The Terrible Twos -- James Traub, Foreign Policy
Can Washington prevent the turbulent Arab Spring countries from going the way of the post-Soviet states?
We have reached the second anniversary of the Arab Spring, but no one is celebrating; the divisions inside the "post-revolutionary" countries of Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have become so pronounced, and have provoked so much turbulence and violence, that a sense of grim foreboding has almost entirely eclipsed the giddy atmosphere of 2011. Optimism says that we are witnessing the inevitable birth pangs of democracy; pessimism says that the joyous scenes of two years ago will degenerate into yet deeper political and sectarian strife.
I have been trying to think about analogies that could offer some guidance for what the future holds. The obvious one is Eastern Europe after 1989 -- there, too, millions of people flooded the streets to demand freedom, overwhelming the benumbed autocracies which had ruled over them. But the two situations resemble one another only in their birth: Poland, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and the like had long traditions of liberal and even democratic rule, and shucked off communism as an alien and despised ideology.
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My Comment: If it was only so simple. Culture is what defines a nation .... a people. The post Soviet States .... Russia included .... has no history of what we in the West take for granted .... i.e. democratic institutions, free press, respect for minorities, a legal and independent judiciary, etc.. and because of that they are what they are today. For the Middle and North Africa .... this disconnect is even greater. In these societies it is Islam that is the dominant cultural/political/societal component in their system, and there is zero possibility that the U.S. can influence that. The only thing that we can do is support those who want change based on the western model, and to also draw red lines so that the turmoil in the region does not spread into our nations.
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