Do Not Discount China`s Navy

Building Navies Fast -- James R. Holmes, The Diplomat

Underestimating the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is a matter of course for many Asia specialists in the West, as senior US military officials concede. Some reasons given for overlooking China’s naval potential are specific to China. Also commonplace, however, is the claim that a great Chinese fleet won’t take to the sea anytime soon simply because it takes so long to build one. Typical of the genre: writing last year, George Friedman of the private intelligence firm Stratfor maintained that China possessed only:

‘a weak navy that could not survive a confrontation with the United States....China does not have the naval power to force its way across the Taiwan Strait, and certainly not the ability to protect convoys shuttling supplies to Taiwanese battlefields. China is not going to develop a naval capacity that can challenge the United States within a decade. It takes a long time to build a navy (my emphasis).’

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My Comment: There is a lot of truth in this article .... using history as a guide, we can easily see how a country can transform a small navy into a big and powerful navy in a very short period of time. The Chinese navy is going to be a major power on the oceans in the years the come .... they have the determination and will to proceed, and I do not doubt that they will succeed. The only question that needs to be answered is the following .... when will this happen. My guess .... give them 10-15 years.