A Disaster Scenario For Afghanistan

A CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter flies over Helmand province, Afghanistan, Oct. 7, 2013. The crew, assigned to Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 462, conducted an external mission as part of demilitarization. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Gabriela Garcia

Afghanistan: A Bigger Monster -- Michael Yon

Just months ago Pentagon officials dismissed the idea of a total pullout from Afghanistan. Today we are on the verge of ending negotiations on our future there, leading to the “zero option.” Total withdrawal.

If we execute a zero option, this is my basic worst-case prediction, which is not far from my most likely scenario prediction:

President Karzai and his government seem to believe we need Afghanistan and will not abandon him, or that we will cave to ridiculous demands. We will not. Remember Iraq. Look at our own current shutdown. The US is in serial crisis mode and Afghanistan is overplaying its hand.

Both the Afghan and US governments frequently behave irrationally, and some US decision-makers are looking for any excuse to drop Afghanistan. Psychologically, we are in a perfect position to negotiate, regardless of the security consequence.

Without support, the Afghan economy will collapse.

Following the economic collapse and without Coalition military support, the Afghan government will also collapse.

Read more ....

My Comment: A must read from Michael Yon. On a side note .... my Russian relatives who fought in Afghanistan for the Soviet Union in the 1980s predicted this worse case scenario a few years ago .... and I suspect that they (and Michael Yon) will probably be proven right.