian parents. I was suppose to be in Ukraine/Russia this month visiting relatives, but business considerations have made me stay here. So .... I do have a vested interest on what is happening there.

Ukrainian / Russian relations have been strained since Ukrainian nationalists tool over the government a few years ago. Because of Ukraine's energy dependence on Russia, and Russia's dependence on Ukraine's key ports for its navy, an uneasy but dependent relationship has existed. Ukraine also has a sizable Russian population in the eastern part of the country that has been seeking greater autonomy and closer ties to Russia. The Crimean Peninsula and port of Sevastopol is over 90% Russian .... so one can imagine the tension that exists here.

The use of Ukrainian ports by the Russian Black Sea fleet is now the battleground for Ukrainian nationalists and those who oppose their policies. On the one hand The Ukraine Government wants to prohibit Russian ships from using their ports, on the other hand the people who live there (who are mostly Russian) want closer ties to Russia and want the Russian ships to use the port. The conflict in Georgia has only increased these differences.

Because Ukraine has Europe's second largest army, I doubt very much that the Russian Army will invade the country as some pundits are now speculating. The bloodbath that will ensue will set back both Russia and the Ukraine for decades, and everyone knows that. Instead, expect Russia to squeeze Ukraine economically via through energy supply, and to assist Ukrainian provinces with large Russian populations to be in open revolt. These are the levers that Russia is going to use to pressure Ukraine to be compliant to Russia's strategic interests (i.e. do not enter NATO, and to permit the use of Ukrainian military facilities such as ports).

I have high expectations that these "discussions" are going to be very heated in the next few months.