Crimea Votes Overwhelmingly To Join Russia

Crimea Referendum: Voters 'Back Russia Union' -- BBC

Some 95.5% of voters in Crimea have supported joining Russia, officials say, after half the votes have been counted in a disputed referendum.

Crimea's leader says he will apply to join Russia on Monday. Russia's Vladimir Putin has said he will respect the Crimean people's wishes.

Many Crimeans loyal to Kiev boycotted the referendum, and the EU and US condemned it as illegal.

Pro-Russian forces took control of Crimea in February.

They moved in after Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted after street protests.

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My Comment: Not surprised by the outcome of this vote .... but I am surprised by the percentage (I expected 80%) .... boycotts from the Tatar community and those who see themselves as Ukrainian probably helped to boost the numbers. But even if there was no boycott .... the outcome was never in doubt. The reasons why so many voted to join Russia are simple and basic .... (1) preservation of their language and cultural identity, (2) a realization that as Russians they would have no place in a Ukrainian nationalist government .... so why stay, (3) economic security .... Ukraine is facing an economic catastrophe and Western promises of aid are falling short and late while Russia has always been there to support them, and (4) the rhetoric from Ukrainian nationalists and the realization that they will have a powerful voice in a new government has alarmed every Ukrainian-Russian .... lets face it  .... you can criticize Putin as an authoritarian leader but most Crimeans do not want to be ruled by people like this.

The next few days is going to be predictable. Western condemnation, sanctions, and a move to isolate Russia ..... measures that will look impressive on paper and on TV ....but totally meaningless in the long run. The West's moral authority has also been undercut by the obvious overwhelming support in Crimea for secession from Ukraine and a union with Russia .... but I will not be surprised if the western media spins the official line .... the vote is illegal and contrary to international law. If there is going to be a problem .... it is what to do with the military bases that are still under the control of the Ukrainian central government. I doubt that Russian forces are going to be used to evict them tomorrow .... but .... once the Russian parliament has formally recognized and accepted Crimea's petition to be a province of Russia .... all bets will be off.

But as significant as this vote was today .... the really big picture is being ignored. The nationalist revolution that overthrew the previous Ukraine government has created an enormous crisis throughout the country. Government salaries and pensions are being cut and in many cases not being paid. Ukraine - Russian tensions on the streets are poisonous in the central/southern/and eastern parts of the country .... with clashes/purges/and threats being the norm and not the exception. People are starting to arm themselves ... and communities are starting to split. There is a possibility .... as horrific as it may sound .... that a European country with 50 million people could be on the verge of a civil war. If such a civil war breaks out .... Europe and the world will be faced with a Yugoslav break-up times ten .... and Russia will not stand idly by .... I know for a fact that in the event of a worst case scenario .... they will state bluntly that they would go to war agaginst NATO if the west should get involved.

On a personal note .... I found this news all very distressing. I worry for my family who live there .... and I am very concerned about their well being and safety. I am also thinking of my father. Even though we are Russian .... on my father's side the family has lived in the Ukrainian city of Bila Tserkva for centuries. Our ancestral cemetery is there .... our ancestral homes/lands/etc .... in short .... the entire history of my family is there. If he was alive today I know that he would be heartbroken to see what is happening to his hometown .... for he is a man who survived the Ukraine famine, Stalin's purges, and the onslaught of the Nazi war machine in World War II .... and he did so for love of mother Russia and for his love of Bila Tserkva. But today .... if he was around .... he would be wondering if all of that sacrifice was wroth it ..... and I also know that he will be very very angry. Trust me on this one .... right now .... in Ukraine .... there are lot of people who are beyond angry right now.

Update #1: My mother has just talked with her sister (she live ins the Ukrainian city Kharkov) .... and she is saying the same thing that RT is reporting .... demonstrations for secession from Ukraine are widespread .... counter protests in support of Ukraine are also present but smaller .... and violence is happening between the two groups.

Update #2: This is ominous .... The Ukraine government has ordered loyal military units into the volatile eastern regions of the country .... naturally the local Russian populations are upset.

Update #3: It is late .... I need to sleep. Blogging will return early tomorrow morning.