Obama's Afghan Surge: A Long War With An Uncertain Outcome

U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaks with American and French troops assigned to Task Force Lafayette during a visit to Forward Operating Base Morales Frazier, Afghanistan, on his annual USO holiday tour, Dec. 15, 2009. Along with Mullen, his wife Deborah welcomed tennis star Anna Kournikova, comedian Dave Attell, tennis coach Nick Bollettieri and musician Billy Ray Cyrus on the tour to visit troops in Afghanistan, Iraq and Germany. DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Chad J. McNeeley

From Time Magazine:

The week spent on Capitol Hill by Administration officials explaining President Obama's Afghan surge has produced much predictable politicking. Republicans tried in vain to coax General Stanley McChrystal into admitting their claim that Obama had denied him the resources he needs to win, and Democrats tried in vain to prod Kabul Ambassador Karl Eikenberry to reiterate his argument against a troop surge. Everyone stayed on message, but in explaining how the strategy might work, Generals McChrystal and David Petraeus made clear that U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan is not likely to end anytime soon or produce a "victory" in the sense that Americans have used the term since World War II.

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My Comment: Time Magazine writes that this is "a long war with an uncertain outcome" .... I disagree. This war has a very certain outcome, and President Obama has already painted it.

In his speech at West Point, coupled with his interview at the White House this past weekend with Oprah and with 60 minutes, President Obama has clearly indicated that if the Afghan strategy does not work within a year, he will then explore and adopt a different strategy.

What is that "different" strategy? From my viewpoint, his strategy is a strategy to retreat.

He has positioned himself to put the blame on the Government of Afghanistan (because of corruption), and on his commanders who devised the strategy for Afghanistan. Talk from senior commanders that U.S. forces will stay a long time in Afghanistan is just that .... talk. President Obama is the boss, and it is his comments and opinions that matter the most.

What are those opinions .... I believe him when he says that this has been his most difficult decision in his Presidency. He does not want to do it ... but he did because he understand the political consequences if he did not. But by implementing this decision, he has also positioned himself for a way out for doing what his instincts have been telling him that he should do .... which is to eventually sign the order that will withdraw US forces from the Afghan war theater .... an order that I predict he will make at the end of 2011.

The Taliban and their Islamic allies know this .... they are now positioning themselves for a tough 18 months, but they now know that if they can persevere for the next 2 years, victory will be theirs .... and they are right.