Does Russia Want A Syrian Deal?

Matthew Dal Santo, The Interpreter: Assad's Moscow Cameo Shows That Russia Wants A Deal

This week, unexpectedly, Syrian President Bashar Assad turned up in Moscow. He hasn't been seen outside Syria since unrest broke out four years ago.

The trip makes two important statements.

The first is that, thanks to Russian air strikes, the Syrian state — the actual Syrian state recognised under international law — is breathing again. Assad holed up in Damascus looked like a Ghaddafi waiting to happen. Assad in the Kremlin looks like the head of a country with a seat at the UN.

The second is that Moscow wants a political solution to the Syrian crisis. Many rushed to interpret Assad's Moscow cameo as a calculated Russian show of defiance. But the Russian President used the few words he gave journaliststo repeat Russia's commitment to a political compromise ('a long-term settlement based on a political process that involves all political forces, ethnic and religious groups'), one which Putin hoped could be achieved 'in close contact with the other global powers and with the countries in the region' — above all, the US and its Middle Eastern allies, but also Europe.

It was a reiteration of the messages Moscow has been sending for weeks.

WNU Editor: I am sure that Russian diplomats, analysts, and experts have told Russian President Putin that Assad's government is in a stalemate situation .... it can hold its territory but it will have problems in re-taking rebel held territory. And since a stalemate will not .... in the long run .... benefit neither Syria or Russia .... a search for a diplomatic solution is probably the best option. Unfortunately .... I am not optimistic that the other side .... the Syrian rebels, the Jihadists, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states .... and more importantly the U.S. .... are really interested in a diplomatic solution. Couple this with the rise of the Islamic State .... and the carnage and chaos that it is causing in both Syria and Iraq .... there are too many actors and way too many extremists to find a common solution. My prediction .... Putin's efforts will be rebuffed, and he will escalate Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict.

Update: A Russian view on Putin's Syrian plans .... Putin Is Angling for a Quick Exit From Syria (Vladimir Frolov, Moscow Times)