TAIPEI — A new RAND report challenges the US military to rethink a war with China. The report examines US and Chinese military capabilities in 10 operational areas, producing a “scorecard” for each, from four years: 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. Each of the scorecards evaluates capabilities in the context of geography and distance, each of the scorecards evaluates capabilities in the context of two scenarios: a Taiwan invasion and a Spratly Islands campaign. These scenarios center on locations that lie roughly 160 km and 940 km, respectively, from the Chinese coastline.
The 430-page report, U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1997-2017, was written by 14 scholars, including RAND’s wargaming whiz David Shlapak; modeling and simulation specialist Jeff Hagen; Kyle Brady, formerly with Lawrence Livermore; and operations researcher Michael Nixon.
WNU Editor: This executive study to this 430 page RAND study can be read here .... U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1997-2017 (RAND). The full report is here. Bottom line .... China's military is rising, and in the event of a future conflict and using the RAND study as a guideline, I predict that such a war would then escalate into a conflict that would quickly become the most destructive war since the Second World War (and that prediction does not include nuclear weapons being used). In the event that nuclear weapons are used .... such a war would then quickly become the most destructive war in the history of mankind. Yup .... a sobering analysis from the RAND group.
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