How China And The U.S. Could Go To War

A color guard of US and Chinese flags awaits the plane of China's President Hu Jintao at Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland in this April 12, 2010 file photo. President Barack Obama unveiled a defense strategy on Thursday that would expand the US military presence in Asia but shrink the overall size of the force as the Pentagon seeks to reduce spending by nearly half a trillion dollars after a decade of war. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters/File

Robert Farley, National Interest: 3 Ways China and the U.S. Could Go to War in the South China Sea

Here are three ways in which tensions in the South China Sea might lead to conflict.

Neither China nor the United States want war, at least not in the near future. China’s military buildup notwithstanding, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its components are not ready to fight the United States. The U.S., for its part, would surely prefer to avoid the chaos and uncertainty that any military conflict with China would create.

Nevertheless, both China and the United States are making commitments in the South China Sea that each may find difficult to back away from. Over the past two weeks, these commitments have generated a war of words that analysts of the relationship have found troubling. The key problems focus on China’s efforts to expand (or create) islands in the Spratlys, which could theoretically provide the basis for claims to territorial waters. The insistence of the United States on freedom of navigation could bring these tensions to a boil. Here are three ways in which tensions in the South China Sea might lead to conflict.

WNU Editor: There are actually many scenarios that could come into play where a shooting may start .... but my focus would be on an air incident spiraling out of control and/or a regional disagreement that results in a war that draws the U.S. in because of treaty obligations.