Russia's Coming Implosion -- Clifford May, Real Clear World
At first blush, Ilan Berman's timing could hardly be worse. His new book, Implosion: The End of Russia and What It Means for America, is being published just as Russian president Vladimir Putin has eaten American president Barack Obama's lunch and saved Syrian dictator Bashar Assad's bacon - figuratively speaking, of course.
Putin also has been empowering Iran's rulers, selling them the means to make nuclear weapons and denouncing economic sanctions as "a violation of international law." Adding insult to injury, Putin has been making the case, in the New York Times and elsewhere, that never again should the U.S. military be deployed without the U.N. Security Council's authorization. That has won him plaudits from progressive internationalists who appear not to comprehend that what he means is that never again should the U.S. military be deployed without his personal authorization - since Russia wields veto power at the U.N.
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My Comment: Regular readers of this blog know that my nationality is Russian .... all of my uncles, aunts, and cousins are still there .... but the children of some of my cousins are now starting to move and live in Europe and the U.S.. In my own case .... I live in Montreal, Canada .... but I do make the effort of visiting my family in Russia/Ukraine at least once a year. It is in this context that I can respond to Clifford May's article on Russia .... and using my own experiences I can say that while her observations are spot on .... I do differ with her conclusions.
To begin .... there is a religious and spiritual revival in Russia .... and while this has not yet translated into the Russian political/economic world .... I am confident that with time it will succeed. Russia is also incredibly rich with resources .... but it is also rich with a young generation who are embracing a future that is at odds with what Putin wants Russia to be .... and in this case I know that Putin and his generation cannot win .... to begin .... this younger generation are 40 years younger than him .... and they know that with time they will persevere. As to demographic trends .... even that is changing .... Russians are having children now .... more because their economic status is improving rather than government promotion and encouragement. And as to fears of "Muslims and Chinese hordes" taking over he country .... those fears have been around for centuries .... but they are just that .... fears with no real justification.
Russia will not implode .... and while it may change over the next few decades .... because of geography and resource wealth it will still be around and it will still exercise an influence on world affairs.
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