It’s Time To Back Away From The Russian Wolf -- Tony Brenton, The Telegraph
Russia's President Vladimir Putin won’t be thwarted by Nato or economic sanctions and his aim of a neutral Ukraine is acceptable.
There is a Russian proverb: “If you can’t face the wolf, don’t go into the forest.” The West has blundered into the Ukrainian forest and enraged the Russian wolf, only to discover that we cannot face him. We should now be looking for the path out.
Western policy has been built on two false premises. The first is that we must stop a revanchist Russia. As this narrative runs: yesterday Russia took Crimea; today Eastern Ukraine; tomorrow – who knows – Estonia, Poland? This precisely mirrors the Russian nightmare of predatory Nato expansion; yesterday Poland and Estonia, today Georgia, tomorrow – who knows – parts of Russia itself? The mutual suspicions of 1914 spring worryingly to mind.
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My Comment: I have a contrary point of view. For any political settlement to take hold in Ukraine .... it has to be supported by the majority of the people. They must have a say in their future .... and they must participate in the political process. For eastern Ukraine .... the people in the region must be given the right to choose what they want .... to stay in Ukraine, to vote for independence, or to be a part of Russia .... it is up to them to decide on what they want .... not Putin, not Poroshenko, and definitely not from the EU or the U.S..
Unfortunately .... I predict that much of this will not happen. Moscow, Kiev, Berlin, Washington .... this is where the future of eastern Ukraine is now being decided upon .... and not in the villages, towns, and cities of eastern Ukraine.
6 comments:
Mr. Editor,
I have some things to say to you, but I want you to know that I say them with respect and appreciation for all the work you do on this site, which I find useful in my daily work.
Would you have condoned the secession of the American South prior to the Civil War?
Secession would be all well and good as we're going to see in Scotland. This is different.
This is seccession at the point of a gun, a foreign gun. If you don't think that any of this would have happened without Putin's and Russia's influence, you're blind. This is a bully snapping up pieces of a foreign country because they were in their sphere of influence twenty years ago.
This is wrong, and it shouldn't be allowed to happen. And any amount of justification you use is not going to work.
I understand you have family there, so this must be extremely difficult for you. I can't imagine what it would be like knowing that my family was in teh middle of a war zone.
But this. Is. WRONG.
And I'm pretty sure you know it.
+1
Good point Trevor. But I have found that every situation is different. Case in point .... I now live in Quebec, Canada which has always had a strong secessionist movement. I can understand in the past why there was a lot of support for such a cause .... discrimination, lack of opportunities, forcing families into the English educational system, a bloody history, etc. .... if I was a French Quebecer during this time .... I would probably be wanting my own own country. But today ... there is no need for independence .... there is an acceptance of the French fact and culture .... and this alone has helped in taming separatist desires. Civil discourse and compromise is what achieved this state of affairs.
The U.S. civil war was originally a battle over states rights .... that then morphed into human rights. But it was a conflict that was coming long before the civil war broke out ... and thank God for the U.S. that it did.
Eastern Ukraine also has a long history of conflict .... and it was happening long before even Putin showed up in Moscow. But compromise and respect of one's cultural rights kept the situation quiet. What made it blow up was the passing after February's revolution of legislation in Kiev that curtailed language/culture, force Ukrainian in Russian schools, and enforced discrimination in the government and work place. No surprise .... when the interim government took over in April they eliminated these laws .... but the damage was already done.
Last year ... there was zero support for independence in eastern Ukraine. When the revolution occurred in February .... maybe 10% (tops). Passing laws that discriminated against Russians .... about 50%. Sending in the military and bombing residential areas .... 90-100%. Did Putin make the situation worse .... definitely .... but the real blame must go where it belongs .... to the idiots in Kiev who started this mess in the first place .... and to the idiots in eastern Ukraine who took advantage of the situation for their own political and personal reasons.
I think there is always more to blame than just one side (not matter which). Not just in Ukraine, but also in many other countries (almost every war from the past 5 years) started with the similar situation. There is no problem with when someone show what he think, protest, or even ask the gov./prime minister to resign. But when the more "bloody/radical" element join to these group and take their voices, then come the part when people also make steps against each others. I do not really care about party and ideology politics, but the "far/radial" views always a starting part of these conflicts, no matter where on Earth you are. Even in February it was clear that there will be death and blood. If back then instead of the radical element a normal center or mixed experts would put in charge, I'm sure they would choose the peacefull way, and everything would be different, but this is just a theory, no matter what we think, we will never know what would happened.
I can't call a protester as hero who beat a police officer, no matter for what reason, and I can't do the same with any other fighter who joined to the war by their will. It's angering that because of the some, the many suffer, but as long as peoples don't see what the war is, what a revolution is, and how much suffer they may have, they will do the same mistakes over and over again. Everyone who effected in Syria, Lybia, Ukraine and other places, say the same, they never expected this much suffer, and belived that everything will be better for the next day. There is always a peacefull way, no matter how bad or hard the things going on, but the violent one seems to be more "honored".
I see the radicalisation happening in my country (EU member, middle-europe) and I just could hope that I will not experiance anything that happening in Ukraine or Syria, being a reality in my life. Basically the only motivation why I spend dozens of hours in every week related to ongoing conflicts, to understand these conflicts, and with every possible ways I have, to persuasion others that the violance is not a solution in any political or other subject, and the suffer or the many could be avoided. Seeing all the massacre, execution, war footages, the death of 10+ thousend, even if it's only on videos, is just change the person. But thats just me.
mlacix .... one thing that this blog has taught me is that there are always consequences when one decides to go down a road that will upset the order of things. Sometimes going down this road is necessary .... the American civil war is one case. Other times .... and I would say most of the time .... not so. The Ukraine civil war this year is one of those conflicts that never should have happened .... but nationalism and historical hatreds helped by outsiders (Russia, EU, U.S., etc.) got in the way, and the good people were too slow to stop it.
Libya, Syria, etc. .... this blog has been covering these conflicts and wars since day one .... and it always amazes me that no one ever expected the worst case scenario arising. But that is what usually happens in most countries .... once the old order is broken .... evil usually takes advantage of the situation .... and it usually triumphs.
On a side note .... as you know my nationality is Russian .... who would have thought that a hundred years ago .... when World War One started ... that once the old institution of the Czar was swept aside we would have the Bolsheviks coming to power that in the end resulted in decades of horror, war, mass murder, and suffering on an unbelievable scale. Sighhh .... consequences .... always be prepared for the consequences.
Yeah, you are right, there are some, limited cases when a revolution is needed in some way.
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