A boy sits on an armored personnel carrier as he poses for a picture during a parade in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, September 14, 2014. REUTERS/Marko Djurica
Why This Ukraine Ceasefire Will Stick -- Anatole Kaletsky, Reuters
The war in eastern Ukraine, which has had more impact on the European economy than any news coming out of Frankfurt or Brussels, appears to be ending. Despite the sporadic attacks that have wrecked previous ceasefire attempts.
Investors have mostly assumed that the ceasefire would not hold, either because Russian President Vladimir Putin is deceitful and greedy for more territorial conquest, or because Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko would not accept the splintering of his country that Russia demands. But this fashionable pessimism is probably wrong.
The ceasefire no longer relies on good faith or benevolence but on a convergence of interests: Putin has achieved all his key objectives, and Poroshenko recognizes that trying to reverse militarily the Russian gains would be national suicide.
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My Comment: Anatole Kaletsky analysis is spot on with how Russia sees the conflict ... unfortunately .... storm clouds and disturbing trends are starting to form in Ukraine .... especially the rise of nationalist groups and extremists .... Ukraine’s President Wowed Congress, But His Party Has a Dark Side -- Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast
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