2014 Predictions For Afghanistan

U.S. Marine Corps Cpl. Dylan Tucker patrols during an operation in Qul'ah Zer in Helmand province, Afghanistan, Dec. 20, 2013. Tucker, a rifleman, is assigned to India Company, 3rd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. James Mast

Predictions For Afghanistan In 2014 -- Zachary Laub, Defense One

Afghanistan faces a critical year ahead as the NATO-led war draws down after twelve years and an impasse in U.S.-Afghan negotiations leaves uncertain the future of Western military support. A drop-off in aid and elections slated for April, which could deliver the country's first democratic transfer of power, will also test Afghanistan's stability. Five experts offer their forecasts.

The end of the U.S. war in Afghanistan should not be confused with the end of the Afghan war, writes the International Crisis Group's Graeme Smith, as Afghan troops cannot yet secure the country on their own. Yet even viable security forces cannot ensure stability if President Hamid Karzai's successor lacks broad-based support, writes RAND's Seth Jones, or if state institutions fail to become self-sufficient, says Clare Lockhart of the Institute for State Effectiveness. Nader Nadery, of the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, warns that an economic downturn threatens to reverse a decade of social progress, while CFR's Daniel Markey notes that neighboring Pakistan will continue to influence Afghan affairs.

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My Comment: What's my prediction .... nothing is going to change. The Afghan civil war will continue .... corruption and the drug trade will boom .... and Afghanistan's neighbors will interfere by making the situation worse.