A Counter Revolution In The Middle East?

Seeds Sown In Middle East For The Next Revolution -- Benjamin Jensen, Washington Times

Region still a long way from democratic peace

The optimism surrounding the Arab Spring is giving way to fears of the next revolution. Daily, people around the world watch the triumph of bringing down Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak descend into pitched battles between secular protesters and an increasingly alienated government run by elements of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt is on the brink, with military leaders warning of a possible collapse of the state. This pattern of unrest highlights what is likely to be a long struggle ahead, not just in Egypt, but in multiple countries struggling in the wake of the Arab Spring to consolidate democratic gains.

Egypt is exhibiting patterns common to many revolutions captured by historian CraneBrinton in his 1938 book, “The Anatomy of Revolution.” The struggle to bring down a dictator is followed by a consolidation phase. There is no peace at the end of revolutions. Factions once aligned against a common enemy turn on one another, which leads to pitched battles resulting in unrest threatening the new regime. The glory of the revolution becomes a war of all against all, marked by reactionary violence.

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My Comment: Revolutions tend to spawn counter-revolutions a year or two later if certain conditions are right. Unfortunately ....  Egypt and Tunisia are exhibiting these symptoms. Libya is wracked by tribal and sectarian divisions, and it will be unstable for years. But Tunisia and Egypt are countries that are on the verge of economic collapse, and it is the economy that is the match that can start another cycle of mass protests, violence, and then finally revolution.