Is Syria Like Iraq .... Or Not?

A Free Syrian Army fighter fires his rifle through a hole in the wall of a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighbourhood of Damascus February 3, 2013 (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Syria Is Not Iraq -- Shadi Hamid, The Atlantic

Why the legacy of the Iraq War keeps President Obama from doing the right thing in Syria.

More than a year ago, a real debate began over whether to intervene militarily in Syria. Here in The Atlantic, Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations was one of the first to propose taking military action - or at least thinking seriously about it. When Cook wrote his article (which, in its prescience, is well worth re-reading today), around 5,000 Syrians had been killed. Today, the number is more than 10 times that, and is now over 60,000 according to some estimates. I remember, early on, wondering whether 15,000 would be a "trigger."

Read more ....

My Comment: After Iraq there is very little if any American support to get involved in another Middle East war. And while Shadi Hamid does not believe that Syria is like Iraq .... I do believe that it is. Different religious sects and tribal groups marked with decades of bitterness and resentment. A country that has no lasting historical or cultural affinity to Western concepts of democracy and tolerance but a long history of being hostile to outsiders .... specifically at Westerners and non-Muslims. Foreign involvement with a heavy Jihadist element. Suicide attacks and incidents of terrorism. I am describing Syria .... but I can also use the same words to describe Iraq.

The cycle of war has to burn itself out in Syria .... and I believe that this will take another year or two before it ends. Unfortunately .... when it is over .... Syria will be a ruined and deeply divided country with almost 200,000 dead, 500,000+ wounded, and 4-5 million refugees. And while they will blame others for this predicament ..... Western inaction/Iranian-Russian involvement/sheiks from the Gulf/etc. .... the sad fact is that this is something that the Syrians brought down on themselves. And in this regard .... they are not like Iraq.