As Tensions With Russia Escalates, Ukraine Puts Its Military Forces At Combat Alert

© Mikhail Palinchak / Ukrainian Presidential Press Service / Reuters

RFE: Poroshenko Puts Troops In Eastern Ukraine On Highest Alert

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he has instructed all military units near Russian-occupied Crimea and in the easterly Donbas region to be at the highest level of combat readiness, following Russian allegations of a Ukrainian incursion into Crimea.

Also on August 11, the spokesman for Ukraine's General Staff told Reuters that Ukraine had been holding scheduled military exercises in southern Ukraine since August 10.

The statements come as Kyiv says Russia has amassed more troops in recent days equipped with more modern equipment on Ukraine's border with Russian-annexed Crimea

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More News On Ukraine Putting Its Military Forces At Combat Alert

Poroshenko puts troops on high alert in response to Russia's Crimea attack allegations -- Ukraine Today
Ukraine troops near Crimea on combat alert as tensions with Putin escalate -- FOX News/AP
Ukrainian president orders forces on border with Crimea and eastern Ukraine on highest alert -- RT
Poroshenko Orders Highest Combat Readiness Near Crimea, in Donbass -- Sputnik
Ukraine puts troops on combat alert as tensions with Russia spiral -- The Telegraph
Fears Mount of Full-scale Ukraine-Russia Clash -- VOA
Ukraine has enough military power to defend itself: General Staff spokesman -- Reuters

Moscow Flexes Muscle In Ukraine

From The Washington Times:

Arms sales accusations, passports seen as moves to destabilize tilt toward West

KIEV — Armed with petrodollars and success in restoring control over two enclaves in the Caucasus, Russia is increasing political pressure on Ukraine and trying to dampen its aspirations for NATO membership and closer ties with the West.

In recent months, the Moscow government has accused Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko of approving arms sales to Georgia.

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Russian Ukraine Relations Hitting A Downturn

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (R) exchange documents with his Ukrainian counterpart Yulia Tymoshenko during a signing ceremony in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow October 2, 2008. Russia and Ukraine agreed on Thursday to set a step-by-step, three-year period for Ukraine's transition to purchases of Russian natural gas at market prices, Tymoshenko said. (Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters)

Putin: Ukraine Gave Military Aid To Georgia In War With Russia -- Christian Science Monitor

The Russian prime minister called Ukraine's involvement a 'crime,' but still agrees to a gas contract with Kiev.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin charged Ukraine with supplying arms and manpower to Georgia during its recent war with Russia, and said if Ukraine's involvement was proven, it would be a "crime."

Russian news and information agency RIA Novosti reports that Mr. Putin made the accusation Thursday during a meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to sign a new contract on Russian natural gas exports to Ukraine.

"I don't think there is a graver crime than supplying arms to a conflict zone," Putin told his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Tymoshenko, during their meeting at the Russian premier's residence near Moscow.

He also said that he regretted "that Ukraine thought it acceptable to supply weapons to the conflict zone."

Putin also said Moscow had evidence proving that Ukrainian military experts were present in the conflict zone during the five-day war that began when Georgian forces attacked breakaway South Ossetia.

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My Comment: Russia is mad at the Ukrainian Government for supporting Georgia in the last war .... but they still sign a gas agreement. OK .....

Ukraine-Russia Tensions Rise In Crimea

A World War II monument overlooks Sevastopol Bay.
Many in Crimea consider themselves Russian.

From The L.A. Times:

Residents of Sevastopol and the rest of the Crimean Peninsula have close ties to Moscow, and analysts say Ukraine could break apart if leaders push Russia away.

SEVASTOPOL, UKRAINE -- Skimming the Black Sea aboard a military motorboat, Russian navy spokesman Igor Dygalo turned to an entourage of television cameras. "The dirty ones, those are the Ukrainian ships," he said with a light smirk. "The clean ones are Russian."

Against a backdrop of simmering tensions, Dygalo led journalists on an unusual wide-ranging visit to Russia's Black Sea Fleet this month, complete with unprecedented access to the flagship Moskva, a guided missile cruiser.

The public relations tour came just as the strategically crucial Russian base here finds itself at the epicenter of an escalating political clash.

Alarmed by Russia's recent war in Georgia, the Ukrainian government has imposed new restrictions on the Russian ships' movements, and suggested raising the rent for the fleet.

The Ukrainian president has called the surrounding Crimean Peninsula -- historically a part of Russia and still home to a majority Russian population -- the most dangerous spot in the country because of separatist sentiment.

Russia has responded with icy vows to beef up its military forces in the Black Sea, eagerly showing off to reporters the firepower aboard vessels that were used to blockade Georgia -- and to remind the world of the deep Russian roots in this restive Ukrainian region.

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My Comment: My father was born in the eastern part of the Ukraine. I still have many relatives, cousins, aunts, uncles, etc... living there. The attachment to Russia in this part of the country is very strong, and is getting stronger as discrimination and anti-Russian policies from the Ukraine Government on Russian nationals continues.

I can easily predict that separatist efforts to join Russia will increase with time .... and there is very little that the Ukraine Government can do. The ramifications of a break-up of the Ukraine and its geopolitical implications has yet to be analyzed .... someone in a think tank or main stream media outlet should take the time to figure this out because it will "the news" in a few years.

Ukraine Makes Urgent Request For NATO Membership

Russia's Black Fleet

We Will Not Be The Next On Russia's Hitlist,
Vows Defiant Ukraine -- Times Online

The invasion of Georgia means that Nato must quickly expand eastwards, the Ukrainian President tells The Times

Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukrainian President, was in a fierce and defiant mood yesterday as he urged Nato to respond to the Russian invasion of Georgia by moving quickly to expand the frontiers of the alliance eastwards.

In an exclusive interview with The Times Mr Yushchenko asserted that the fundamentals of international politics had changed. Ukraine had to do everything in its power to ensure it was not going to be next on the Kremlin hitlist.

“It is the first time in Europe since the Cold War that a foreign army has entered the territory of a sovereign state without any internationally accepted legal basis,” he said.

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More News On The Ukraine

Interview with Ukrainian President Yushchenko -- Times Online
Ukraine fears it may be the next target for Russia -- Reuters
Ukraine leaders divided over Russian threat -- Telegraph
Nervous neighbours -- Economist
Russia's neighbours go their own way -- BBC News
Ukraine: Russians at the gates again -- National Post
Yushchenko: Georgia conflict shows Kiev needs NATO -- International Herald Tribune
Military in poor shape -- Kyiv Post
First Russian navy ship returns to base -- News.com.au
In Ukraine, a pocket of Russia cheers on the troops -- Reuters
Georgia conflict: Protests greet return of Russian navy to Ukraine port -- The Telegraph
Activists in Ukraine's Crimea ask Russia to reclaim territory -- RIA Novosti
Ukraine dismisses fears of Crimea separatist crisis -- Washington Post

My Comment: Ukrainian nationalism is now rearing it's ugly head.

Ukraine / Russian Relations -- Raising Tensions

Ukraine Offers Satellite Defence Co-Operation
With Europe And US -- The Telegraph

Ukraine inflamed mounting East-West tensions yesterday by offering up a Soviet-built satellite facility as part of the European missile defence system.

The proposal, made amid growing outrage among Russia's neighbours over its military campaign in Georgia, could see Ukraine added to Moscow's nuclear hitlist. A Russian general declared Poland a target for its arsenal after Warsaw signed a deal with Washington to host interceptor missiles for America's anti-nuclear shield.

The move came as the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, signed a cease-fire deal that sets the stage for a Russian troop withdrawal after more than a week of warfare with its neighbour Georgia.

The deal calls for both Russian and Georgian forces to pull back to positions they held before fighting erupted on August 8. As of last night, though, there was little apparent evidence of a Russian pull-out from the Georgian town of Gori, which Russian tanks and troops took last weekend. Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, insisted a broader withdrawal would be contingent on further security measures.

Just hours before Mr Medvedev put his signature to the ceasefire deal, Russian forces blew up a Georgian railway bridge on the main line west of the capital, Tbilisi, an act that critics interpreted as a malacious attempt to cripple the country's infrastructure. Moscow at first issued a denial, but television footage shot by the Reuters news agency clearly showed the bridge's twisted remains.

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More News On Ukraine / Russian Relations

Ukraine offers West radar warning -- BBC News
Ukraine ready to join the missile shield -- The Australian
Ukraine offers missile warning system to Europe -- ABC News.net (Australia)
In Ukraine, Fear of Being a Resurgent Russia’s Next Target -- New York Times

My Comment: The bases that the Ukrainians want to offer have recently been abandoned by Russia due to technical difficulties. The Ukrainians intent is to show to the Russians that they are not needed, and to aggravate existing tensions even more. In this regard, the Ukrainians are succeeding.

Blowback Against Russia's invasion of Georgia is now starting. First it was Poland agreeing with the installation of a radar system and missile interceptors. Now it is the Ukraine. Next it will be the Baltics or a Central Asian state.

Ukraine And Russian Relations -- The Next Hot Spot

A man holding a Russian flag speaks with a girl wearing a telnyashka, a traditional navy sailor's striped vest, under her jacket during a naval parade to mark the 225th anniversary of Russian navy's Black Sea fleet at the Crimean Peninsula port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, Sunday, May 11, 2008, with the Russian Smetlivy destroyer in the background.

Ukraine Blockade Threat Risks Escalating Conflict

Ukraine threatened to blockade the Russian Black Sea Fleet yesterday in an act of solidarity with Georgia that risked escalating the conflict.

After flying to Tbilisi to assure Georgians of his country’s support, President Yushchenko signed an order imposing tough restrictions on the Russian fleet, which is based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. Mr Yushchenko’s decree instructs Russia to give 72 hours’ notice of any movement of ships, aircraft or personnel in Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities were given the power to alter those plans.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had already warned Russia that it will bar ships from returning to Sevastopol if they take part in military action against Georgia. Moscow responded furiously, accusing Ukraine of a “serious new antiRussian step”.

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More News On Ukrainian/Russian Relations

Ukraine snubs Moscow on port -- Financial Times
Ukraine imposes restrictions on Russian navy -- The Telegraph
Russian Condemns Ukraine Move On Black Sea Fleet - Ministry -- Nasdaq
Ukraine cancels missile warning agreement with Russia -- RBC News
Ukraine insists Russia informs it of shipping movements -- Calcutta News
Russia, Ukraine tensions rise -- ABC.net (Australia)
Russia May Focus on Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Georgia (Update5) -- Bloomberg

My Comment: My father was born and brought up in the Ukraine with Russian parents. I was suppose to be in Ukraine/Russia this month visiting relatives, but business considerations have made me stay here. So .... I do have a vested interest on what is happening there.

Ukrainian / Russian relations have been strained since Ukrainian nationalists tool over the government a few years ago. Because of Ukraine's energy dependence on Russia, and Russia's dependence on Ukraine's key ports for its navy, an uneasy but dependent relationship has existed. Ukraine also has a sizable Russian population in the eastern part of the country that has been seeking greater autonomy and closer ties to Russia. The Crimean Peninsula and port of Sevastopol is over 90% Russian .... so one can imagine the tension that exists here.

The use of Ukrainian ports by the Russian Black Sea fleet is now the battleground for Ukrainian nationalists and those who oppose their policies. On the one hand The Ukraine Government wants to prohibit Russian ships from using their ports, on the other hand the people who live there (who are mostly Russian) want closer ties to Russia and want the Russian ships to use the port. The conflict in Georgia has only increased these differences.

Because Ukraine has Europe's second largest army, I doubt very much that the Russian Army will invade the country as some pundits are now speculating. The bloodbath that will ensue will set back both Russia and the Ukraine for decades, and everyone knows that. Instead, expect Russia to squeeze Ukraine economically via through energy supply, and to assist Ukrainian provinces with large Russian populations to be in open revolt. These are the levers that Russia is going to use to pressure Ukraine to be compliant to Russia's strategic interests (i.e. do not enter NATO, and to permit the use of Ukrainian military facilities such as ports).

I have high expectations that these "discussions" are going to be very heated in the next few months.