Russian servicemen take part in a military parade rehearsal in Red Square, November 5, 2012. (Sergei Karpukhin / Courtesy Reuters)
Sanctions, Oil Price Slump May Slow Russian Military Upgrade -- Voice of America
Moscow, a major player in the global arms business, has worked to re-equip and modernize its armed forces in recent years as well as boost its international sales.
But Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist with CNA Corporation, a Washington-based think tank specializing in defense-related issues, says the drop in world oil prices, Western sanctions and limited manufacturing capacity may force Russia to slow those ambitions.
"My guess is that a lot of it will get pushed further down the road because they won't be able to afford as much as they allocated," Gorenburg told VOA.
Read more ....
My Comment: Russia's recent military buildup has been predicated on its economy growing. But it is true that the Russian economy is in trouble .... Falling oil, rising cucumber prices: how much trouble is Russia in? (The Guardian) .... and efforts to stop the slide are not working .... Rise in Russian interest rate fails to halt plunge in ruble as oil price slips again (The Guardian). And while past governments in Moscow have always chosen guns over butter .... today's Russia is different .... and I expect Russian President Putin and his government to juggle both .... continuing to modernize Russia's military (but at a slower pace), while maintaining services/pensions/etc.. Russia also has the advantage of having massive currency and gold reserves to ride out the hard times, which they are doing right now .... Russia Is Fighting Its Financial Problems By Selling The Gold They've Been Hoarding (Business Insider). But if this economic crisis continues for over a year .... all bets will then be off.
Update: Russia's Military Expansion 'Bigger' in 2015 But Still Lags Behind US and China -- IBTimes
2 comments:
Nemirovsky (Mogultai, wyradhe - very interesting Russian-language online commenter, IMHO) had a different idea: the government will slash pensions and services long before it will give up on militarisation. The international crisis gives it (like its Ukrainian counterpart) an excellent excuse to do so while keeping the people's outrage to a minimum.
I have also been reading these reports Daniel .... but the problem is that the people who will be targeted for these cuts are Putin's political base. Like politicians anywhere .... the golden rule is to not alienate your base. But we have to wait and see what happens.
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