UN Report: The Arab Spring Has Cost The Middle East $600 Billion In Lost Growth

BBC: Arab Spring 'cost region $600bn' in lost growth, UN says

The Arab Spring protest movement has cost the region $614bn in lost growth since 2011, the UN says.

The estimate is the first of its kind by a major economic body.

It is equivalent to 6% of the region's total GDP between 2011 and 2015, the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) says.

The uprisings, which started in Tunisia, saw leaders toppled in four countries, and led to war in Libya, Syria and Yemen.

The UN says Arab states have faced economic and social stagnation since the uprisings in 2011. The report describes social progress as "grim" and says the rights of citizens have regressed in some countries.

The data also says conflicts have worsened debt, unemployment, corruption and poverty, and exacerbated the refugee crisis.

Economic analysis was done using growth projects made before the uprisings.

Read more ....

More News On The UN Report That The Arab Spring Has Cost The Middle East $600 Billion In Lost Growth

Arab Spring cost more than $600 billion worth of growth, U.N. report says -- Washington Post
Arab Spring has cost region 6 percent of GDP: U.N. agency -- Reuters
ESCWA: 'Arab Spring' cost Middle East economies $614bn -- Al Jazeera
Arab Spring 'cost $600bn' as Egyptians protest economic strife -- Alaraby
Arab states lose more than $600 billion in 4 years due to Arab Spring -- Middle East Confidential

Meet The Man Who Helped Trigger The Arab Spring

Five years ago, two Tunisians set themselves on fire in protest against the country's autocratic government. The world remembers one of them, the fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi. The other was Hosni Kaliya, pictured here. He survived, but now says he wishes he hadn't. Clemens Höges/ DER SPIEGEL

Clemens Höges, Spiegel Online: 'I Wish I Could Die': Meeting the Man Who Helped Trigger the Arab Spring

The Arab Spring began five years ago when two men set themselves on fire in Tunisia. One of them survived his self-immolation -- and now wishes he hadn't. This is his story.

Hosni Kaliya pulls a cigarette out of his pack with his mouth. When he poured gasoline on his body and set himself on fire, most of his right hand was consumed by the flames and all that remains is a stump without fingers. He still has four fingers on his left hand, but they jut out like claws, burned, stiff and contorted. His fingernails are curled. He wears black wool gloves with the fingertips cut off, so that they won't dangle emptily. A knit cap protects Kaliya's head, where his hair was burned off, and his unusually small ears. But the disfigured face, the work of doctors using old and new skin, how could he hide that?

Kaliya needs medication to sleep. Should his head fall backwards, he could be strangled by the skin on his neck, because it's stretched too tightly across his larynx. He shouldn't smoke, because the flames and soot severely damaged his lungs and trachea. But he does so nonetheless, as if he were trying to destroy what he has turned into: this figure that instills fear in children, a prisoner in his own body. "I wish I could die," says Kaliya.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I know about Mohamed Bouazizi, and while I knew that a second person also tried to self immolate .... and who survived .... I did not know that it was Hosni Kaliya until now. There is a lot of pain in this post .... but it is worth the read to understand how much of a disappointment the Arab Spring has become. On a personal note .... when I look back at what I wrote in this blog .... I am shocked that I predicted all of this. More to the point .... I expressed my fears in March 2011 that this revolution may lead to something terrible .... sighhh .... and I was right. My commentary at the time is here .... How The Arab Revolution Started.

The Arab Spring Is Dead

An F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron 31, and an F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron 213, prepare to launch from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush to conduct strike missions,September 23, 2014. REUTERS/U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Robert Burck

After U.S. Airstrikes In Syria: If The Arab Spring Wasn’t Dead Already, It Is Now -- Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post

For well over a year now, the Arab Spring has struggled on life support, doomed to die with barely a whimper. Instead, it ended definitively with the bang of U.S. airstrikes in Syria, coordinated with five of the Arab world's most authoritarian states. The long winter of a protracted war with the Islamic State and affiliated jihadists now seems here to stay.

There was a time when the White House genuinely had hope that people power and pro-democracy uprisings could reshape the Middle East. In a famous speech in May 2011, President Obama likened the dramatic self-immolation of a fruit seller in Tunisia, which triggered protests that toppled a long-ruling autocrat, to the defiance of Rosa Parks and the agitators of the Boston Tea Party.

Read more ....

My Comment: Civil wars in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq. Conflict and unrest in Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia. Political turmoil in the Gulf States. So yes .... the Arab Spring is definitely dead.

Why Democracy Has Failed In The Arab World

Why Arab Democracy Will Fail -- Ronald Bailey, Reason

Youth, history, income, and complexity.

The auguries of political science strongly predict that the Arab Spring rebellions will succumb to new autocrats in the near term. Sparked by a 2010 uprising in Tunisia, the Arab Spring revolutions toppled autocratic regimes not only in Tunisia but in Egypt, Yemen, and (with outside military assistance) Libya, while civil war broke out in Syria.

So why the gloom over the hopes for a wave of Arab democratization? Because, broadly speaking, data on the arcs of post–World War II revolutions suggests that their chances of successfully transitioning from autocracy to democracy are less than 50/50.

Read more ....

My Comment: An excellent and sobering assessment on why it is difficult to build democratic institutions in the Arab world. This is my must read piece for today.

After Two Years The Arab Spring Leaves The Region Unsettled

Ali Watkins | McClatchy Washington Bureau

Arab Spring Leaves Region Unsettled, Two Years Later -- McClatchy News

Egypt’s turmoil is a reminder that the revolution cycle in the Middle East and North Africa region is far from over, and far from satisfying the hopes stirred more than two years ago by the Arab Spring.

December 2010: Tunisia

Street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in a market square in Tunisia, protesting the government’s authoritarian rule. His solitary action kickstarted the Tunisian revolution, and less than one month later, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to exile in Saudi Arabia, where he remained as of January 2013. Tunisia held elections in October 2011; the moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, won the majority.

Read more ....

My Comment: After two years the region is unsettled?!?!?!? From my perspective .... the region has been "unsettled" since the beginning of time.

A Counter Revolution In The Middle East?

Seeds Sown In Middle East For The Next Revolution -- Benjamin Jensen, Washington Times

Region still a long way from democratic peace

The optimism surrounding the Arab Spring is giving way to fears of the next revolution. Daily, people around the world watch the triumph of bringing down Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak descend into pitched battles between secular protesters and an increasingly alienated government run by elements of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt is on the brink, with military leaders warning of a possible collapse of the state. This pattern of unrest highlights what is likely to be a long struggle ahead, not just in Egypt, but in multiple countries struggling in the wake of the Arab Spring to consolidate democratic gains.

Egypt is exhibiting patterns common to many revolutions captured by historian CraneBrinton in his 1938 book, “The Anatomy of Revolution.” The struggle to bring down a dictator is followed by a consolidation phase. There is no peace at the end of revolutions. Factions once aligned against a common enemy turn on one another, which leads to pitched battles resulting in unrest threatening the new regime. The glory of the revolution becomes a war of all against all, marked by reactionary violence.

Read more ....

My Comment: Revolutions tend to spawn counter-revolutions a year or two later if certain conditions are right. Unfortunately ....  Egypt and Tunisia are exhibiting these symptoms. Libya is wracked by tribal and sectarian divisions, and it will be unstable for years. But Tunisia and Egypt are countries that are on the verge of economic collapse, and it is the economy that is the match that can start another cycle of mass protests, violence, and then finally revolution.

Can The U.S. Influence The Direction Of The Arab Spring

The Terrible Twos -- James Traub, Foreign Policy

Can Washington prevent the turbulent Arab Spring countries from going the way of the post-Soviet states?

We have reached the second anniversary of the Arab Spring, but no one is celebrating; the divisions inside the "post-revolutionary" countries of Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have become so pronounced, and have provoked so much turbulence and violence, that a sense of grim foreboding has almost entirely eclipsed the giddy atmosphere of 2011. Optimism says that we are witnessing the inevitable birth pangs of democracy; pessimism says that the joyous scenes of two years ago will degenerate into yet deeper political and sectarian strife.

I have been trying to think about analogies that could offer some guidance for what the future holds. The obvious one is Eastern Europe after 1989 -- there, too, millions of people flooded the streets to demand freedom, overwhelming the benumbed autocracies which had ruled over them. But the two situations resemble one another only in their birth: Poland, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and the like had long traditions of liberal and even democratic rule, and shucked off communism as an alien and despised ideology.

Read More ....

My Comment: If it was only so simple. Culture is what defines a nation .... a people. The post Soviet States .... Russia included .... has no history of what we in the West take for granted .... i.e. democratic institutions, free press, respect for minorities, a legal and independent judiciary, etc.. and because of that they are what they are today. For the Middle and North Africa .... this disconnect is even greater. In these societies it is Islam that is the dominant cultural/political/societal component in their system, and there is zero possibility that the U.S. can influence that. The only thing that we can do is support those who want change based on the western model, and to also draw red lines so that the turmoil in the region does not spread into our nations.

The Dangerous And Deepening Divide Between Islamic World, West

Clockwise from top left: Protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo; Demonstrators marching through Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis; Political dissidents in Sana'a; Protesters gathering in Pearl Roundabout in Manama; Mass demonstration in Douma; Demonstrators in Bayda. Wikipedia

Dangerous And Deepening Divide Between Islamic World, West -- Peter Apps, Reuters

* Religion not the only cause of confrontation
* Close ties with U.S. seen as liablity now -analyst
* Arab Spring not as beneficial to West as had been hoped

WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters)- For those who believe in a clash of civilizations between the Islamic world and Western democracy, the last few weeks must seem like final confirmation of their theory.

Even those who reject the term as loaded and simplistic speak sadly of a perhaps catastrophic failure of understanding between Americans in particular and many Muslims.

The outrage and violence over a crude film ridiculing the Prophet Mohammad points to a chasm between Western free speech and individualism and the sensitivities of some Muslims over what they see as a campaign of humiliation.

Read more ....

My Comment: What's my take .... the Arab Spring and the elections that have followed have proven to be a blessing to Islamist movements. Through the ballot box they have been able to convince the rural, poor, and deeply religious voters that Western democracy and Western secularism should be disregarded and a more Islamic approach be adopted. Pushing the argument that a more Islamic society will not only solve the deep economic problems that exists in these nations, but it will also address perceived injustices and a sense of victimization .... has touched a nerve .... and in elections .... their vote. The question that is now on everyone's mind is .... can the Islamists deliver, and if not .... will they be willing to relinquish power if they are defeated in future elections. I guess only time will tell.

U.S. Intelligence Official: We Missed The Arab Spring Signs

U.S. Intelligence Official Acknowledges Missed Arab Spring Signs -- L.A. Times

WASHINGTON -- U.S. intelligence agencies missed evidence of the unrest across the Middle East and North Africa that exploded into popular uprisings last year during the so-called Arab Spring and are now trying to improve early warning systems, a senior U.S. intelligence official said.

David Shedd, deputy director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s chief intelligence arm, said analysts failed to note signs “that would have indicated to us, shown us, that there was a growing dissatisfaction ... in the general population

“We missed that.”

Read more ....

My Comment: This intelligence official is a bit hard on himself. Many in the intelligence community, media, academia, opposition parties in the Middle East, pundits, etc. ..., knew that the age of dictator in the Middle East .... especially after the fall of Saddam Hussein .... was coming to end. The only question that remained unanswered was .... no one knew exactly when.

Now we know.

A Recap of the Arab Spring

Turkey Has Reason to Worry About Arab Spring -- Ersin Kalaycioglu, Real Clear World

When the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in Sidi Bouzid led to an avalanche of protests in Tunisia in January 2011, nearly the entire Arab world began to rock with popular uprisings. Unforeseen protests by Arab youth seemed to catch diplomats, politicians, and students of Middle East politics unprepared. The initial reaction of the pundits was that a long awaited wave of democratization appeared to have arrived.

Then, the initial euphoria began to subside as the events in Yemen and Libya turned into tribal warfare and in Syria into sectarian civil war. Since we have no evidence in human history that tribalism leads to democracy, pundits began to wonder whether Arab revolt was ushering in democracy, tribalism, or yet another form of authoritarianism such as theocracy.

Read more ....

My Comment: This post provides a short summary of the Arab spring.

Road To Revolution: A Video Timeline Of The Arab Spring

Arab Spring Yields Different Outcomes In Bahrain, Egypt And Libya -- Washington Post

At the dawn of the first winter after the Arab Spring, Bahrain is an island of sadness. Every few minutes, U.S.-made Apache helicopters buzz Rula al-Saffar’s suburban walled community, a collection of pleasant, sand-colored stucco houses that is home to teachers, engineers, nurses and other middle-class families. Black armored vehicles filled with commandos stand guard at checkpoints along quiet lanes.

On a bucolic December morning, sun-drenched and warm, Saffar steers her Mazda SUV past the evidence of last night’s confrontations — fresh graffiti denouncing the king; spent tear-gas canisters fired at the teenagers who take to the streets in protest each night.

Read more ....

My Comment: The above is an excellent 5 minute video montage of this year's Arab spring in three Arab countries .... Bahrain, Egypt And Libya. Check it out.

Meet The Spiritual Leader Guiding The Arab Spring

Outspoken Cleric Guides Arabs On Revolution -- Financial Times

The Arab spring is turning into the spring of the Islamists, as religious parties score the biggest gains in elections. And one man is drawing particular satisfaction – Youssef al-Qaradawi, the 86-year-old controversial cleric named by many Arabs as a spiritual guide for their revolutions.

From his base in Doha, the Egyptian-born Qatari citizen has long been one of the most influential religious authorities in Sunni Islam, an influence derived partly from an unlikely standing as a media celebrity. His weekly show on Qatar’s Al Jazeera draws millions of viewers from across the Muslim world.

Read more ....

My Comment: Much of the Western media has underplayed the role that Islam is playing in the Arab Spring, and over playing the role of secularists and liberals in calling for change. The real situation on the ground is Islamist .... and in places like Egypt, it is now morphing into Islamist vs. Islamist.

The Death Of Gaddafi Buoys The Opposition In Syria And Yemen

Yemeni anti-government protesters chant slogans during a rally after the weekly Friday prayers in Sanaa. Image by: AFP Photo/Gamal Noman

Syrian, Yemen Opposition Buoyed By Gadhafi Death -- CNN

(CNN) -- Inspired by the death of deposed Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in Libya, demonstrators took to the streets of Syria and Yemen on Friday filled with a renewed sense of purpose to end the regimes there.

In Syria, protesters flooded streets in Homs, Idlib and other provinces, congratulating the Libyan people and warning their own ruler that he could soon meet the same fate. "Now Gadhafi is done, done! It is your turn Bashar!" they chanted.

In Yemen, demonstrations broke out in 17 provinces and in the capital city of Sanaa, where thousands of demonstrators took to Change Square. They flew the Libyan revolutionary flag and chanted, "Saleh the killer look at where Gadhafi is now; his forces could not save his life." Women in the crowd carried roses, a symbol of peaceful revolution in Yemen.

Read more ....

My Comment: Syria's unrest and violence continues, and demonstrations return to Yemen. As to what impact the death of Gaddafi will have on these countries .... I find myself (unfortunately) siding with this point of view.

Cost Of The Arab Spring

Demonstrations in Tahrir Square, Egypt

Report: Arab Spring Upheaval Cost $55bn -- BBC News

The popular protests this year in North Africa and the Middle East - known as the Arab Spring - have cost the region more than $50bn, a new report says.

The report, by consultancy group Geopolicity, says Egypt, Syria and Libya paid the highest financial price.

It warns that without a regional support programme, the effects of the Arab Spring could be regressive.

But oil-producing nations that have avoided or suppressed rebellions have benefited most, it says.

Read more ....

More News On The Cost Of The Arab Spring

Cost of "Arab Spring" more than $55 billion - report -- Reuters
Cost of Arab Spring close to $56bn, says study -- Arabian Business
Report: Arab Spring cost $50 billion -- UPI
Estimated Bill for the Arab Spring: $55 Billion -- The Atlantic
Four nations that feel the sting from the Arab Spring -- Sydney Morning Herald
The economic winners and losers of the Arab Spring -- CNN

WNU Editor: The report by the consultancy group Geopolicity can be read here.

Is The 'Arab Spring" Over?

Egyptians chant slogans against the government and military rulers after Friday prayers in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, 230 km north of Cairo July 15, 2011. Thousands of Egyptians packed Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday, keeping up pressure on the ruling generals to implement reforms more swiftly and to try ousted President Hosni Mubarak and his aides. Reuters

‘Arab Spring’ Dreams Dying Amid Violence -- Rowan Scarborough, The Washington Times

Hopes for democracy meet with iron fists.

The hopes for democracy that bloomed in the “Arab Spring” are drying up in a long, hot summer of crackdowns, civil war and continuing protests.

In Syria, President Bashar Assad’s security forces continue to gun down protesters as his army assaults neighborhoods in Damascus and other cities.

Egypt remains under the military’s tight control, while demonstrators are still protesting for reforms more that five months after the ouster of longtime President Hosni Mubarak.

Political turmoil in Yemen threatens a civil war much like the conflict in Libya, as both countries’ leaders desperately cling to power.

Read more ....

My Comment: What is my take .... the Arab spring is over. The only question now is .... what will happen in Syria and Yemen.