Daily Mail: Iran and Hezbollah are planning 'imminent' joint invasion of Israel's northern Galilee region according to 'high level intelligence'
* Israel carried out airstrike on convoy in Syria on Sunday killing 11 people
* Among them were commanders from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah
* Today Israeli general warns they were likely planning attack on Galilee
* Israel moving troops to region after Tehran warned of 'crushing response'
Update: Are Israel and Hizbollah on the brink of war? -- Raphael D. Marcus, King's College London/The Telegraph
WNU Editor: Questions and speculations on why a top Iranian General was with Hezbollah fighters in the Syrian Golan Heights are going to be debated among pundits/Israeli Generals/and observers for the short term (I personally believe that they were there to coordinate operations against Syrian rebels and not to attack Israel). But the outcome of this strike is now predictable, heightened tensions and a need for Hezbollah/Iran to retaliate. My prediction .... if it was not for the Syrian civil war and Hezbollah's deep involvement in it .... they would be launching mortar and missile strikes against northern Israel right now. But because they are involved in Syria's bloody and brutal civil war, and they are facing growing resentment within Lebanon itself .... I expect Hezbollah to hold back from any major strike .... for now. As for what Iran may do .... they are also in a quandary. The war against the Islamic State and supporting Syrian President Assad is their primary military focus right now .... not launching retaliatory raids against Israel. But they will have to respond to maintain their credibility among their supporters in the region ... so expect something in the days/weeks/months ahead.
4 comments:
First step, will be to take out the Israeli/Jordanian/al Nusra foot holds to the west of Damascus,
Israel and Jordan will use airstrikes and artillary to try to prevent this, but the PR for them will be bad.
Second step is that Syria/Iran/Hizboallah will militarize the demilitarized Golan, which will be another major cash and manpower suck for Israel, and leave them with 4, instead of three "active" fronts.
Jay. I agree with your first two points .... but as to the third (second step) .... the Golan is already militarized.
Israel has long mitarized the Golan, Syria on the other hand, after the Lebanon War, pulled back from the Golan, ( they only had the downslopes), and re-established defensive lines on the flat land, out of range of IDF artillary and missile strikes.
The Syrians only ran patrols and watchposts in the Golan, which is why for Israel and Jordan, establishing al Nusra in the Golan simply consisted of moving them, via Turkey, from the East, to the Jordanian Border, where they just walked in.
The Syrian Druze, with the help of Hizboallah and Al Quds, have become some of the most effective SAA fighting groups, and as soon as possible, Syria will move them from the North East, to their home villages in the West, to push out al Nusra. Once that is done, they will tunnel and bunker the Syrian Golan like Hizboallah has Southern Lebanon.
I agree with the first two points. I also agree that the Syrian civil war is keeping Iran busy for now.
I think that Iran's primary response will be terror directed at a Jewish target somewhere outside of Israel. Iran's response will be something like Iran's attack on the Jewish community centers in Argentina a few years ago.
Iran needs to avoid creating a provocation that provides Israel an clear justification to attack Iran's nuclear program. A direct invasion of Israel itself would be such a provocation, and would also undermine those in the West who want to make additional concessions to Iran now.
In fact, I think that these reports of an Iranian/Hezbollah invasion are not really in response to the air strike, but instead likely Iran's warning to Israel that an invasion will follow Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program.
From the perspective of the ruthless ayatollahs in Iran, such casualties are inevitable and no cause for despair; Iran has plenty of men, and generals. If Israel kills a few Iranians, Iran has replacements in plenty.
What matters to the ayatollahs is to have nuclear weapons. For that, they need to avoid a Western or Israeli strike for awhile. With President Obama, Iran is assured of no Western strike. That leaves Israel as the only power that could upset Iran's nuclear plans. So, for now, Iran will avoid a major, direct confrontation with Israel.
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