Fars News/Reuters
Harry Kazianis, Real Clear Defense: How Iran Would Go to War Against America
While all sides here in Washington battle to shape public opinion over the Iran nuclear deal, we should not kid ourselves—this is not Obama’s “Nixon goes to China” moment, nor should we expect Air Force one to touch down in Tehran anytime soon.
Call me a pessimist, but I am not that impressed. There is a long way to go from a “framework” to an actual hard deal—with decades of mistrust making the road to a deal even longer and tougher. So before we start awarding Nobel Prizes, a hard look at the facts when it comes to the U.S.-Iranian relationship are in order.
WNU Editor: A partial analysis on what could unfold in the event of war .... and what it concludes should give everyone pause.
9 comments:
I always hated silkworm missiles. they have more than twice the warhead that a harpoon has.
With a flight time of under 1.5 minutes, what is not to like?
http://blog.carljohnsonphoto.com/?p=4963
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-outlines-key-steps-and-actors-potential-straits-hormuz-closure
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TuhEqQeHNc
Unless we are prepared to launch a Time-On-Target pre-emptive strike with our Ohio-class SSGNs against Republican Guard forces (missile sites, small boat flotilla bases, etc.) we are going to take some initial losses against the swarm attacks the Iranians will likely use. They've tried to wargame this for years, and every time they try the simulation is halted because the damage is so overwhelming.
This may be changing with the placement of the ROlling Airframe MIssile, ESSM, and 25mm autocannons on most ships, but there is still a vulnerability. And I think that sacrificing dozens of small boats for a Nimitz-class carrier is something they will see as a good trade.
Seriously though, this CAPTCHA system is so annoying...
I agree Trevor about the CAPTCHA system. Even I am stuck with it, and there is nothing that I can do about it. Google is forcing everyone to do it.
This article didn't comment on the fact that the US does have a military presence and established bases/military infrastructure in neighboring Afghanistan.
While Iran may deny the US the Strait of Persian Gulf and/or the Gulf of Oman, the US could theoretically, with a land invasion, push from Afghanistan into Iran, and perhaps swing southwards to secure a beachhead. Land forces attacking from the rear to eliminate shore defenses and give the US Mine Countermeasure ships the freedom to clear the seas so landing can commence could perhaps be a viable tactic?
I see Iran countering this by launching their own preemptive attack, in coordination with their sea attack, into Afghanistan to deny the US this route and to directly inflict damage on the US military's capability in Afghanistan.
Countering Iran's counter, the US would have to recognize war to be imminent and send more troops to safeguard the Afghani/Iranian Border.
Sorry for the long post, but discussing strategy and hypothetical wars is one of my favorite pastimes!
What are your thoughts? Great blog by the way. Have been a reader for time. (First comment!)
Persian Gulf, not "Strait of Persian Gulf" ***
Anon comment all you want .... I read everything that is posted.
But do you respond to all comments?
I asked for your thought on the thru-Afghanistan route of attack. I am sure you are much more experienced than I am on the matters of warfare & foreign relations, so I was just wondering what you think.
On a side note, are you acquainted with McGill's quality? I got accepted there a month ago and am planning to study Political Science/ International relations or policy, and perhaps go to law school after.
Right now I am considering all my options, and I'll take opinions from anywhere, haha.
Thanks again!
I try my best to respond to all comments .... unfortunately .... I am sometimes limited by time. So it is a choice .... spend some time responding to a comment, or spending time to make a new post. I usually go the new post route .... but sometimes .... if a topic is dear to me .... I will respond to a comment.
As to your interest in McGill .... yes .... I am very familiar with the university. When I was working for ICAO (the UN's civil aviation organization that is based in Montreal), I took the time to get a BSc. at McGill (I also have two degrees from Moscow). One of my best friends got his Poli-Sci degree degree at McGill, followed with a law degree at Queens University (he is now the Royal Bank's top lawyer). He vouches for the bachelor's program at McGill big time .... and it is a good stepping stone to other things .... but that was a long time ago. The problem with McGill is the weather .... it is bitterly cold here in winter. If I had a choice .... I would go to Stanford .... at least you are an hour or two away from wine country .... or you do not have to confront -20 C weather all the time. Mind you .... McGill's tuition is cheaper than Stanford .... so that works in its favor. And Montreal is a unique city .... and a great place to be during summer.
I must have forgotten to tell you I am from Toronto, so I'm used to the cold weather very well. Walking my dog in -30 (with windchill) is a common thing for me.
As for Stanford, I never really thought about applying out of country... Perhaps it's too late now, but being (somewhat) close to my home here in Toronto does provide a comfort factor. Maybe a transfer after first year?
I appreciate the reply, and of I forgot of course you as all of us are busy with work and life (I'm honestly surprised how you're not a full time blogger, considering the amount of information you share on your blog).
But maybe you'll give me special reply status from now on, considering we're not that different - I come from Serbia when I was young, escaping the NATO bombings, and perhaps I'll be studying in McGill and enjoying the gorgeous city that's Montreal. Just our age is the difference, haha.
I joke haha. Keep up the great work, enjoying your blog as always.
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