Saturday, December 26, 2009
Is There A Chinese Naval/Military Threat?
From The Strategy Page:
The U.S. Navy is looking for a sufficiently impressive foe to help scare more money out of Congress. The Chinese Navy (or, more correctly, the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army Navy) is now the favorites candidate, for navy and defense industry analysts, to become the new Big Bad. Just how dangerous are these Chinese sailors and their ships? It turns out that, on closer inspection, not very.
This is the sort of thing that what went on during the Cold War. Russian military prowess was hyped by American the military, and their defense suppliers, to justify further increases in defense spending. When the Cold War ended, it was revealed how the Russian military, and defense manufacturers, plaid the same game. It also revealed that Russian military capabilities were far less than the hype indicated.
Read more ....
My Comment: The key sentence in this post is the following ....
China has a lot of domestic problems to worry about, which is apparently one reason the government isn't willing to give a lot of money to the military.
This is an observation that I am in total agreement with. From the Western press, we are told that China is an emerging and growing economic/political/military power .... but what is not shown to us is the hardship, massive poverty, and deep resentment among many in the interior of the country to the reforms and developments that have led China to where it is today.
But the Chinese are not deluded by Western media reports. They are more focused on what they must do to address the economic disparities that exist within their own country .... a focus that I predict will take all of their energies and efforts for the next 20 - 30 years. As for the Chinese military, their growth is going to be based on what their economic and social policies will tell them is possible .... not on what their Generals would like to see.
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2 comments:
I think the US is facing the same situation Wilhelmine Germany did before the Great War. China is certainly a threat- I live in China and am shown by students articles published in state newspapers about its intentions- but a long-term one. However, Susan Shirk puts it clearly in a chapter in her book "Fragile Superpower" outlining what could happen if a Taiwanese plane shoots down a Chinese one, and the state has to react to public bellicosity to keep power. The problem is, as China continues to expand and the US decline, the latter may not be in a position to do anything when required. We see that now as it shows its impotence is being able to provide an leverage at Copenhagen or vis a vis DPRK. And as Afghanistan shows, the US hardly has any allies left to provide back-up.
Perception is the main thing at the moment- even if China's intentions in building its aircraft carriers are 'peaceful', tell that to the Japanese who are increasingly keen to rewrite those clauses in its constitution. Everywhere you go in Asia, the view is that America was the power but is now sailing off into the sunset whilst China has always been here and is returning to its former dominance.
Thank you Keir for your comment.
I agree with your argument that the perception in Asia is that the U.S. is a declining power, and that China is on the rise. But I have also lived in China, first starting in 1988. Since then, business interests have resulted in my visiting China once every year or two. During this time I have been lucky to see the growth of China's economy, society, and the military .... both the good and the bad.
But to reach the same level of U.S. military strength and power is going to take the Chinese a very very long time. During this interval of growth, I expect the other powers in Asia (from India to Japan) to strike a balance to offset any military perception of China being the dominant power on the Asian continent. I would also throw in Russia as being a player to offset any Chinese dominance.
As for the U.S. .... I expect them to be stuck in Guam till the next century .... watching everything but not getting actively involved.
On a side note, your observation of Taiwan shooting down a Chinese airplane is a good one. I doubt that it would happen .... but still .... in a world of what ifs .... we must be ready for any eventuality, and your viewpoint is very valid.
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