Can China Be A Leader On The World Stage?

Image credit: UN Photo/Marco Castro

Can China Be A World Leader? -- Elizabeth C. Economy, The Diplomat

Recently I participated in a BBC/Carnegie Endowment debate on the U.S. presidential campaign and policy toward China with the eminent and estimable former U.S. Ambassadors Chas W. Freeman, Jr. and J. Stapleton Roy, and Tsinghua University scholar Yan Xuetong. The full debate is available here.

The discussion was wide-ranging but what struck me most was an assertion by one of the panelists that the next U.S. president will have to deal with the fact that China has surpassed the United States as the number one power (based on the size of its economy). As a result, in his opinion, China will no longer feel the need to defer to the United States and the current arrangement of international institutions.

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My Comment: When I was in China last month I asked my friend and host (a former mayor of a major Chinese city and a recently retired provincial premier) if China is now ready to be a major international player at the same level as the United States. His answer .... he rolled his eyes and commented that China cannot manage China .... let alone managing international relations and the complexities of multiple allies and interlinked economic/political/social/and national security organizations.

I took his answer to be a no.

And he is right,

I have been saying to my Chinese friends for as long as I can remember that while China is culturally old .... an ancient society with no other equal in the world .... it is (unfortunately) politically very immature .... still grappling with the concept and culture of democratic and free institutions, political/cultural/religious tolerance of opposite views, and what role should a modern Chinese government play on the regional/national/and international level. As witness to the recent tensions with Japan .... and their reaction to Japanese provocations .... I would have to say that the Chinese still have a long way to go. But for the moment .... they are doing what they do best .... forming one and one relationships .... and only if it suits them.