From Fabius Maximus:This study was, of course, ignored. As a general rule, the US government’s interest in advice is inversely proportional to the relevant expertise and knowledge of the source. Best of all is to know little about the subject, but have an active imagination and firm grasp of what the answers should be.
- ”How Terrorist Groups End – Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida“, Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki, RAND, 2008
Summary
All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end? The evidence since 1968 indicates that most groups have ended because (1) they joined the political process (43 percent) or (2) local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members (40%). Military force has rarely been the primary reason for the end of terrorist groups, and few groups within this time frame have achieved victory. This has significant implications for dealing with al Qa’ida and suggests fundamentally rethinking post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism strategy: Policymakers need to understand where to prioritize their efforts with limited resources and attention.
Read more ....My Comment: This information has been said before .... but this RAND document compresses it into an easy read. Kudos to FM for pointing it out.
1 comment:
Unfortunately, there's not much choice in the matter. Having AQ join the political process is impossible, since there is no real political process, only a global Jihad against the Evil West.
Local Afghan and Pakistani police and intelligence agencies are either unable and/or unwilling to effectively handle the matter, so the military option is all that's left. There is the 'nation building/hearts & minds' angle embedded with the military operation, so hopefully that would count for something.
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