Another Ukraine War This Summer?

A Pro-Russian separatist walks past a destroyed tank at Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of Donetsk, August 28, 2014. Credit: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Michael Weiss and James Miller, Daily Beast: New Putin Invasion Coming This Summer

Moscow says it’s sticking to a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, it’s piling up troops and weapons for something that doesn’t look so peaceful.

The war in Ukraine may have faded largely from international headlines, but Vladimir Putin’s drip-drip invasion continues. In the last two weeks, forensic evidence, some of which has been reported by monitor organizations and senior Western diplomats, the rest corroborated by eyewitness photography and video, only confirms what the U.S. fears most: A summer offensive is inevitable.

On May 5, the Ukrainian government released new data which says that they have lost 28 towns to Russian-backed separatists since February 18. That was the day the strategic town of Debaltsevo, which guarded a key highway to separatist-controlled regions, slipped from Ukraine’s control. The map of separatist territory is as alarming as it is illustrative, especially when it is combined with the daily reports of ceasefire violations and fighting coming out of both the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and Kiev.

WNU Editor: This article is written from the Ukraine government's point of view .... and the part of this article that caught my attention was their explanation on US Sec. of State John Kerry's critical comments on Ukrainian President Poroshenko's remarks that he would launch another military offensive to take Donetsk airport. But the fact is that all sides are now gearing up for war .... conscription is now the rule of the law in Ukraine and all of the government's resources are being diverted to the military (coupled with U.S. and NATO assistance), and on the rebel side ... they have the factories and installations to pump out weapons (this region has always been the industrial heartland for Ukraine .... including weapons manufacturing), and with additional help from Moscow and "Russian volunteers" plus more advanced equipment .... are building up a formidable force. I also know that in eastern and southern Ukraine .... predominantly where Russian-Ukrainians dominate .... a low level intensity war is now underway against Ukrainian soldiers that is producing casualties everyday .... and these soldiers are nowhere near the front-lines. Recent Ukraine government laws and policies targeting the country's minority Russian population has also exacerbated relations .... and with no desire for talks and negotiations .... from all sides .... the groundwork is now being laid for another war.

My prediction .... the Ukraine government is in the middle of an imploding economy and growing public bitterness on the present state of affairs. Within the government itself .... nationalists are calling for a more forceful military response to the east and to face-up to Russia .... and they are positioning themselves to dictate government policy. On the rebel side .... they are frustrated with what they see are daily artillery strikes .... and many of them still believe in creating a "Novorossiya" (New Russia) ... even to the point of using their military forces to achieve it. Absent any talks or negotiations (and zero are forecast) .... coupled with the U.S. - NATO on one side and Russia on the other side both supporting and influencing their respective allies .... the ingredients are ready for a major escalation in the conflict.

On a personal note .... I have numerous relatives in Ukraine. All of their kids (of military age) are now out of the country, and one of my cousins (who was a major media personality on business affairs) has left the country because of threats to her life. All of my Ukrainian friends are suffering .... they are bitter at the Ukraine government, they are bitter at Putin, and .... what concerns me .... they are most bitter at themselves. Last year I gave Ukraine President Poroshenko one year to correct the situation .... he was elected with a mandate to bring peace, and if he failed in that he would be facing a major uprising by the end of 2015/beginning of 2016. He has failed .... and what may replace him is becoming truly frightening.