A Commentary On How Long We Are Going To Stay In Afghanistan

MRAP CONVOY - U.S. Army soldiers walk through the village of Kotub Kheyl in Logar province, Afghanistan, as a convoy of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles passes by, June 24, 2010. The soldiers are assigned to the 401st Military Police Company, 720th MP Battalion, 89th MP Brigade. U.S. Army photo by Spc De'Yonte Mosley

One Way Out -- Russ Douthat, New York Times

Here is the grim paradox of America’s involvement in Afghanistan: The darker things get and the more setbacks we suffer, the better the odds that we’ll be staying there indefinitely.

Not the way we’re there today, with 90,000 American troops in-theater and an assortment of NATO allies fighting alongside. But if the current counterinsurgency campaign collapses, it almost guarantees that some kind of American military presence will be propping up some sort of Afghan state in 2020 and beyond. Failure promises to trap us; success is our only ticket out.

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My Comment: Permissible Arms has an interesting analysis on this NYT's commentary, and I strongly recommend reading her post after reading the above New York Time's story.

As to what is my take on a long term U.S. presence in Afghanistan .... it is not going to happen.

The U.S. and its allies have already passed a certain critical point in which Afghan support for a continued presence in Afghanistan is now quickly declining. Nato support is also dwindling, with Dutch and Canadian troops leaving within a year, and others now laying the groundwork for their own departures a year or two later.

In the end, the Taliban know that there will only be the Americans .... and a few Afghan supporters .... who will be the only force left that will stop them from taking over much of the country. The Afghan army may reach their 300,000 or more level, but like the Soviets who cobbled together an Afghan army closer to 500,000 in 1988 .... the discipline and commitment was not there then .... and it will not be there today.

General McChrystal's bleak assessment on the war .... delivered a few days before he was fired .... outlines these concerns .... and more. It is difficult to stay in a country when much of the population is either neutral at best .... or openly hostile (at worse) to your presence .... but that is the exact situation on the ground today. The Russians killed a million Afghans during their war from 1980 - 1988 .... and they stilled failed. Our counter - insurgency policy will also kill a lot of Taliban, but employing such a strategy when there is not enough force on the ground to be every where at the same time .... pacifying this country will be next to impossible.

As to the reason that we are in Afghanistan because of Al Qaeda .... and our fear that they will reconstitute themselves should we leave .... CIA Director Panetta discounted that idea when he mentioned in an interview with ABC News that there are only 60 - 100 Al Qaeda members in Afghanistan. Hmmm .... if 60 Al Qaeda members are a threat to our survival .... then we are truly a weak and insecure nation.