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Ukraine's Dangerous Drift Towards Chaos -- David C. Hendrickson, National Interest
Tensions are rising; positions are hardening; the tension between “self-determination” and “territorial integrity” is coming into play. What happens now?
One of the most deplorable features of the Ukraine crisis has been the unwillingness of both Russia and the United States to restrain their respective allies. Until yesterday, when reports emerged that Washington is now counseling a go-slow approach to the prospective sieges of Donetsk and Lugansk, Washington has betrayed little anxiety that the Ukrainians might go too far. About the only daylight observable between the two states has been that the U.S. State Department refers to the insurgents as separatists, whereas the Ukrainians call them terrorists. But American officials have not condemned the use of that terminology by the Ukrainians, and they continue to defend Ukraine’s military actions as “moderate and measured.”
The language of the Ukrainian authorities is of a war to the death. "We will not stop,” said the newly appointed Defense Minister, Valeriy Heletey. He continued:
We will bring in maximum numbers of troops and weapons, and strengthen them with National Guard soldiers, police troops and the Security Service - all will be thrown in to defend the Donbas . . . to defend those cities from terrorists.
Those not willing to give up arms [will] understand that waging a war against the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people is not just dangerous but it will mean doom for these people . . . We will continue the active phase until the moment there is not a single terrorist left on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk.
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My Comment: David C. Hendrickson analysis is spot on. If there is a commentary that you must read this weekend .... this is the one.
4 comments:
Yes a good analysis, but I disagree on two points. Putin is not in a corner, at least time wise. All he has to do is make sure the separatists don't lose in the next 10 months, for winter is coming and that's Kiev's deadline. It's the Ukrainians who've put themselves in the box with their rhetoric and actions of winner take all.
Agree .... the rhetoric from Kiev has been unhelpful. Putin is in a bind .... but anger is not being directed at him but at Kiev. As for Ukraine as a whole .... they are going to have a tough winter .... no doubt about it. Unemployment is sky-rocketing. The economy is in a mess. People in Kiev and outside of eastern Ukraine are getting worried .... correction .... deeply worried.
That is right James. When winter comes it wil be a catasrophe for the Ukrainians, no gas and cold. The conflict can go many ways, one thing i am sure about is that Putin stil has some trics to use if he needs too.
1.
Can the pro-Russians in Donetsk hold out for more than 4 months or are they doomed?
2.
There have been an increase in causalites on the Ukrainian side. Can this lead to Poroshenko trying to negotiate and stop the ATO? I myself doubt that since he still uses rhetoric and said that the resposible shall be "destroyed".
3.
Any news about the portable missiles that Russia sent to the pro-Russians? I know that they now have got a modern air defense in Donetsk.
4.
Have you read the reports by Dmitry Tymchuck a Ukrainian strateg? If yes what are your opinions about his reports?
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