Crumbling Oil Makes Putin More Dangerous: Expert -- Matthew J. Belvedere, CNBC
Russian President Vladimir Putin is being pushed "further into a corner" by falling oil prices, leaving him little option but to continue his aggression toward Ukraine and confrontation with the West, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Tuesday.
Putin has "gone all-in on an anti-U.S., must-keep-Ukraine nationalist engagement," Bremmer said on "Squawk Box." He said it's "completely inconceivable" for Putin to back down.
"This is what is behind all his approval ratings. It's behind who he now is as a leader," Bremmer said, adding that capitulation would "erode a lot of his power."
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My Comment: Oil does play a vital role in Russia's economy .... and for filling the coffers of the government .... but it is not the "make or break case" that the above CNBC report likes to suggest. Will Putin's popularity take a hit if Russia experiences a recession next year .... yes .... but will it make him "more dangerous" .... no. Putin's base of support comes from voters who have experienced hard times before (the collapse of the Russian economy in the early 1990s comes to my mind) .... and will give him the benefit of the doubt for a certain period of time. But if the recession stays on for a few more years .... his problem will be within Russia itself, and among his own political party and colleagues who will start to worry that they may lose in the next Russian Presidential election slated for 2018. The ones who will be "dangerous" are those who are around him, and who will not like to lose their privilege and power.
2 comments:
What is true is that the oil prices certainly won't kill him any time soon, or make him any less inclined to stand down militarily. He'd slash social spending before he touches military right now, partly because he knows he'd get away with it. Rather familiar.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2014/12/the-importance-of-cancellation-of-south.html?m=1
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