What Is The Plan When U.S. And Allied Forces Leave Afghanistan?

Image: Flickr / U.S. Department of Defense

Jim Cook, National Interest: The Aftermath Plan for Afghanistan

Afghan government officials are understandably wary of the Doha Agreement’s requirement for the removal of all U.S. and coalition forces from the country. Their skepticism should be viewed within the context of the tragic events following the withdrawal of Soviet Union forces in Afghanistan in 1989, including the brutal civil war that eventually brought the Taliban to power in 1996.

It is no secret that President Donald Trump never fully embraced the ongoing war in Afghanistan. He often complains that the military is acting more “as a police force” than warfighters and except at the beginning, “we never really fought to win.” While such statements are emotive and controversial, they also reflect a shared frustration with “forever wars” by the public and veterans. After nineteen years of conflict, Trump argues that he is not acting impulsively in expressing his desire to “bring our soldiers back home” from Afghanistan as soon as possible.

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WNU Editor: If there is a plan, I have yet to see and read it. But if I was to formulate a plan, I would continue training and supporting the Afghan military, and I would definitely have a plan to go back if everything goes south.

The Peace Process Between The Afghan Government And The Taliban Is Crumbling

Emma Graham-Harrison and Akhtar Mohammad Makoii in Herat, The Guardian: Hopes for peace appear to be slipping away in Afghanistan

Peace process between the government and Taliban was crumbling before talks began.

In the wake of a devastating attack in Kabul on Tuesday on a maternity unit that saw gunmen shoot women in labour, new mothers and their newborn babies, hopes of a peace process for Afghanistan appear to be slipping away as both the government and Taliban ramp up military operations.

The Taliban on Thursday attacked a city in Afghanistan’s east, killing five civilians and at least one soldier, and injuring dozens more with a truck bomb. The bomber had been targeting an army base in Gardez, but the explosives detonated before he reached it, leaving a too-familiar tangle of rubble and bodies.

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WNU Editor: As long as there are lunatics who receive support for doing this, there will never be peace in Afghanistan .... 'They came to kill the mothers': Shock, blame swirl after Afghan hospital attack (NBC).

This Is What Would Happen If The U.S. Withdraws From Afghanistan

A Taliban delegation at peace talks in Moscow, Russia, May 2019 Evgenia Novozhenina / Reuters

Carter Malkasian, Foreign Affairs: What a Withdrawal From Afghanistan Would Look Like

Learning to Live With Taliban Rule.

Over the past two years, a bipartisan consensus has emerged that the United States should leave Afghanistan. This summer, President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that he wanted out. So did the Democratic presidential candidates. During a September debate, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren promised to bring troops home without any deal with the Taliban, and former Vice President Joe Biden was just as strident, declaring, “We don’t need those troops there. I would bring them home.” But advocates of the mission argue that a full withdrawal courts disaster, paving the way for terrorist groups to reestablish a safe haven in Afghanistan.

That distaste for remaining in Afghanistan is widespread is unsurprising after 17 years of war. And U.S. involvement in active military operations in Afghanistan has greatly decreased since 2010 and 2011, when nearly 100,000 U.S. troops were deployed. The remaining 14,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan support local security forces with airstrikes, surveillance, and advising. Afghan soldiers and police do the frontline work of defending cities against the Taliban, while U.S. special operations devote significant effort to battling al Qaeda and the Islamic State (or ISIS). The United States has fought a relentless campaign against these groups, and many opponents of the effort can endure it no longer.

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WNU Editor: What the Taliban are hoping for is a repeat on what happened when the Soviet Union left Afghanistan in 1989. A departure of foreign forces. An escalation in the war. Storming and seizing Kabul. Control of much of the country after that. But I do not think this will happen this time. I can see the Taliban controlling the Pashtun regions of the country, but the other regions will resist. Foreign countries will also get involved, and they will not be friendly to the Taliban.

Here Are 3 Big Mistakes The U.S. Made In Afghanistan

Soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division recover fuel at Forward Operating Base Waza K'wah in the Paktika province, January 29, 2011. The fuel was delivered by air drop, the task force's only means of resupply. US Air Forces Central Command/Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

Donald C. Bolduc, Business Insider/Military Times: The US's 3 biggest mistakes in Afghanistan

* At the tactical level, the US military has performed well in Afghanistan.
* But their political leaders and general officers on the ground and in Washington have failed them, argues retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald C. Bolduc.

War is often filled with its share of mistakes and errors in judgment. It's the nature of this lethal business.

Some are the result of changing circumstances on the ground, while others are more systemic. The United States has committed more than a few during its 18 years in Afghanistan.

Indeed, the entire war is a story of one mistake after another, putting success or "victory" as we typically define it further out of reach.

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WNU Editor: I would add a few other mistakes. (1) Not getting a handle on the culture of corruption that exists in almost every aspect of Afghanistan life. (2) The role of Pakistan in providing safe havens and permitting its madrassas to be used as recruiting centres. and (3) limiting military operations against the Taliban with rules of engagement that do not make sense (my favourite one was the one that did not permit the raiding of homes of suspected Taliban fighters at night).

This Is How The Taliban Will Take Over Afghanistan

Taliban militants appear at an undisclosed location in Afghanistan. Reuters

Seth G. Jones, National Interest: How the Taliban Would Take Over Afghanistan

Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan will almost certainly undermine any possibility of a peace settlement.

The seemingly endless war in Afghanistan—which is heading toward its eighteenth year since the overthrow of the Taliban regime—has led to a renewed push for an American military withdrawal. The Trump administration is considering withdrawing some or all U.S. forces from Afghanistan. Several American politicians support a drawdown. “I think we should come home,” declared U.S. Senator Rand Paul. “I don’t think we have enough money to be paying to build and rebuild and build and rebuild Afghanistan … Let’s rebuild America.”

Others have argued that Vietnam turned out fine in the end following the U.S. withdrawal in 1975. “While the Vietnam War was a near-term strategic defeat, in retrospect, it may yet prove to have been a geo-strategic win,” another article in Small Wars Journal concluded. “The same may prove true for Afghanistan after a U.S. withdrawal. Like a bad business investment, there are times when you must accept one’s losses and move on.”

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WNU Editor: At the moment I do not see the Taliban being successful in taking over Afghanistan. Most Afghans despise them and their brutal rule, and they will resist. But .... if the Taliban do take over Kabul, the immediate impact would be a refugee crisis that the region and the world would not be prepared for. The Taliban would also want to seek revenge against the ethnic groups that they have been in conflict with even before the U.S. invasion in 2001 .... and that in itself would produce bloodshed that Afghanistan has not seen in years. A Taliban victory would also embolden radical Islamic groups in the region, and it would be a magnet for other radical groups .... Al Qaeda included .... to set up camp in the country.

Can The Afghan Army Fight The Taliban Alone?

Afghanistan National Army soldiers attend their graduation ceremony on January 27, 2019. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani

Business Insider: As the US moves towards troop withdrawal, the fate of Afghanistan may rest in the hands of these soldiers

* Through peace talks with the Taliban, the US is moving closer towards a complete withdrawal the 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan.
* In the event of a complete withdrawal of US-led NATO forces, the fate of Afghanistan will rest in the hands of its National Army soldiers.
* Since 2014, the focus of the NATO mission has been to train Afghan soldiers to take over their country's security.
* A recent watchdog report found that the strength of the Afghan forces is at its lowest level in four years.

As US and Taliban officials move closer to reaching a deal during ongoing peace talks, the fate of Afghanistan may soon rest in the hands of its national army soldiers.

The US-led NATO mission shifted its focus towards training these security forces in 2014, drawing back combat troops in an attempt to hand control to the Afghan government.

But the training mission has struggled to recruit and maintain the number of forces the nation will need, and a recent report by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) notes the strength of the Afghan National Army is at its lowest in four years.

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WNU Editor: When you are losing 850 security forces every month. And who knows how many are severely wounded. Coupled with the loss of U.S. air power that has forced back the Taliban on a number of occasions. I fail to see how the Afghan Army can sustain the war if the coalition leaves.

This Is Why The Taliban Have Failed To Recapture Afghanistan After 17 Years Of War

Taliban fighters with their weapons in Afghanistan. Reuters file

Hizbullah Khan, The Independent: The Taliban has failed to recapture Afghanistan after 17 years of war – and this is why

It isn’t surprising that a nationwide poll in 2015 found that 92 per cent of Afghans supported the Kabul government and only 4 per cent favoured the Taliban.

The Taliban has refused peace talks for years, hoping that one day it will capture Kabul, remove a democratic government, and form an extreme regime in the country as they did in 1996. But Afghanistan is stronger today than it was back then: at that time the institutions were entirely destroyed during the civil war and there was no army. But now they are functional, with 314,000 Afghan army and police as well as 22,000 foreign troops.

The Taliban is still able to conduct high-profile attacks in Kabul and capture some parts of other cities. But it cannot be kept in one area of the city for long while ordinary people as well as its own members are being affected.

Since 2003, the Taliban has continuously striven to attack various cities in order to establish a base from which it can easily maximise its power throughout the rest of the country – but it has yet to succeed.

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WNU Editor: There are many reasons why the Taliban have failed to drive out the Afghan government and its allies from the country, not being embraced by a majority of Afghans is certainly one of them. The chaos and mayhem that they cause has also not endeared them with many supporters. Unfortunately, there are ten of thousands who do support them, and this war is going to last a long time because of them.

What Will Be The Cost Of Losing The Afghan War

People take selfies with a Taliban in Kabul, Afghanistan June 16, 2018. REUTERS/Mohammad Ismail/File Photo

Long War Journal: Analysis: The costs of withdrawal from Afghanistan

First it was Syria, then came Afghanistan. Two days ago, President Trump shocked the foreign policy community by announcing the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, wrongly claiming the Islamic State has been defeated. Within the last 24 hours, reports have emerged that the US military will quickly pull nearly half of its forces from Afghanistan, and likely withdraw the rest by the end of 2019.

Trump’s decision is unsurprising to us. We’ve reported since October that the order to withdraw from Afghanistan could come at any time.

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WNU Editor: The Taliban are trying to change their image .... Taliban seeks image makeover as Afghan peace talks gain momentum (Reuters). But they are who they are .... hard core Islamists with dreams of a caliphate in their part of their world. It is because of the Taliban's alliance with Al Qaeda that there will always be a U.S. presence in Afghanistan .... albeit not with the big foot print of the past.As for 2019 .... the war is going to escalate even further.

Is This A Way Out Of Afghanistan?

Resolute Support Media

James Durso, RCD: Is Erik Prince Pointing the Way Out of Afghanistan?

The tab to date: over $840 billion for military operations, $126 billion for reconstruction, probably another $1 trillion for veterans’ health care, over 2,400 dead, and over 20,000 wounded.

In August, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis kiboshed Erik Prince’s plan to privatize the war in Afghanistan which Prince called “an expensive disaster for America.” But with Mattis’s tenure in doubt, we may not have seen the last of the Prince plan, which is forthrightly titled “An Exit Strategy for Afghanistan.”

U.S. forces arrived in Afghanistan two weeks after the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, D.C. and are still there seventeen years later. The tab to date: over $840 billion for military operations, $126 billion for reconstruction, probably another $1 trillion for veterans’ health care, over 2,400 dead, and over 20,000 wounded. The annual cost is $50 billion, more than the defense budget of the U.K.

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WNU Editor: Erik Prince's plan will not be implemented. But at least he is raising a debate on what the U.S. needs to leave Afghanistan.

This Is What Winning Looks Like In Afghanistan

U.S. Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis departs Kabul, Afghanistan, Sept. 7, 2018. Mattis met with Afghan and coalition members during the previously unannounced visit to the country. DoD photo by Lisa Ferdinando.

Jeff Schogol, Task And Purpose: Afghanistan, 17 Years Later: This Is What Winning Looks Like

The distance between Resolute Support headquarters and the Afghan presidential palace in Kabul can’t be more than 50 feet, yet it is too dangerous to walk across the street from one to the other.

Your friendly Pentagon correspondent and other journalists traveled that short distance by vehicle to wait for Defense Secretary Mattis to meet Afghan President Ashraf Ghani during Mattis’ recent stop in Kabul, part of a week-long trip ‘round the word with the defense secretary that saw stops on San Diego, New Delhi, and Abu Dhabi.

Task & Purpose is not allowed to describe any of the security procedures involved in moving to and from the presidential palace, but rest assured that it felt just like going outside the wire — even if only briefly. And if you wanted a metaphor for how much progress the United States has made in Afghanistan after 17 years, look no further.

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WNU Editor: As the above author points out. The Afghan War has been going on for 40 years. And when you look at wars from a historical perspective .... Colombia’s civil war dragged on for 50 years; in Europe, the Hundred Years War lasted for 116 years, and (if I may add) the Troubles in Ireland have lasted for centuries. In the case of Afghanistan .... with the Taliban so closely allied with Al Qaeda .... IMHO this conflict is going to last for decades.

We Are Losing The Afghan War

Trends suggest that the total number of battle deaths in Afghanistan will exceed 20,000 this year, including civilians and combatants on both sides. Historical data is flawed, but the war may be growing more intense than anything since the 1980s. https://t.co/ac7K73CZjM pic.twitter.com/qiweTv8I8M

— Graeme Smith (@smithkabul) July 23, 2018

Business Insider: 'We are losing': Trump and his top advisors aren't publicly admitting how bad things are in Afghanistan

* Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, the Trump administration continues to reject the idea Afghanistan is America's "forever war" as the conflict nears its 17th anniversary.
* Experts say America is losing the war even as the Pentagon contends increased military pressure will help spark peace talks.
* Research shows the war has reached its deadliest point in years.
* A US soldier on his 13th deployment overseas was killed in an insider attack in Afghanistan on Monday.

Command Sgt. Maj. Timothy Bolyard was on his 13th deployment overseas when he was killed in an insider attack in Afghanistan on Monday.

Bolyard, who was 42, had served in the US Army for 24 years and was less than two months away from coming home and retiring, according to his son. The following day, Army Staff Sgt. Diobanjo Sanagustin died in a non-combat incident at Bagram Airfield, becoming the seventh US service member killed there so far in 2018, fighting in a war that has largely been forgotten by the US public and that experts say America is losing.

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WNU Editor: This is now a war of attrition between the Taliban and the Afghan government. In these situations there are usually just two outcomes. Both sides are exhausted and decide that it would be best to come to an agreement, or one side breaks and the other side takes advantage this collapse to rout their foe. In the case of Afghanistan .... I can easily see this conflict going on for the next decade or two, and an eventual peace agreement.

What’s Wrong With The U.S. Strategy In Afghanistan?

Image Credit: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead

Kashif Hussain, The Diplomat: What’s Wrong With the US Afghanistan Strategy?

The U.S. strategy has faltered out of the gate, thanks to a lack of coordination at home and in the region.

The United States’ Afghanistan-centric South Asia strategy aimed at outlining a plan for victory in its more than one-and-a-half decade long war with the Taliban. A combination of tools — including diplomacy, economic might, intelligence and military power — was employed during the past year for that purpose.

However, at the same time, the current situation in Afghanistan reflects a gloomy picture ridden with chaos and disorder, largely as a result of clashes between Afghan security forces and Taliban insurgents. There have also been widespread suicide bomb blasts across the country.

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WNU Editor: The U.S. intelligence community are not optimistic .... Military Believes Trump’s Afghan War Plan Is Working, but Spy Agencies Are Pessimistic (WSJ).

Even If The U.S. Leaves Afghanistan A Military Commitment Will Still Exist

U.S. Army 1st Lt. David T. Broyles watches as his men leave Observation Post Rocky with Afghan National Army Soldiers in Kunar province, Afghanistan, July 19, 2010. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Gary A. Witte

Dan Gouré, RCD: What If the U.S. 'Pulls the Plug' on Afghanistan?

The U.S. may be approaching a crucial decision concerning its military involvement in Afghanistan. Secretary of Defense James Mattis says U.S. activity there won’t end anytime soon. The question is, will President Trump stick with a plan that does not promise victory?

First, understand the mission. After 2014, Afghanistan became responsible for its own security. The Obama drawdown removed U.S advisers from regular Afghanistan units. NATO’s Operation Resolute Support started in 2015. Technically, it is a “non-combat” mission where security assistance advisers train and go out on missions with the Afghan Army.

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WNU Editor: Nothing has changed since I put up this post last year .... What Would Happen If The U.S. Left Afghanistan? (July 26, 2017).

Can The Afghan Military Defeat The Taliban?

WNU Editor: A sobering report, analysis, and discussion on the Afghan war.

The Afghan War Is Entering A New Phase

A member of the Afghan security forces stands guard next to damaged army vehicles after a Taliban attack in Ghazni city, Afghanistan August 15, 2018. REUTERS/Mustafa Andaleb

Peter Apps, Reuters: The new face of Afghanistan’s war

On the streets of the city of Ghazni this week, Afghan troops and Taliban fighters battled for the future of Afghanistan.

It was a savage fight. Several hundred Taliban insurgents attacked the town on Friday, and at the height of the battle they dominated the city, pushing back Afghan security forces to only a few key strongpoints while residents cowered in their homes. The Taliban said Wednesday it was pulling back its fighters from the city, but the government said an attack on an army base nearby killed at least 44 police and soldiers.

Should the Taliban have captured Ghazni, it would have been the first major urban victory since a short-lived 2015 takeover of Kunduz. Instead, they demonstrated once again their limitations. The insurgents remain adept at savage, one-off attacks, grabbing headlines and continuing to seize control of rural areas – this week they overrun several countryside districts in the broader Ghazni Province. But they have proved unable to grab control of Afghanistan’s key urban areas from a government with access to U.S. and Western airpower as well as its own increasingly capable security forces.

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WNU Editor: When I started this blog ten years ago I had a daily post devoted exclusively to the Afghan war. After a few years there was no longer any need to have a post on Afghanistan .... the war had subsided .... and that daily post was terminiated. Sadly .... Afghanistan War News Updates is returning. The war in that country is now as bad as it has ever been.

Russian Media: Afghanistan Turning Into Another Vietnam For The U.S.

RT: US losing in Afghanistan: Like Viet Cong, Taliban knows that waiting it out will defeat invaders

The latest conflicting reports about whether or not the Taliban has taken the strategic city of Ghazni between the Afghan capital of Kabul and Kandahar reflect the dilemma and difficulties that the American forces face today.

The concerns come despite the firepower and technology that the US has applied against an insurgent force, which has taken over more than 50 percent of the country. This is despite America having almost completely driven out the Taliban when it first invaded Afghanistan in late 2001.

The battle for Ghazni and indeed the effort to defeat the Taliban in remote areas of the country suggest that, notwithstanding the intelligence, technology and communications capabilities at its disposal, the US is losing the battle to secure the country.

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WNU Editor: So much for U.S. talk about peace talks .... The Taliban's brutal strikes are rising the death toll and raising questions about the US's peace talks (AP).

Should The U.S. Leave Afghanistan And Let Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, And India Sort It Out?

U.S. Marine Corps.

Jim Kane, RCD: Why America Should Let Its Rivals Play the Great Game in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has long occupied a contentious position between larger powers across South Asia. According to General John Nicholson, the Commander of all U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, the Russian government is arming the Taliban insurgency. Pakistan, too, arms the Taliban to ensure Afghan weakness and limit Indian influence. Iran, for its part, arms the Shia Hazara and western Taliban in Afghanistan and cooperates closely with the Russians to undermine U.S. interests. China has gained a foothold in Afghanistan through mining operations and military operations on Afghan soil while working closely with Pakistan to build an overland trade route to the Arabian Sea.

Given centuries of constant conflict across South Asia, it is amazing that all of these regional powers are cooperating so effectively. China and the Soviet Union went to war multiple times in the 20th Century, and China and Pakistan were important supporters of the Mujahideen resistance during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The Russians provided massive military assistance to the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein in its war against Iran. Pakistan and Iran occupy different sides of the enduring Shia-Sunni divide.

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WNU Editor: The temptation for the U.S. to leave is definitely there. But it is not going to happen.

What Did The Afghan Ceasefire Achieve?

Afghan Taliban militants ride a motorbike as they take to the streets to celebrate a ceasefire on the second day of Eid in the outskirts of Jalalabad in this June 16, 2018 file photo. — AFP

Michael Kugelman, Foreign Policy: False Dawn in Afghanistan?

A temporary Taliban truce, despite the opportunity it presents, doesn’t mean peace is about to break out anytime soon.

In recent days, unprecedented developments in Afghanistan have brought new hope to one of the most war-stricken countries in the world.

The Afghan government and the Taliban declared separate brief cease-fires to mark the Eid al-Fitr holiday. Over a remarkable three-day period, smiling soldiers, civilians, and Taliban fighters mingled together in the cities, including the capital Kabul, and shared hugs and sweets. Though the Taliban leadership declined Kabul’s request to extend the cease-fire, new truces have reportedly been struck between local officials and insurgents in parts of three different provinces.

Thanks to this momentum, Afghanistan now has a real opportunity to launch a long-elusive reconciliation process to end a war that has raged relentlessly for nearly 17 years. And yet, amid all the euphoria, a peace deal remains a far-off prospect. Getting the Taliban to the negotiating table will be tough enough; getting it to yes will be an even taller order.

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WNU Editor: Another sobering analysis on the Afghan war.

Two Must Read Commentaries/Analysis On The War In Afghanistan

Image: U.S. Army/Flickr

Will Selber, War On The Rocks: Three Tours, One Unsolvable Riddle: An Airman’s Reflections on Securing the Peace in Afghanistan

Advising a crusty Afghan general is a delicate endeavor. Like American generals, they’re accustomed to the trappings of rank and the deferential treatment that often accompaniesthem. But unlike their American counterparts, they have to endure innumerable coalition advisors peddling the latest “solution” to their problems. In 2014, I found myself advising a 50-something-year-old Afghan brigadier general who knew where the bodies were buried because he had buried many of them himself. General Gul was a ruthless bureaucratic knife fighter who had survived not only the incessant turf battles inside Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s administration, but also the bloody purges between the rival factions of the Afghan Communist Party in the 1980s. He oozed competence and experience and had little need for “advice,” especially from a lowly American field grade officer with a sliver of his experience.

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Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid has dismissed the peace 'slogans'. PHOTO: REUTERS

Bill Roggio, Long War Journal: Taliban: We’re ‘another name of the Afghan nation’

In a recent statement that addressed comments by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the Taliban reiterated that it considers itself the sole representative of the Afghan people. This is at odds with the opinion of some analysts who advise the US government on policy with respect to a negotiated settlement with the Taliban.

The Taliban statement, which is dated June 23 and published at Voice of Jihad, addressed Stoltenberg’s comments that “the way to achieve that [peace] is not to leave Afghanistan. The way to achieve that is to stay in Afghanistan”.

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Are There Are Signs Of Peace In Afghanistan?

Afghans took selfies with the militants in Kabul

Christian Science Monitor editorial: Clues of peace in Afghanistan

A declared cease-fire by each side, a peace march, and other steps hint that both the Taliban and the government are reacting to a new public mood for a political settlement.

After decades of conflict and costly foreign intervention, Afghanistan has a new chance for peace. Both the government and the Taliban have declared unilateral cease-fires to mark the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. The temporary halt in fighting is only for three days, June 15-18. Yet if it holds, it will be the most extensive halt to offensive operations since the United States invaded the country in 2001 in response to the 9/11 bombings by Al Qaeda.

Any path to peace remains difficult. But even a brief cease-fire may signal momentum toward a negotiated solution. Crucial to any prospects for peace will be a dialogue between the militant Islamic Taliban and the elected president, Ashraf Ghani, and his team about issues of governance and power sharing.

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WNU Editor: The Long War Journal has been covering the Afghan war for years, they have a different opinion .... Analysis: A misbegotten ‘ceasefire’ in Afghanistan (Long War Journal).