Assessing Iraq

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U.S. soldiers run to a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter during extraction from Operation Marathon in Tikrit, Iraq, Oct. 6, 2008. The soldiers are assigned to the 101st Airborne Division's Company B, 1st Special Troops Battalion, 1st Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Army photo by Sgt. 1st Class Kevin Doheny

US More Cautious In Iraq Appraisals
-- Christian Science Monitor

One key reason: uncertainty about what upcoming provincial elections will bring.

Washington - About the time a new American president is sworn into office in January, Iraq could be holding its first elections in more than three years – elections that could either cement stability gains there or reignite sectarian tensions.

Uncertainty about what those provincial elections will bring is one reason US officials have lately been so cautious about their assessments of Iraq's future, despite six months of improved security and other positive signs there.

"There are a lot of trepidations about these [provincial] elections because there's so much potential for conflict, especially for the unappeased Sunnis to look at the results and erupt with a 'we was robbed' response," says Wayne White, a former State Department Iraq expert.

The Sunnis, who controlled Iraq under the regime of Saddam Hussein, are already unhappy with the way they are treated by the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, he adds, especially concerning what they see as their underrepresentation in the new Iraqi security forces.

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My Comment: It is hard to see Iraq falling back into a sectarian civil war. Many of the protaganists who wanted a sectarian war are now dead, and for those who have survived .... they must be sick of war. The priority is (now) to have peace and to make money. There is too much to lose from a new Iraq civil war.

But I have to agree with one assessment .... if the elections next year are abused in favour of one ethnic group, the possibility of renewed conflict will increase exponentially.