Combat Reversals Pressure Syria's Assad, Complicating Efforts Against Islamic State -- Wall Street Journal
Troubles Come as Obama Prepares to Outline Plan to Combat Militants.
AL-HURRA, Syria—Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who four months ago seemed on the verge of defeating rebel forces, is now mired in defensive battles on several fronts, complicating efforts to fight the Islamic State militant group.
In a span of weeks, the Islamic State has overrun military bases in Syria's east. In the west, the regime faces a coalition of rebels that threatens the heartland of Mr. Assad's Alawite minority and could alter the course of Syria's multi-sided civil war. Alawites, a Shiite-linked group that forms the backbone of the regime and pro-government militias, are angry over the loss of hundreds of troops last month after the Islamic State captured an air base in the northeastern province of Raqqa.
These developments come as President Barack Obama prepares to describe on Wednesday his own plan to defeat the Islamic State, a Sunni-extremist group also known as ISIS or ISIL. Mr. Assad's troubles could complicate the fight against ISIS by worsening a power vacuum that has allowed the Islamist group to thrive in Syria and neighboring Iraq.
Read more ....
More News And Analysis On The State Of The Syrian Civil War
The Syrian Civil War Is On The Verge Of Getting Even Worse -- Business Insider
Syria’s Assad thinks he is winning. He could be wrong. -- Washington Post
Rigged Cars and Barrel Bombs: Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War -- International Crisis Group
ISIS Parades Captured American Weapons as Assad, Hezbollah Routed Near Israeli Border (VIDEO) -- Al Gemeiner
My Comment: The momentum that the Assad regime had at the beginning of the year has disappeared. They have lost the eastern part of the country to the Islamic State, and they are on the brink of losing their part of the Golan Heights. In the other regions .... a stalemate is now the new normal. And while I do not expect the Assad regime to fall anytime soon .... they are certainly not winning, and if the Russians/Hezbollah/Iran should withdraw their support .... it would not surprise me if in a year (or less) they would then lose Damascus and other major parts of the country .... ending up (and making their last stand) in the Alawite enclave of Latakia on the Mediterranean coast. As to who would then replace the Syrian government .... a nightmare scenario of Jihadist groups that would make the ongoing sectarian/Jihadist/tribal disaster in Libya puny in comparison.
8 comments:
Depend on how much free time I do get today, later today I will write a summary of the happenings from the last two weeks.
My post is just to long so I will take it to two part.
__Part 1__
I think there is no question on who is winning - SAA - this war, and who actually will win it, only IS could change the situation, but it's depend on how they decide, where they want to focus their fighting, in Iraq or in Syria. My bet is on Syria, because it's the softer target, but we will see.
The situation on the Syrian frontlines are not so bad from the SAA's point of view, here is a short summary:
- Aleppo: Not much action going on here, only slow advances and tries from both side, but no major offences. The city is almost fully encircled, and the only route leading into it is under fire coverage, so the time is against the defenders (rebels).
- Der-er-Zor: Fightings going in this area, SAA try to keep the ground against IS. The situation is seems to be stable here, but IS could start a large offensive at anytime, which could lead to the fall of the city. SAA just saving time here, because as long as IS keep some of their forces around this city, they could attack with lest power on other fronts. The time here is against IS, and probably they will do something to fix this problem.
- Damascus area: SAA is definetly winning in this front, there is no question about that. The ongoing cleanup of Jobar district, and the further advances from Al-Malahe is the most important part of this front. SAA continued the offensive in Eastern Gouta to separate the highly urbanised areas from the less urbanised parts, and force the rebels into a similar situation as happened in Jobar, Barzeh or Al-Qabun districts of the capital.
- Homs area: IS present in more areas of this province then before, which is a great danger. It's very possible that IS will launch an operation in this area, because of the lack of SAA units in this area, and with this move they could reinforce the areas they hold here, to provide support to their own forces in the case if SAA launch a major offensive here.
- Hama area (North): The main action happening here, that was the place where SAA started it's big offensive of this summer. The above report mention the Colonel called Suhail al-Hasan. His nickname is "Tiger", and really one of the best SAA officer. During the last two weeks SAA forces recaptured almost all the areas south from Al-Lataminah, which were captured by rebels just by a month ago. SAA can overpower the rebel forces in North Hama/Morek frontline, with a colonel like al-Hasan, is must be a breakthrough in the direction of Khen-Shikhoun and later to Iblid. I expect more news from this frontline in the following weeks.
- Iblid: Not much going here, only the assasination of the Islamic Front leader (and also other 50 rebel). This frontline will not move until the Hama frontline is not on offense.
- Daraa area: Not much going on this frontline, it's quiet stable now, only minor battles and fighting going on.
- Quinerta area (Golan): Now this is a frontline which I expect to be active, and I think SAA with NDF will liberate (or at least will try) the town of Quinerta, the border crossing and it's area. But SAA and NDF forces in this area not as strong as the Hama front, so the liberation will take some month ( winter is a possible date for that).
- Qalamun and the Libanese border areas: Mostly safe and stable area, with some assasination by SAA and minor skirmishes, but not much.
All in all, after the loss of Tabqa Air Base, the Raqqa frontline just stopeed to exist and now the preassure is more on Hama and Homs. IS has an advantage and if they smart enough they could push SAA to a horrible situation ( the rebels are already in this situation), but I'm not 100% sure that they will do what I think they should do.
__Part 2__
Another additional information for the fall of Tabqa AB. A few days after the base had fallen, SAA executed 3 high ranked officer in Tartus province. The 124th unit of Rep. Guards also came from this area. The officers were charged with "helping and giving information to the enemy". Another video appeared on YT just a few days ago (got removed, I lost the track of it) made by IS, which showed fighting around Tabqa, and this video actually showed a supprise attack on SAA units. The video showed large amount of solders fleeing headless, many of them were execution while they running away, or even in their tents where they slept. If this video really came from Tabqa ( and because it's showed even more Mig-21 plane captured with the amount of 10+, and also the captured radars) this could mean that the 124th unit were betreyad by the mentioned officers from Tartus, and this caused the loss of 3-400+ SAA soldier and a fallen base. This story is not easy to belive, now just a theory, but need to be cleaned up.
Additionally, the possible answer for the question "How any officer could stay in their ranks so long if they secretly helped the enemy?" is simple. Tartus was mostly avoided by fighting, and only some minor battle was in this area, mostly in the Lebanese border or some spillover from Hama/Homs, this not gave any good chance for these officers to expose themselfs.
I do not expect any peace between the rebels and the Syrian Gov., because they just don't admint the existance of each others, but I expect truce(s) to be more common in many frontlines.
Here are two recent video footages from the Syrian Civil War (could contain graphic parts):
- Heavy Urban fighings in Jobar district of Damascus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9FipXA0QWM
- NDF (mostly) and SAA forces fighting against rebels:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PtSyH7yMWU
Thank you for your commentary mlacix. If it is OK with you, I am going to post it later tonight as an individual post that gives a summary on what is happening in Syria. With the U.S. about to get involved in Syria .... interest is picking up on what is happening on the battlefield.
Thanks WNU. Feel free to share any of my comment. I try to do my best when gathering the information in the related topic, and I'm sure somethimes I miss something, or missunderstand a situation, but in general I hope my summaries are helpfull for others.
mlacix and WNU,
IS operations during the last month seemed to me all about securing their land communications with Turkey. This included pushing back the Peshmerga on one flank and the SAA and non aligned rebels on the other. Since then it seems to have been as you have detailed mostly consolidation and local adjustments.
IS has four strategic possibilities to pick from:
1) Knock out Syria. A good possibility, but what would it gain them in a strategic sense? Not much I believe, Syria is somewhat defanged right now and is just trying to survive.
2) East and Southeast, Baghdad, Kurdistan. Maybe Baghdad, but no farther and even that invites a head on with Iran who's just acquired a nifty air force (the US). Probably not.
3) South to Saudi Arabia, a good possibility (to clean out the defilers of the holy places), but that would put them in the open desert with the US Air Force prowling around. They might try it, but I wouldn't.
4) Consolidate what they've got, get a feel for US measures, and concentrate on infiltration and destabilization projects.
I'm betting on 4, with the caveat they might try to take Baghdad for the PR if the opportunity pops up.
Sorry for the late answer James, hope you still watch this article. (Again comment will be separated into two part.)
__Part 1__
You are right, and point 4 is clearly the best for IS, but the points you mention are mainly political ones, while I do focus on the military aspect mostly. IS has many great military possibilities in Syria, which can has a huge effect (both in military and PR side). I hope they don't read this conversation, I would not like to give them advices, but anyway I'm sure their military leaders know about every military possibilities.
Here are some of the most important ones (focusing to Syria only):
- Cut the SAA's supply lines between Aleppo and Hama/Homs.
This is one of the easiest task now. SAA has a way too long route to Aleppo (because of the lost main route in Iblid province), which hard to protect, rearely populated, in a desert like terrain. After the capture of Tabqa AB IS has all the possibility to cross the desert to the west and cut SAA supply lines, and by this SAA forces would be encircled in Aleppo. Great drop of moral for SAA, PR win for IS, with the use of only a minimal amount of light, motorised forces. It's not even matter if IS will retreat after a few week of fightings, because if SAA reallocate some of their forces and weaker other fronts (and could stop advances into Iblid province), it's also a win.
- Capture of Der-Er-Zor.
This city is a very important strategical position, but with a strong defense, and I think it's not worth for IS to fight for it with large forces. SAA use this city to keep IS forces in this area instead of let them to go somewhere else. If IS doing so, they just do what SAA want, and currently this is the situation. I don't expect the fall of this city, because of it's high cost, but maybe IS think it differently.
- Invade areas of Hama province.
From Tabqa a main route leading to Hama, so it's logical that IS could invade areas there. This task could be combined or be a part of the already mentioned "cut the SAA supply lines to Aleppo" task. I don't think IS would go this far, deep into Hama, because in the above example it's could be easier to attack just 20-50km south from Aleppo, instead of risk a large frontline, but sure, this step would make panic in the lines of SAA.
- Invade areas near to the city of Homs (mostly East, North-East).
Logical, easy target, where IS already have some forces and captured some villages. For a short time, they would meet with low level resistance, but in long time, they would be a main target of SAA attacks. Also the capture of Homs is a lost idea, but to break the "siege" of the encircled rebels North from the city is a possible goal. But SAA surely would not just let IS to do so.
- Invade eastern parts of Homs province (Palamiya area mostly).
Logical, not very populated, desert like terrain, with big distance between the main towns. Palamiya as the main center of this area, and the nearby airbases (like T4) are the main home of the SU-24 bombers and the most important air units of the Syrian Air Forces. Those bases just like the whole area is in a great danger, and the amount of SAA forces in the area is unknown, however, probably just small. This is the second most important target for IS in Syria, in my point of view ( after the Aleppo supply lines). The importance of this area is very high for SAA and SAAF.
- Destroy SAA forces in Hasakie.
Not a strong target, or at least not as strong as Der-Er-Zor, and can cause huge moral drop in SAA, plus has a good PR value. It's also a good practice and training for IS for how to fight against SAA in an urban warfare, instead of the past few months desert/not very urbanised/base type areas of fighting. With the capture of this area they would eliminate all SAA forces north from the Aleppo - Der-Er-Zor line.
__Part 2__
- Weaker SAA forces in and around Aleppo and/or break the siege of the city.
In case if IS could make some agreements with rebels this could be a reality. But as long as they are enemy, it's quiet unlikely. We already heard about some agreements between IS and rebels, but different parts of the rebels has different relation with IS. For example in north, the many original FSA fighters hate IS more then SAA. Additionally there is a chance that IS would attack an encircled Kuweyres Air Base. This base was already attacked in this summer, but IS forces were pushed back, and this defeat just not got enough attention at that time. They surely will try to capture it once again.
In general there is one more thing to mention, which is undercovered. This is the assasination of the well known leader of the Islamic Front (later just "IF"), who died just a few days ago. Here we need to ask the "why" and "who". This is important because western and ME forces recently united against IS. The death of the IF leader will drop the moral of the rebel fighters in the area of Iblid and Aleppo (but probably will not effect much in other areas), and there is a great chance for the whole IF could fall to aparts. This fall aparts only will happen if some groups will make their own decisions, just like we already seen the agreements with IS in Daraa, and if SAA make great advances and archive victories in the current "home/hearthland" of the rebels, in Iblid province. If it's happening on that way, it's very likely that they will fall to apart or make agreement with one side, IS or SAA.
The method of the assasination is seems like it was from IS, but during the last one year (and specially in the last months) there were many organised assasinations made in all around Syria, and even in places where there was truce, or IS not presented in large number. The type of assainations were different from IED attacks, to airstrikes, but also there were shotouts in some places. This scale of the assainations is interesting, because SAA has a special unit (I don't know it's name now), but they are specialised on working as cover agents inside rebel units and rebel held areas. I'm sure they not so strong to make all the assasinations alone, but clearly they weakened the leadership of the rebels during the past one year.
This whole current situation just seems like when Islamic Front just took the place of FSA, back when some FSA commander were executed/assainated by IS, and the remained FSA forces had to decide where to go and what to do. Some joined to IF and others just leaved Syria and the war behind. The next few month will be critical on how the rebels decide, how long the Hama front could advance into Iblid and will IS let the SAA to advance against the rebels.
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