The Shrinking “Oil-Spot Strategy” -- Mark Thomspon, Time
The greasy stain in Afghanistan is spreading the wrong way
When push came to shove for the U.S.-led military efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, some experts urged the adoption of a so-called “oil-spot strategy” as a way of doing more with less. Instead of placating the entire nation all at once, it called for the establishment of small, secure areas that would gradually grow over time as counter-insurgency successes in the initial zones oozed outward and ultimately connected.
It made sense, at least at first glance. But now, a key monitor of U.S. success in Afghanistan is warning that the opposite is, in fact, happening: more and more of Afghanistan is becoming insecure as the U.S. and its allies leave the country. In other words, the “oil spots” are shrinking, surrounded by growing areas of instability.
Bottom line: the U.S. strategy of securing more of Afghanistan seems to have worked only so long as U.S. troops were on the ground to secure it. The handoff of security to Afghanistan hasn’t taken root, and the nation is becoming less secure as the U.S. pulls out.
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My Comment: Yup .... the bottom line is that Afghanistan is a big country .... and without the necessary boots on the ground .... the Afghan army is wholly unprepared to assert control and maintain some semblance of security.
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