With reports that Russia may have deployed military personnel and aircraft to Syria, the White House is monitoring suggestions that Russia has targeted ISIS. (AFP)
IBTimes: White House Investigating Reports That Russia Has Begun Military Operations In Syria
The White House is closely monitoring reports that Russia has begun military operations in Syria, according to a tweet from Agence France-Presse's White House reporter, Andrew Beatty. While there is no indication about who or what Russia is targeting in its alleged military operation, it's likely to be against the Islamic State group, given that the terror group openly admitted attacking a Russian military base in Dagestan on Wednesday.
Russia also shares a close diplomatic relationship with Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime in Damascus, which counts the Islamic State group as an enemy. This means that any operation against government-run Syria is unlikely.
Update #1: White House 'Monitoring' Reports Of Russian Military In Syria -- Radio Free Europe
Update #2: White House 'monitoring' reports Russian military is in Syria -- Middle East Online
WNU Editor: Russian President Puitin's response to these reports is interesting .... Premature to talk about Russian military action against IS: Putin (AFP). When Russians say "premature", what they actually mean is "not now" .... translating .... "they are making plans to escalate their involvement in the Syrian conflict".
5 comments:
In case Russia really plans on a decisive intervention with more than a few air-force assets, Assad may really get his secular state saved, for now.
But, according to my understanding of the whole situation, it would be insane for Russia to involve itself in something of a ground-war, equal to what they have had in Afghanistan. Rather it´d probably make sense to wage an ambitious air campaign in concert with aggressive raids by special-forces.
IS is no illusive citizen-militia without firm structure, it is highly dependend on its infrastructure, be it oil, food and water supply, electricity, communications ... Training centers, storage dumps, ... , roads, bridges ...
I once read a concept of employment draft for Paras operating in raid-fashion in battalion-sized formations in the opponents back, only for a few hours at a time before being withdrawn and "replaced" by another assault-force raiding a different part of the enemies forces.
The strategic situation in Syria would allow such kind of "rich" use of air-mobile troops, and could possibly cripple the offensive and economic capabilities of the caliphate in a surprisingly short time.
This is of course, if "one" would be willing to take the losses that would come with such ambitious operations.
Utho,
I don't know some of the things out there are fairly creditable, but it still brings me back to, what would be the pay off for such a gamble. Putin's greatest asset is his home popularity, how long would that last with some IS videos of Russian troops beheaded or worse.
I do agree, emphatically, that air mobile raiding operations would be very successful.
Actually I think that a way to get ISIS would be to take Raqqa (their self declared home base) with light air mobile infantry in division strength with an armored brigade to be added and enough air to cover a 40 kilometer radius. Then settle down and wait, they would have to come, couldn't lose that kind of face and the severing of communications with Iraq. Could it be another Dien Bien Phu, maybe. That would depend on the political resolve of the assaulting country and the acceptance of casualties.
James,
a Dien Bien Phu scenario in the rather open landscape of Syria seems little likely to me, especially with appropriate airforce support. But I agree that any sort of holding-operation could have the potential to produce something akin.
Beyond that, from my background in broadly speaking "history and neuro-background of propaganda", I´d say that one indespensible component of the charme (and PR) of the US was(!) the credible impression of being the moral world-policeman; a guise that has had big influence on the hearts and minds of ppl and thus on their judgement.
Throughout and since the cold war, the moralizing US propaganda was very erosive on large parts of soviet(-block) population, at least those exposed to it.
This may now change.
With Ukraine, Russia has a serious image problem at home and abroad - and is in dire need for some good PR, externally and internally.
The move to Syria could give russians the impression of being "the white knights" of ... everyone who hates the caliphate; if presented appropriately through the media.
And ... any dismembered russian soldiers would simply be able to reaffirm the old fears form the theatre-siege in Moscow and the Beslan tragedy; same as with reported IS-attacks on police-posts in Dagestan.
So. from my point of view it´s a question of painting the operation in Syria as a mixture between "Self-Defense" and "Doing the world a favour", in a finely tuned mix according to the present demographics.
ISIS is (probably justly) so demonized, anyone who kicks them is sure of scoring some sympathy. And the more intensely they behead, the greater the image-gain for anyone kicking them in the goolies. :-D
Utho,
Hope so!
Dien Bien Phu was made possible by little more than a score of captured American howitzers captured in Korea and transported by the PLA. Theses howitzers outranged the French artillery and we setup on favorable terrain vis-a-vis the French artillery.
What does IS have for SAMs in quality and quantity and what does Russia have to counter it and what casualties can they accept?
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